Premier League odds: Top 10 beckons for Burnley

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Unlike the top-four and top-six races, which come with spots in Europe, there’s no actual reward for finishing in the top half of the table.

Still, a top-10 finish serves as a point of pride for clubs, and while it’s not one of the more popular markets, there’s certainly value to be found in it for bettors.

Here’s how the middle of the Premier League table looked when the season was suspended.

POS. – position; PTS – points; GD – goal difference; MP – matches played

And here are the odds for clubs to secure a top-10 finish.

I’m of the belief that the top-nine teams will remain in the top nine through the end of the season. Wolves and Sheffield United are backed by excellent managers in Nuno Espirito Santo and Chris Wilder, and that will keep them competing for a spot in Europe next season. Tottenham will receive a massive boost by the return of Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, and Moussa Sissoko, aiding in their top-four push, while Arsenal have a game in hand over all the clubs below them and still have four matches remaining against the bottom-six teams.

That leaves one spot up for grabs, currently shared by Burnley and Crystal Palace. The prices on these two clubs are about the same, with the Clarets sitting at +190 and the Eagles at +200, but they have contrasting outlooks.

Burnley are excellently managed by Sean Dyche, who’s a terrific motivator and tactician. There’s cohesion in the team with little turnover in personnel, and that familiarity will aid in the club’s form upon the restart. Where Burnley have typically struggled is against the “big six” sides. The Clarets are 1-2-7 in games against the “big six” this season but have just two such matches remaining, while four of their final nine fixtures are against the bottom-six sides, with whom they are 5-2-1 against this season. Expect a strong finish from Dyche’s side, as the club provides excellent value to keep its place in the top half of the table at +190.

Should the Clarets falter, don’t expect Palace to take advantage. Roy Hodgson’s side has overachieved considerably this season. Jordan Ayew has been serviceable up top, but there simply aren’t enough goals on their side. The Eagles have been the beneficiaries of some timely scoring, but with a lack of goalscorers on their side, that’s not something they can keep relying on.

Palace also have a daunting fixture list ahead of them, with seven of their last nine matches coming against top-10 sides, including Liverpool (away), Leicester (away), Chelsea, Manchester United, Wolves (away), and Tottenham. The Eagles are likelier to drop to 14th by season’s end than they are to break into the top half of the table.

Everton are strong candidates to leapfrog both Burnley and Palace and finish inside the top 10, with oddsmakers pegging them as favorites to do so at -140. The Toffees have experienced something of a resurgence since Carlo Ancelotti took over, posting a 5-3-3 record in the league under the Italian. That being said, their remaining schedule poses a number of hurdles with three of their next four matches coming against Liverpool, Leicester, and Tottenham. If they can get through those relatively unscathed, there’s a clear path to a top-10 finish, but I’m not comfortable backing the Toffees at such a short price.

Sitting a bit further down the table are Southampton, who are especially interesting at +700. The Saints have bounced back impressively following a miserable start to the campaign in which they lost eight of their first 12 matches, and there’s a lot to like about this side under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Southampton had the league’s worst home record when the season was suspended and will be one of the clubs least effected by playing in an empty stadium. Their toughest remaining fixtures are against Arsenal, Everton, and the two Manchesters, but there’s nothing especially daunting about those matches. If they can claim even six points from those four fixtures, the rest of their schedule maps out well for them to break into the top 10.

Best bets: Burnley +190, Southampton +700

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.