Monday’s deadline for franchised players to agree to long-term contracts passed without deals for the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs and the Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Pollard.
The three running backs were the only players who received the franchise tag not to have reached a long-term contract, and they had until 4 p.m. ET Monday to get one. They will now have to play the 2023 season on their franchise tenders, worth $10.091 million for running backs. Pollard has already signed his tender. Barkley and Jacobs, however, remain unsigned and stayed away from their teams’ offseason programs.
“It is what it is,” Barkley tweeted Monday.
Because they are unsigned, Barkley and Jacobs cannot be fined for not attending training camp, which begins for veterans on both the Giants and Raiders on July 25. Barkley and Jacobs are not expected to report to training camp with the rest of their teams, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Monday. The two unsigned stars will lose money only if they miss regular-season games and forfeit game checks.
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The player to most recently sit out an entire season was running back Le’Veon Bell in 2018.
The Giants’ contract negotiations with Barkley did not go smoothly from the start. The Giants made an initial offer during the bye week last November that Barkley never seriously considered, multiple sources told ESPN’s Jordan Raanan. The two sides then tabled talks until after the season.
The Giants’ offers to Barkley increased earlier this year, reaching a point where a deal could max out at $14 million per season, sources told Raanan. But the sticking point was guaranteed money and structure. They never got close to his satisfaction.
Romelu Lukaku has one fewer potential suitor in the summer transfer window after Inter Milan surprisingly ended their negotiations for the out-of-favor Chelsea striker, according to transfer insider Fabrizio Romano.
Inter reportedly lodged a final offer potentially worth €40 million – €35 million up front with a further €5 million in add-ons – and were waiting for a response from Chelsea. However, the Nerazzurri are apparently furious that Lukaku held talks with Italian rivals Juventus and have therefore kiboshed their plans to sign the Belgian marksman.
Juventus put together a bid for Lukaku that’s only valid if they sell Paris Saint-Germain-linked Dusan Vlahovic by Aug. 4, Romano reports. Juve’s offer is €37.5 million plus €2.5 million in add-ons.
Lukaku has also been subject to interest from the Saudi Pro League. He was offered £20 million a season by Al-Hilal, according to a report by The Guardian’s Ed Aarons in June.
Lukaku won the Serie A, Coppa Italia, and Supercoppa Italiana with Inter. The Milan club signed him from Manchester United ahead of the 2019-20 campaign before his relentless scoring earned a €115-million move to Chelsea in the summer of 2021. After an underwhelming term with the Blues, he was sent back to Inter on loan last season.
The 30-year-old scored 14 goals across 37 appearances in all competitions for Inter during the 2022-23 campaign.
With the summer transfer period in full swing, the rumor mill is in overdrive on a daily basis throughout world football. theScore will keep you up to date on all the latest transfer buzz until the end of the window.
July 15
Barca can’t afford Cancelo: Even the cost of signing Joao Cancelo on loan is too much for Barcelona, so they’re returning to their plan of signing a young right-back. Pablo Maffeo is linked with a move. (SPORT and TV3 via AS)
Fabinho on his way out: The midfielder’s transfer to Saudi Arabia seems inevitable after he was left out of Liverpool’s preseason camp. Al-Ittihad bid £40 million for Fabinho. (BBC Sport)
Filling the void: Liverpool are seeking potential replacements for Fabinho. The Reds are considering Southampton’s Romeo Lavia, Bayern Munich’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Fiorentina’s Sofyan Amrabat. (Daily Mail)
French fancy Vlahovic: Dusan Vlahovic could be headed to Paris Saint-Germain this summer, 18 months after his €91.6-million transfer to Juventus. The move could trigger Romelu Lukaku’s switch to Turin. (Fabrizio Romano)
Tadic the short-term solution: Some Manchester United fans are urging the club to move for Dusan Tadic after he left Ajax. The 34-year-old could help with Erik ten Hag’s No. 9 problem. (Manchester Evening News)
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Colwill alternative: Levi Colwill isn’t for sale, so Brighton & Hove Albion have already reached an agreement over personal terms with Fiorentina’s Igor Julio. The Seagulls’ official offer for Igor is imminent. (Fabrizio Romano)
Taty set for €15M transfer: New York City FC’s Valentin “Taty” Castellanos, who spent last season on loan at La Liga’s Girona, is set to undergo a medical ahead of his €15-million move to Lazio. (Cesar Luis Merlo)
Digne available: Aston Villa are open to offers for left-back Lucas Digne this summer. Napoli could try to sign the Frenchman, who fell behind Alex Moreno in the pecking order at Villa Park. (Mundo Deportivo)
Alex Scott in high demand: Wolverhampton Wanderers are prepared to offer at least £20 million for Bristol City’s 19-year-old midfielder in an attempt to beat competition from West Ham United and Bournemouth. (Telegraph)
Not forgot about Che: Fulham and Crystal Palace could prey on relegated Southampton for Che Adams. The 27-year-old forward is valued at around £15 million. (Daily Mail)
Casadei wanted for promotion push: New Leicester City boss Enzo Maresca is keen to sign Chelsea’s Italy Under-21 star Cesare Casadei on loan for the 2023-24 Championship campaign. (Telegraph)
Surridge to MLS: Sam Surridge, whose goals helped fire Nottingham Forest to the Premier League, is close to joining Major League Soccer’s Nashville SC for around £5 million. (The Athletic)
July 14
Bayern face battle for Kane: Paris Saint-Germain are willing to match any Bayern Munich offer for Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane. A potential move doesn’t hinge on whether Kylian Mbappe leaves. (The Independent)
Neymar on the market: Chelsea, previously linked with Neymar, remain vigilant on the situation. If the Brazilian star decides he wants a change of scenery after six years in Paris, the Blues could pounce. (Le Parisien)
Messy Lukaku negotiations: Inter Milan submitted an offer worth up to €40 million for the Chelsea outcast. Juventus will sign off on a similar bid if they sell Dusan Vlahovic. Inter are unhappy Lukaku spoke to Juve. (Fabrizio Romano)
Latest on Hendo: Talks between Al-Ettifaq and Liverpool over a fee for the English midfielder are ongoing. The Reds won’t accept a free transfer or “small” sum for their club captain. (Fabrizio Romano)
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Diaby in demand: Aston Villa’s €45-million offer for Bayer Leverkusen winger Moussa Diaby was rejected. The German club wants €60 million for the French international after his strong 2022-23 season. (Sky Sport Germany)
Cancelo’s bags packed: Cancelo, surplus to requirements at Manchester City, is Barcelona’s top priority at full-back. Another loan deal could be in the works for the Portuguese international. (Mundo Deportivo)
Colwill attracting interest: Chelsea defender Levi Colwill, 20, is in high demand following his impressive spell at Brighton & Hove Albion. Tottenham are the latest club to register interest in the rising star. (Evening Standard)
Red Devils getting creative: Manchester United submitted a cash-plus-player offer for Atalanta’s Rasmus Hojlund. But the Italians want a straight monetary deal and value the young striker at €100 million. (The Athletic)
Fulham stand firm: Al-Hilal’s second offer of around £35 million for Aleksandar Mitrovic was rejected. The Serbian striker wants to leave Craven Cottage for Saudi Arabia. (The Athletic)
Replacement for SMS: Lazio, having lost Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Saudi Arabia, are in talks to sign Leandro Paredes from PSG. The World Cup winner spent last season on loan at Juventus. (Sky Sport Italia)
July 13
Tottenham’s backup plan: If Kane leaves for Bayern Munich this summer, Spurs will try to sign Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic. Relations between the two clubs are strong after recent dealings. (Foot Mercato)
A possible plot twist: Paris Saint-Germain will do everything in their power to sign Kane this summer despite knowing that his current preference is to join Bayern Munich. (RMC Sport)
Onana to Old Trafford soon: Manchester United and Inter Milan are on the verge of finalizing an initial €50-million deal for goalkeeper Andre Onana. The Red Devils will pay €5 million in add-ons, too. (Fabrizio Romano)
Inter’s new netminder: With Onana’s move to Manchester imminent, Inter will try to sign both Yann Sommer of Bayern Munich and Anatoliy Trubin from Shakhtar Donetsk to revamp their goalkeeper position. (Fabrizio Romano)
Bonucci era ending: Juventus have informed captain Leonardo Bonucci that he’s no longer part of the club’s plans. The veteran defender, 36, is available on the market and free to initiate a transfer. (Goal Italia)
Big Mahrez offer: Al-Ahli want to sign Riyad Mahrez from Manchester City and are preparing a £30-million offer. The tricky winger could earn £25 million per season in Saudi Arabia. (The Athletic)
Fabinho could follow Hendo: Jordan Henderson’s move to Al-Ettifaq is progressing quickly, and another Liverpool midfielder could follow him to the Middle East, as Al-Ittihad are negotiating with Fabinho. (Fabrizio Romano)
West Ham getting restless: West Ham are growing frustrated with Arsenal over the time it’s taking to finalize Declan Rice’s transfer. Arsenal’s lawyers are taking longer than expected to prepare the paperwork. (Sky Sports)
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Pony up, Inter: A €30-million bid from Inter for Lukaku has been dubbed “insufficient” by Chelsea, but talks will continue between the two sides to find a solution for the Belgian forward. (The Guardian)
Atleti’s midfield overhaul: The Atletico Madrid brass held a “transfer summit” earlier this week, and identified Marco Verratti, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Amrabat, and Martin Zubimendi as primary midfield targets. (Marca)
Joao Felix being monitored: Manchester United, Newcastle, and Aston Villa are all keeping tabs on Joao Felix, who’s looked visibly frustrated upon his return to Atletico training and would welcome a fresh start. (Metro)
Double swoop for Forest: Nottingham Forest are working to sign both Willian and Anthony Elanga. Fulham are still trying to retain the Brazilian, who’s also of interest to Saudi Arabian clubs. (The Times)
Leipzig make a big splash: RB Leipzig have struck a €43-million deal with RC Lens to sign striker Lois Openda. The fee could eventually hit €49 million if performance bonuses are met. (L’Equipe)
Barca still active: If Barcelona fail in their pursuit of Bernardo Silva, the Catalan club will turn its attention to crafty Argentine Giovani Lo Celso, who spent last season on loan at Villarreal from Tottenham. (Mundo Deportivo)
Come to Besiktas: Besiktas submitted a modest €2.5-million offer for Arsenal center-back Rob Holding. That bid doesn’t meet the Gunners’ valuation and will be rejected. (The Athletic)
Lazio’s backup striker search: Lazio are looking for some insurance behind Ciro Immobile, and their primary target right now is Valentin “Taty” Castellanos of New York City FC. He would cost around €12 million. (Gianluca Di Marzio)
July 12
Pogba next in line: Paul Pogba, recently in Saudi Arabia, was offered a three-year contract worth €100 million. Both Al-Ittihad and Al-Ahli are pushing to sign the French midfielder, but he wants to remain in Turin. (Tuttosport)
Bayern exodus: Bayern Munich are trying to offload seven players, including Sadio Mane, Benjamin Pavard, Gravenberch, Yann Sommer, and Marcel Sabitzer, in order to land Tottenham’s Kane. (Sky Sport Germany)
Big Ange the salesman: New Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou will try to convince Kane to remain in north London. Part of his sales pitch could include a handsome new contract worth £400,000 per week. (Telegraph)
Hendo could leave: Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson is leaning toward accepting an offer from Al-Ettifaq that would quadruple his wages. Steven Gerrard, the manager of the Saudi club, is driving the pursuit. (The Athletic)
Chelsea still trimming squad: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Hakim Ziyech have been informed that they shouldn’t return to training until next week as the Blues look to find suitors for both out-of-favor players. (Daily Mail)
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Spurs’ new midfield: Tottenham could attempt to sign Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher. He’s viewed as an ideal replacement for Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg if the Dane moves to Atletico Madrid or a German club. (Telegraph)
Osimhen’s price tag: Outspoken Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis says only PSG can afford Victor Osimhen, adding he’ll only entertain an offer around €200 million for the Nigerian striker. (90min)
Tug-of-war for Zielinski: With Sergej Milinkovic-Savic now Saudi Arabia-bound, Lazio are eyeing Napoli’s Piotr Zielinski. But the Polish midfielder has also been offered a big contract from an unnamed Saudi club. (Calciomercato)
Mitrovic wants out: Fulham rejected a £25.5-million offer from Al-Hilal for striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. The 28-year-old Serbian, who led Fulham with 14 league goals last season, is open to joining the Saudi team. (The Guardian)
The race for Veiga: Celta Vigo midfielder Gabri Veiga is being followed by most of Europe’s top clubs this summer. Arsenal are the latest to show interest in the 21-year-old phenom, joining Spurs and Chelsea. (Le10Sport)
Ndiaye to France: Marseille are in “advanced” negotiations with Iliman Ndiaye over a five-year contract. Once personal terms are agreed, the French club will negotiate a fee with Sheffield United. (Fabrizio Romano)
Ramsey reunion: Cardiff City are trying to fight off Saudi interest to bring Aaron Ramsey back to the Welsh capital. The midfielder, who played last season at Nice, is a product of Cardiff’s youth academy. (The Guardian)
July 11
Saudis land another star: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is joining Al-Hilal in a €40-million transfer from Lazio. The imposing Serbian, the latest star to make the lucrative move, will sign a three-year contract. (Fabrizio Romano)
Big Bernardo Silva offer: Al-Hilal have informed Manchester City that they’re willing to fork over €70 million for the versatile Portuguese international, who has been one of the hottest names on the market this summer. (CBS Sports)
Kane wants Bayern: Tottenham superstar Kane, already the subject of two Bayern Munich bids – both rejected by Spurs – is keen on joining the Bundesliga champions. A third offer is being considered. (Julien Laurens)
Onana signing close: Inter Milan goalkeeper Andre Onana’s transfer to Manchester United is “advanced” and could be completed as early as this week once all the necessary documents have been finalized. (Daily Mail)
Lukaku saga rumbles on: The Belgian striker has been told he doesn’t have to report for preseason training until next week, with Chelsea hopeful a deal with Inter can be sealed before then. (Matt Law)
Maguire won’t come cheap: He may no longer be a key member of the team, but Manchester United will still demand around £50 million this summer for much-maligned defender Harry Maguire. (Manchester Evening News)
Cherki to replace Pulisic: With Christian Pulisic on his way to AC Milan, Chelsea are preparing an offer for Lyon’s Rayan Cherki. The 19-year-old has a contract until 2025 and is valued at €40 million by the French side. (ESPN)
Reece James’ loyalty: Despite interest from Real Madrid, Chelsea right-back James has pledged his allegiance to the Blues. The 23-year-old wants to become the new captain at Stamford Bridge. (Beautiful Game Podcast)
Caicedo talks up Chelsea: Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Moises Caicedo called Chelsea a “very big, historic and beautiful club” amid rumors of a potential transfer. The two clubs are engaged in talks. (El Universo)
Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Chelsea’s striker search: For all the money already spent under Todd Boehly’s reign, Chelsea still need a striker. Their current targets are Elye Wahi of Montpellier and Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic. (Evening Standard)
Juve’s contingency plan: Juventus have identified West Ham’s Gianluca Scamacca and Noah Okafor of Red Bull Salzburg as potential replacements if Vlahovic leaves Turin this summer. (Gianluca Di Marzio)
Barca looking to offload: After a disappointing 2022-23 season, Ferran Torres could be loaned out by Barcelona. The club would be willing to include a purchase option for any interested suitors, too. (Diario Sport)
PSG ready to make another splash: Paris Saint-Germain, already one of the busiest teams in the summer window, are leading the race for Randal Kolo Muani, the 24-year-old striker from Eintracht Frankfurt. (The Independent)
Liverpool want Schuurs: Torino center-back Perr Schuurs, 23, is being monitored by Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool, who are looking to add defensive depth without breaking the bank. (Football Insider)
ASM could be sold: Newcastle could sacrifice winger Allan Saint-Maximin, a fan favorite at St. James’ Park, to help fund a move for Harvey Barnes, who is expected to leave Leicester City after relegation. (The Telegraph)
Milan active on multiple fronts: AC Milan are working to strike a deal for midfielder Tijjani Reijnders of AZ Alkmaar, while the Rossoneri are also monitoring both Mehdi Taremi and Samuel Chukwueze. (Gianluca Di Marzio)
Angelino on the move again: The left-back’s nomadic career is set to continue at Galatasaray after the Turkish club agreed to sign him from RB Leipzig on loan with a purchase option. (Fabrizio Romano)
July 10
The Mbappe domino effect: Should Kylian Mbappe depart PSG this summer amid his contract standoff, the French giants would turn around and submit an opulent offer for Napoli striker Victor Osimhen. (Gazzetta dello Sport)
Man United eyeing Amrabat: Manchester United are monitoring Fiorentina’s Moroccan international Amrabat. While a move isn’t advanced right now, it could become a “hot topic” later in the window. (Florian Plettenberg)
Hojlund talks ongoing: The Red Devils are hot on the heels of Rasmus Hojlund and are preparing a second bid after their initial €40-million offer was rebuffed. Atalanta want €60 million for the 20-year-old Dane. (Nicolo Schira)
Emilio Andreoli / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Timber’s deal done: Jurrien Timber’s move from Ajax to Arsenal is only missing the official announcement. The Dutch defender, 22, completed his Arsenal medical before returning home for a farewell party. (Metro)
Mourinho eyes reunion: Jose Mourinho wants to reunite with Scott McTominay at Roma. The Portuguese boss is a big admirer of the Scottish midfielder from their time together at Manchester United. (Football Transfers)
Gerrard recruiting Zaha: New Al-Ettifaq coach Steven Gerrard talked with Wilfried Zaha in an effort to convince the free agent to head to Saudi Arabia. Zaha, 30, has an offer on the table to return to Crystal Palace. (Daily Mail)
Wolfsburg won’t budge: If Tottenham don’t meet the £40-million valuation for defender Micky van de Ven, Wolfsburg will happily keep hold of the young Dutchman for another season. (Wolfsburger Allgemeine)
Bill Barnwell, ESPN Staff WriterJul 13, 2023, 06:25 AM ET
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Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X’s and O’s, offseason transactions and so much more.
He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here: @billbarnwell.
Something feels wrong about what’s happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn’t re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.
Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.
Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April’s draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn’t happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.
A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It’s reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability.
None of this is brand-new, but the stress on running backs to produce and get paid before they’re cast aside feels more acute than ever. Has there been an even more significant shift in recent years than what has been perceived? Is it a case of analytics run amok? Are teams being foolish in how they’re valuing even the best backs? And is there any way to break the cycle and get running backs paid more money in the decades to come?
There’s no single factor dictating the situation with running backs, but let’s establish the playing field for the position before we focus on the four backs left in free agency.
Jump to a topic: Six reasons RBs have been devalued Have teams actually gone too far? Are star backs getting as much time? Why are there four veterans still available? What happens now with Barkley, Jacobs? RBs do deserve to get paid, right? How can the market change now?
When did the shift away from valuing star running backs happen?
Ask 10 people this question and you’re likely to get 10 different answers. The most recent example was a person who is eminently qualified to answer it: former Chargers and Broncos back Melvin Gordon, who won a Super Bowl last season without ever playing a snap for the Chiefs. Gordon tied it to Rams coach Sean McVay and star back Todd Gurley, suggesting McVay had regretted paying Gurley and had decided to rotate his backs from that point forward.
I certainly think the Rams regret giving Gurley an extension in 2018, as we’ll discuss in a minute, but the tactic reared its head before Gurley’s downswing and hasn’t reflected how L.A. has used its backs since. McVay has been comfortable using Cam Akers as something close to an every-down back when the coach and his back are simpatico, with the 2021 postseason win over the Buccaneers (in a game in which Akers was the worst player on the field) and the final few weeks of last season as examples. Akers, a second-round pick in 2020, isn’t getting paid significant money on his rookie deal, and McVay isn’t rotating his backs for the sake of keeping their value down.
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From my perspective, the running back value conversation dates back to McVay’s old boss and one of the league’s best offenses. Mike Shanahan’s Denver teams produced huge numbers with a series of unheralded rookies, undrafted free agents and journeymen rotating through at running back. The most famous and successful back of the bunch, Hall of Famer Priest Holmes rushed for 4,590 yards and 59 touchdowns for the Chiefs 2001-03. Evan Pinkus/AP Photo
We actually saw a shift away from the first-round pick as the lead back early in the 1990s, but the most dramatic change has come over the past decade. As recently as the final few years of the first decade of the 21st century, nearly half of top backs on teams were Round 1 picks. That figure has nearly been cut in half, with those players replaced by middle-rounds selections.
That change puts more running backs who are starting their careers in vulnerable positions. First-round picks make far more money than players drafted in the later rounds, and their contracts typically are fully guaranteed.
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The largest running back contract for a rookie was Reggie Bush’s six-year, $62 million pact as the No. 2 pick in 2007. Bush got $26.4 million guaranteed at signing, which has been topped only six times by veterans signing extensions since the 2011 CBA, even as the cap has more than doubled. Teams were assigned rookie pool allocations for cap purposes and generally negotiated off prior contracts at each draft slot, but the top of the first round became an undesirable place to land players at any position.
The slotting system in the 2011 CBA essentially eliminated negotiations for draft picks. Players received a slotted amount for where they landed, regardless of their position or pedigree. Cam Newton, the first No. 1 pick under the new CBA, signed a four-year deal for $22 million, less than half of Bradford’s guarantee. When Trent Richardson came off the board with the No. 3 pick in the 2012 draft, his four-year deal with the Browns was worth $20.5 million. While the guarantees were closer, Richardson’s average annual salary was about half of what Bush had inked with the Saints five years earlier, even under a more lucrative salary cap.
This might seem as if it made the landscape better for running backs, given that backs taken in the first round would be cheaper than they had been in years before. Instead, it made things worse because of where they ranked on the league’s financial spectrum. With a slotted system, players at more lucrative and difficult-to-fill positions became more valuable, given that they were worth more on the open market and their rookie deals became bigger bargains. The rise of the quarterback on a rookie deal, in particular, entirely changed the way teams built their rosters.
That gap has only continued to grow, as I documented in my pre-draft piece on Bijan Robinson, given that the running back market has stayed stagnant while other positions have grown along with (or faster than) the rise in the salary cap.
The drafts from 2006 to 2010 delivered a particularly brutal run of first-round running backs. Fourteen backs were drafted in Round 1 over this five-year span before the new CBA. Two were significant hits for their teams: Adrian Peterson won an MVP for the Vikings, while Chris Johnson posted a 2,000-yard season and made it to three Pro Bowls with the Titans. Marshawn Lynch developed into a superstar, but he did so for the Seahawks after the Bills gave up on him and shipped him off to Seattle in 2010.
Otherwise, these first rounds were mostly disappointing. The Panthers got solid stretches from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but Bush never lived up to expectations as a difference-maker in New Orleans. Darren McFadden failed to make a Pro Bowl after being taken as the No. 4 pick in one of the best drafts for backs in league history (2008). Felix Jones, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells and Laurence Maroney never turned into solid starters. It’s fair to wonder whether that frustrating stretch helped push teams away from considering backs as often in the first round.
Even after the first round and looking at more recent decisions, landing on the right backs in the draft is harder than you might think. Maybe you want to believe that some of the mistakes teams have made in the draft are just a product of foolish teams making subpar decisions. Well, who in the NFL is an authority on running the ball? Let’s go back to Kyle Shanahan, who has been able to build an effective rushing attack virtually everywhere he has gone. If anybody should know whom to target at running back, it’s the San Francisco coach, right?
While having a strong say in personnel with the 49ers, Shanahan has repeatedly prioritized backs who haven’t worked out. In 2017, he reportedly pounded the table to move up in the fourth round and draft Utah back Joe Williams, who never played an NFL snap. The Niners signed Jerick McKinnon to a massive deal in free agency in 2018, only for the former Vikings backup to tear his ACL.
Shanahan couldn’t have anticipated McKinnon’s injury, but he went back to the well the next season and signed away Tevin Coleman from the Falcons. Coleman averaged 3.5 yards per carry in San Francisco. In 2021, the 49ers used a third-round pick on Trey Sermon, who fell out of favor almost immediately and was waived after one season. Finally, last year, they used another third-round pick on Tyrion Davis-Price, who averaged 2.9 yards per carry as a rookie and was quickly usurped in the lineup by a trade for Christian McCaffrey.
Until the trade for McCaffrey, once Shanahan got his players on the field, he almost always ended up preferring a less notable option to the players he had prioritized in the draft or free agency. Matt Breida proved to be a home run hitter as an undrafted free agent addition in 2017. Later that year, the 49ers signed special teams journeyman Raheem Mostert; he averaged nearly 6.0 yards per carry with the team and scored four touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game win over the Packers. Undrafted free agent Jeff Wilson and sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell also had stretches as an effective lead back in San Francisco.
The other side of this is: Should teams be drafting backs more often in Round 1 before simply letting them leave in free agency? While I’ve heard this often as a plan, I don’t believe it’s an ideal way to approach the issue, and I laid out why in my article on Bijan Robinson. There are two factors at hand. One is the success rate of those first-round picks; whether you use the 2011 post-CBA rules or go back further, into the 1980s, they haven’t been good bets in the first round relative to other positions.
Another argument is opportunity cost. It’s easier to find useful running backs in the later rounds of the draft than it is to find players at any other position. When you factor in the outsize value in landing a wide receiver, edge rusher or cornerback in the draft relative to what they make on veteran deals, the value in taking a running back in the first round simply isn’t there.
Are star backs not getting as much time as they did in previous years?
It certainly feels that way. Take the case of Todd Gurley, who was Offensive Player of the Year at age 23, third in that race at age 24, cut after his age-25 season and out of football after his age-26 campaign. The backs on the free agent market now would have been considered as players in the prime of their careers 20 or 30 years ago. This idea is worth testing.
It’s tough to have an empirical example of what qualifies as a star back and his run as a starter, so I had to come up with my own definition. For every decade going back through the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, I identified the running backs who made the Pro Bowl at least once among their first three seasons. (I excluded backs who earned their nod because of their special teams work, such as Tarik Cohen.) Then, with the help of Pro Football Reference, I tracked how many seasons they lasted as a primary back in the league from Year 4 onward.
The numbers in the past might not be as large as you think. In the 1970s, the backs averaged 3.7 seasons as a starter after Year 3. In the 1980s, that dropped to 3.3, but the number spiked to 5.7 seasons in the 1990s and stayed high at 4.7 during the first decade of the 21st century. The average over that four-decade span was 4.2 seasons.
If we get to the window between 2010 and 2019 and focus on the backs whose careers as starters are definitely over, the average is scary: It’s 1.8 seasons. Players who seemed as if they could be standouts for years to come have quickly fallen off of the mountaintop. Gurley’s knee hindered his explosiveness. Devonta Freeman and Alfred Morris fell off after offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left for another city. David Johnson wasn’t able to stay healthy. Le’Veon Bell wasn’t the same after leaving Pittsburgh. DeMarco Murray wasn’t consistent. Melvin Gordon couldn’t protect the football.
Of course, that’s subject to some major selection bias, as it doesn’t include the backs whose careers are still going. In the case of Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffrey, they might have another half-decade to go as starters, which would dramatically improve those numbers. Josh Jacobs just had a career year. There’s a chance some of the backs from that decade — or Jonathan Taylor in the current one — could last for years to come.
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And yet, of those nine backs, it feels as if many are closer to the end than the beginning. It includes Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt, each of whom are free agents. Alvin Kamara hasn’t been the same since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season. James Conner hasn’t completed a single full season and is playing for a tanking Cardinals team. McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were healthy last season after missing most of the prior two seasons with injuries. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those backs broke through and lasted another seven or eight years as a starter, but unless a handful sustain their success, the 2010s are going to be an era in which promising young backs had shorter shelf lives than at any point since the AFL-NFL merger.
I’m not sure I can make a strong case that teams are giving up on those backs too quickly, either. When I looked at the 16 backs who are already finished as starters from the 2010s, it’s tough to find many who were playing well after leaving their initial teams. C.J. Anderson looked great in a late-season stint for the Rams in 2018 but got only 16 carries with the Lions afterward. Ryan Mathews had one solid season with the Eagles but retired after suffering a herniated disk in his neck. The only player from this group who left his first team and proceeded to make a Pro Bowl afterward was Murray, who made it with the Titans in 2016, dropped off the following season, then retired.
It’s also fair to point out that veterans at other positions don’t always return to form after they get off to hot starts. Ask the Rams about Allen Robinson. If we take wide receiver as an example, though, we’re not seeing the same sort of drop-off for players from that decade. Of the 30 wide receivers who made a Pro Bowl before Year 4, we’ve seen Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins excel after moving elsewhere.
On the whole, the NFL is getting younger. In terms of snap-weighted age — the average age for a player weighted by how many snaps each took during a given season — the league has been in a steady downswing toward youth. In 2007, the first year ESPN has snap data available, the average age of a player was 27.8 years old. That figure has declined in 13 of the 15 subsequent seasons, dropping all the way down to an even 27.0 last season.
But why are there four solid backs in the prime of their careers still left in free agency in mid-July?
Those four aren’t quite as impressive as their names might indicate. Kareem Hunt averaged 3.8 yards per carry last season, was a situational back in Cleveland and is a no-go for some organizations after he shoved and kicked a woman in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott’s efficiency as a runner and receiver has dropped each of the past three seasons, and he has played through injuries since 2021 in Dallas. Leonard Fournette arguably was the league’s least productive starting back in Tampa Bay a year ago. And while Dalvin Cook stayed healthy for 17 games for the first time as a pro, he posted below-average rush yards over expectation (RYOE) marks and has battled myriad injuries throughout his career with the Vikings.
Each of those backs still has something to offer in the right situation, but it would be foolish to project them as the players they were at their peak. More important is the market into which they’ve landed. Teams have had all offseason to shore up their running back rotation in free agency and with draft picks. No team has had a key running back suffer a significant injury in minicamp or during offseason workouts to open up a starting job.
I say it a lot because it’s important: NFL contracts are about leverage as opposed to talent. Players need talent to have leverage, but talent alone doesn’t explain anything. Right now, there are four backs who are qualified for steady NFL work available in free agency. How many teams actually have an opening? In terms of starting work, it might only be the Buccaneers, who are in a difficult cap situation and like 2022 third-rounder Rachaad White.
Dalvin Cook (left) and Ezekiel Elliott, running backs with seven Pro Bowls between them, are still looking for NFL jobs this summer. Photo by Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports
Other teams could consider a rotation player — the Dolphins, Rams, Bengals or Ravens make sense — but there’s no team in desperate need of a starter. Even if they were, they would be able to play these four backs against one another, which would keep their potential earnings down. If Cook or Elliott wanted to sign tomorrow for the minimum and just wanted to be in a training camp, they would have no trouble landing a job. Given the landscape and the paucity of openings, it’s tough for them to land meaningful money.
This is an issue that only seems to come up in conversation around running backs. I’ve never heard anyone argue that safeties or centers or gunners on special teams don’t make enough money, even though they train just as hard and are also putting their bodies on the line. Of course, those positions never held a position of outsize significance and competed for MVP awards, so we don’t think of them as misvalued or the product of an unwanted change in the same way that the running back landscape has changed over the last decade.
The reality is we have a soft spot for players who touch the football. It’s fine! Running backs are more fun than offensive linemen or safeties. I understand. The outsize importance of running backs in fantasy football is always going to make them a bigger piece of the puzzle than those players impact actual wins and losses. It’s not just a fan thing, though. Players routinely placed as many or more running backs on their top 100 list than they did offensive linemen, even given that there are five linemen and just one or two backs on the field at all times. The number of backs voted into the Hall of Fame over the past 25 years isn’t far off from the number of offensive linemen, either.
How can the market change so more running backs do get paid?
We’re not about to reverse to the universe in which backs are consistently competing for MVP awards and ranking as the highest-paid non-quarterbacks. I’m also not sure whether there’s a back who will push the top of the market past Christian McCaffrey’s $16 million annual average, either. Jonathan Taylor has a shot if he returns to his 2021 form, but after him, the next in line for that sort of massive contract might be Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, neither of whom has taken a single NFL snap. (For more on this, CBS Sports’ Joel Corry recently wrote at length about the stagnation of the top of the market.)
Calls for more fanciful solutions aren’t realistic. Running backs aren’t going to be able to form their own union. Players aren’t going to hold out en masse. A player such as Jacobs refusing to sign a long-term deal is more likely to hurt Jacobs than it is move the line forward for the backs to come. The economic reality for backs, at least at the pro level, isn’t going anywhere.
What about college, though? With backs still producing Heisman-caliber season at the amateur level, it’s fair to expect the best in the nation to accrue more NIL money during their college careers. One estimate suggested Robinson was worth $1.5 million in NIL money during his final season at Texas through deals with various companies. That’s more than most rookie backs at the NFL level made a year ago.
With the NFL pushing all but the truly elite college backs out of the first round of the draft, college players are going to be facing scenarios in which they can stay in school and earn more money than they would by moving to the pros. Everyone dreams of playing in the NFL, but players might not be as aggressive about declaring for the draft if they can stay on campus and get paid even more in the process.
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The CBA isn’t going to change soon — it runs until 2030 — but when the players sit down with the league during their next set of negotiations, I’d like to see them push for a path to playing one’s way out of a rookie deal. Owners aren’t going to want to pay players earlier than they have in years past, which will make this a tough sell, but it’s the only realistic way for running backs to make more money.
The easiest way to do this would be some kind of statistical threshold, where a running back immediately becomes eligible for an extension if he puts up some round number (let’s say 1,500 yards from scrimmage) in his first two seasons. Given that other positions don’t rack up statistics, though, applying a statistical benchmark for certain spots might not be realistic. One simpler way to do it would be to use year-end awards: If a player is voted to the Pro Bowl in either of his first two campaigns, he would become eligible for an extension after his second season as opposed to his third.
It’s a fanciful idea, but one that’s years away from even being considered, let alone actually coming into play. Given the extent of how the league has changed and the way the running back market has stagnated, though, it’s going to take something creative to return backs to their prior position of glory as one of the most celebrated positions in football.
