We’re halfway through the Champions League group stage, and several teams with lofty expectations are suddenly in dire need of results. Here, theScore picks five clubs with the biggest cause for concern. Panic level is rated out of five.
5. Atalanta
Andrew Powell / Liverpool FC / Getty
You never know what you’re going to get from Atalanta. They’re undoubtedly one of the most entertaining teams in Europe, but the club is also wildly unpredictable and capable of winning or losing by five-plus goals.
Tuesday’s 5-0 defeat to Liverpool leaves Atalanta with a 1-1-1 record in the Champions League, putting them third in Group D. They’re far too vulnerable at the back, and more worryingly, Atalanta has lacked the intensity to play the high-tempo football that initially drew such a big following.
But their persistence is greater than most teams. They managed to advance last season after losing their first three games during the group stage, including a 5-1 thrashing away to Manchester City.
That bounce-back ability makes Atalanta a weekly threat. Manager Gian Piero Gasperini always tells his players, “You either win, or you learn.” Consider Tuesday’s result another harsh lesson.
Panic level: ??
4. Real Madrid
Soccrates Images / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Real Madrid continue to look like a spent force in Europe. They held off Inter Milan for their first win of the group stage Tuesday, but Madrid allowed a 2-0 lead to evaporate, and only averted disaster when substitute Rodrygo scored in the 80th minute.
The solid defense that underpinned much of their recent success has evaporated, along with the swagger that made them such a daunting assignment. Madrid have conceded two-plus goals in each of their last five Champions League matches, and some of the team’s most reliable players, like Raphael Varane, have turned in average – and sometimes costly – performances.
Maybe Madrid can’t cope with the grueling schedule. The squad is aging, and there aren’t any new signings for Zinedine Zidane to parade. The burden of playing up to three times each week is taking its toll, along with the threat of COVID-19, which is still looming and a particular risk to teams like Madrid due to the club’s large contingent of players who represent their countries during the international break.
Madrid never gets time to rest, and injuries to Dani Carvajal and Eden Hazard only complicate matters. It’s up to Zidane to get his group back to basics, and Madrid can still make up for lost ground while one point back in Group B.
Panic level: ??
3. Paris Saint-Germain
Maja Hitij / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Thomas Tuchel’s job is in jeopardy. Just a couple of months removed from reaching the Champions League final, PSG are far from a team on the rise. Injuries are certainly slowing their progress, as Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, and Mauro Icardi were all absent from Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to RB Leipzig. But Tuchel’s decisions and approach left a lot to be desired.
He played Danilo Pereira, a midfielder by trade, in defense, while Marquinhos, a reliable center-back, moved into midfield. PSG struggled to create chances, recording just one shot on target against Leipzig. Rafinha, one of Tuchel’s few players with some creativity, only entered the match with six minutes remaining.
PSG continue to lay siege on their opponents in Ligue 1, but the club’s Qatari owners, including chairman Nasser Al-Khelaifi, demand success in Europe. It’s almost a decade into this project, and now PSG are wasting an opportunity to build on the momentum the club created. Another loss to Leipzig or Manchester United could spell disaster.
Panic level: ????
2. Inter Milan
PIERRE-PHILIPPE MARCOU / AFP / Getty
There are no excuses for Antonio Conte. After agreeing to stay on as Inter’s manager, the 51-year-old got the overhaul he wanted. Several veteran players, including Arturo Vidal, Aleksandar Kolarov, and Alexis Sanchez, jumped on board, giving Inter the steel, leadership, and depth that Conte thought was missing last season.
So far, the new additions aren’t working out. Inter are winless in the Champions League and in sixth place in Serie A after logging disappointing draws against the likes of Borussia Monchengladbach, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Parma.
Conte’s record in Europe is sure to come up again if Inter fail to progress to the round of 16. He’s never won a trophy in any cup competition since becoming a manager, and the Italian has been eliminated from the Champions League group stage twice, including once with a Juventus team that went undefeated in Serie A.
Conte has been reluctant to tweak on the fly, preferring to stick with his back three and reactive tactics, and that may cost him again.
Panic level: ????
1. Marseille
Quality Sport Images / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Without a win or a goal through three matches, Marseille sit dead last in Group C with a minus-7 goal differential. They need to win out to earn any chance of progressing to the knockout stage for the first time since the 2010-11 season, which is very unlikely.
But it can be done. Just ask Atalanta.
The squad at Andre Villas-Boas’ disposal is limited. He did a remarkable job last season, turning Marseille into a defensively sound unit despite the club investing little throughout the transfer window. But the fabric of the team is falling apart during the Champions League.
Marseille qualified because of their ability to eliminate errors and press high up the pitch. We’ve seen none of that so far in this competition. They’ve now lost 12 consecutive Champions League matches dating back to a decade ago, and Villas-Boas needs to get his players to buy in again to stop the rot.
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 78.5 | Spread: BAL -3 (47.5)
What to watch for: This matchup is all about the Ravens’ rushing attack and the Colts’ run defense. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 178.7 yards per game, while the Indianapolis D is the second stingiest in the league in that category at 79.9 yards per game. The Colts should have the advantage in this area on Sunday because they’re heading into the game healthy on the defense, whereas the Ravens will be without starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle). — Mike Wells
2 Related
Bold prediction:
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 76.2 | Spread: SEA -3 (55)
What to watch for: The Seahawks are allowing 358.7 passing yards per game; no team has ever allowed even 300 passing yards per game over the course of a full season. It could be a get-right game for the Bills’ passing attack, which has averaged just 210.5 yards over its past four games after averaging 316.3 in the first four weeks of the season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Seattle safety Jamal Adams will get two sacks. The All-Pro’s return from a four-game absence comes one week after the Seahawks executed one of the most blitz-heavy game plans in 11 seasons under Pete Carroll, something they had to do without the ability to get pressure with their front four. The addition of Carlos Dunlap to the Seahawks’ defensive line would ideally make them less reliant on blitzing, but expect that to still be a big part of their defensive approach now that Adams is back in the lineup. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the first pair in NFL history with 500 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns each in their team’s first seven games.
Injuries: Seahawks | Bills
What to know for fantasy: Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is pacing toward a season with 4,900 passing yards and nearly 600 rushing yards. There has only been one instance in which a quarterback threw for 4,500 yards and ran for 400 in NFL history: Daunte Culpepper in 2004. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Bills have failed to cover in four straight games. Read more.
Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 30, Bills 27 Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 35, Seahawks 31 FPI prediction: SEA, 54.8% (by an average of 1.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: How blitzing could be key to reviving Seahawks’ pass rush … Bills crank up run game, give needed boost to pass-heavy attack … Metcalf emerges with Lockett to give Seahawks two No. 1 wide receivers
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Mike Clay loves the matchup for Stefon Diggs and John Brown against the Seahawks secondary.
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 65.8 | Spread: KC -10.5 (52.5)
What to watch for: Can the Panthers find a strategy to keep the game close? If the Chiefs score points like they have recently — they’re averaging 39 over their past two games — Carolina won’t be able to keep up. Whether it’s to run the ball consistently to chew up the clock or find a defensive scheme to frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Panthers have to figure out a plan that works, something the Chiefs’ past two opponents, both also under .500, couldn’t do. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey will have 150 total yards from scrimmage after missing six games with a high ankle sprain. He returns against the league’s 29th-ranked run defense (142.8 yards per game), and his performance will help keep Mahomes off the field with sustained drives. — David Newton
Stat to know: Mahomes has 21 touchdown passes and one interception this season. That’s the highest touchdown pass count with no more than one pick through a player’s first eight games of a season in NFL history, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
Injuries: Panthers | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: Touching the ball is the best way to accrue fantasy points, making Curtis Samuel a free-agent bargain, given that he ranks eighth among wide receivers with 6.9 touches per game. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Carolina quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 20-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, including the playoffs. Read more.
Newton’s pick: Chiefs 35, Panthers 28 Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 33, Panthers 16 FPI prediction: KC, 84.1% (by an average of 13.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why McCaffrey will again be Panthers’ workhorse — immediately … Mahomes has some advice for “young Patrick” … Panthers will have to fight through as schedule turns tougher … Mahomes adds deep ball back into bag of tricks
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 48.2 | Spread: TEN -6.5 (47.5)
What to watch for: Who plays left cornerback for Tennessee? Adoree’ Jackson missed practice on Thursday and is yet to be added to the 53-man roster after spending most of the season on the injured reserve list. If Jackson is activated, it’s not likely that he’ll see a high volume of snaps, so someone will have to rotate in. The Titans released veteran Johnathan Joseph, leaving Tye Smith and Breon Borders as possibilities on the left side. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Nick Foles will be sacked a minimum of four times. Chicago could be without four Week 1 starters along the offensive line against the Titans — and the best-case scenario still leaves it down two of them. Foles has been under tremendous pressure since he took over for Mitchell Trubisky in Week 3, as the Bears have surrendered 20 sacks (tied for ninth most in the NFL) and rank 21st in pass block win rate, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. Foles is in for a long afternoon. — Jeff Dickerson
Stat to know: Tennessee is last in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate allowed at 61.9%. The team was eighth last season at 36.3%. But luckily for the Titans, the Bears’ offense ranks 31st in third-down conversion rate at 34.9%, meaning third down could be interesting on Sunday.
Injuries: Bears | Titans
What to know for fantasy: Titans running back Derrick Henry has five straight games with at least 15 fantasy points but three or fewer receptions. That’s the longest streak of its kind since one by Arian Foster in 2012, and it might continue against a Bears defense that is worse against the run than you might think (below league average in both running back rushing yards and yards per carry). See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: When Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 15-2, including 6-1 this season. Read more.
Dickerson’s pick: Titans 21, Bears 13 Davenport’s pick: Titans 21, Bears 17 FPI prediction: TEN, 62.0% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bad to worse: Bears O-line beset by injury … Davis proving his worth to Titans ahead of critical offseason … Bears can’t pull out another miracle win … Titans release DB Joseph after getting King
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 40.8 | Spread: MIN -4 (52.5)
What to watch for: Who’s going to suit up at quarterback for the Lions after Matthew Stafford was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday? While coach Matt Patricia would not speculate about the QB’s status, it’s possible Stafford plays in Week 9 if he continues to test negative every day this week. If not, it’ll be Chase Daniel or David Blough under center. Since Stafford was drafted by Detroit in 2009, the Lions are 5-22 (.185) when he doesn’t start, including 0-8 last season. — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins continues his dominance over Patricia’s Lions with a 275-yard, three-touchdown day in which he completes 75% of his passes. Last year, Cousins threw for 580 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions against Detroit, and he has yet to have a game under 70% completions against the Lions since Patricia took over in 2018. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: This will be running back Adrian Peterson’s third career game against Minnesota, a team he spent 10 seasons with earlier in his career. Peterson’s teams are 0-2 against his former club.
Injuries: Lions | Vikings
What to know for fantasy: Lions wideout Kenny Golladay will not be active this week, so it’s worth noting that Marvin Jones Jr. averages 22.2 points per game during his Lions career when seeing at least 10 targets. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Minnesota has covered each of the past five meetings between these teams. Read more.
Rothstein’s pick: Vikings 31, Lions 23 Cronin’s pick: Vikings 28, Lions 20 FPI prediction: MIN, 66.5% (by an average of 5.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: With Golladay out, Hockenson could emerge as go-to guy … Key to Vikings’ success: Keep ball out of Cousins’ hands? … What is happening to Lions run game? … Stafford on COVID list again
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 39.4 | Spread: ATL -4 (50)
What to watch for: The Falcons’ secondary is improving, thanks in part to a pass rush that has generated 20 of its 47 QB hits and six of its 13 sacks over the past three games. And Broncos QB Drew Lock is completing an NFL-worst 58% of his passes and has the fifth-highest off-target percentage in the league, per ESPN Stats & Information. — Mike DiRocco
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1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 26.1 | Spread: WSH -1 (42.5)
What to watch for: How will Washington handle Giants QB Daniel Jones? Jones is 3-0 against Washington and 1-16 against everyone else. He has thrown seven touchdowns with three picks and owns a 75.0 total QBR in those three games — his best showing versus any NFC East team. Washington has sacked Jones just twice, and in Week 6, he threw for only 112 yards but ran for 74. — John Keim
Bold prediction: Giants RB Wayne Gallman will run for over 100 yards, making him New York’s first 100-yard rusher this season. No team is better at defending the pass than Washington. It is allowing just 185.9 yards per game. So how do you attack it? Run the ball! The Giants have rushed more effectively in recent weeks. That will continue on Sunday against Washington, with New York’s best individual effort this season. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Washington is averaging 292.7 yards of offense per game this season, the third fewest in the NFL (Jets at 259.0, Giants at 291.8). And the team also has the second-worst QBR this season at 41.0.
Injuries: Giants | Washington
What to know for fantasy: New York wide receiver Sterling Shepard has gone over 15 fantasy points in both of his games back from injury, and he averaged 18.3 against Washington a season ago. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Giants have covered seven straight and 16 out of 20 on the road since 2018. Read more.
Raanan’s pick: Giants 22, Washington 17 Keim’s pick: Washington 20, Giants 19 FPI prediction: WSH, 65.4% (by an average of 5.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Frustrated Tate absent from Giants’ practice on Wednesday … Washington coach Rivera won’t speculate on Kerrigan trade talk … Giants’ Ryan says trainer’s advice helped save wife’s life
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Field Yates and Mike Clay agree that Evan Engram has gotten “back on track” thanks to the sheer volume of targets.
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 10.5 | Spread: HOU -7 (50.5)
What to watch for: Don’t be surprised to see the Texans blitz more than they already do, even with outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus out. The Texans blitz an average of 12 times per game, per ESPN Stats and Information. On Sunday, they’ll be facing rookie quarterback Jake Luton, a sixth-round pick who hasn’t taken a game snap since Nov. 23, 2019, when Oregon State played Washington State. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: Houston RB David Johnson will run for more than 100 yards for the first time this season. When these two teams played in Week 5, Johnson ran for 96 yards on 17 carries. And the Jaguars rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Luton had 28 passing TDs and three interceptions last season at Oregon State. That 9.3 ratio ranked fifth in the FBS behind only Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Dustin Crum.
Injuries: Texans | Jaguars
What to know for fantasy: Houston wideout Brandin Cooks is very quietly one of just three wide receivers with at least seven catches in each of his past three games. On a per-game basis, he is WR5 over that stretch (21.6 fantasy points per game). See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: These two teams are a combined 3-12 ATS this season. Read more.
Barshop’s pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 17 DiRocco’s pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 13 FPI prediction: HOU, 68.8% (by an average of 6.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Watt ‘not looking to rebuild’ as Texans stumble … Jaguars to start rookie QB Luton vs. Texans … Texans close facility after Martin tests positive for coronavirus … What kind of ‘crazy’ stuff should Marrone try? Here are some ideas … Texans sign quarterback McCown, 41, to active roster
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 36.9 | Spread: LAC -1 (51.5)
What to watch for: This is always a battle, but the matchup brings a little extra this year: rookie QB Justin Herbert vs. seven-year vet Derek Carr, who has been putting up impressive numbers. Both offensive lines are in flux, but each unit should be back at full strength or close to it on Sunday. But the Chargers will miss defensive end Joey Bosa, which should make Carr feel a little more comfortable in the pocket. — Shelley Smith
Bold prediction: The patchwork Raiders offensive line will throw a shutout against the Chargers’ hobbled pass rush, a week after shutting out an obviously hobbled Myles Garrett in frigid Cleveland. And Carr, able to extend plays, will rush for at least one first down. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Raiders are 3-1 on the road this season after going a combined 3-13 on the road in the previous two seasons. And they will seek to win three straight road games for just the third time in the past 15 seasons.
Injuries: Raiders | Chargers
What to know for fantasy: Herbert has four straight games with at least 21 fantasy points, tying Deshaun Watson for the longest such streak by a rookie quarterback among active players. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Six of seven Raiders games have gone over the total this season. Read more.
Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders 23, Chargers 21 Smith’s pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 17 FPI prediction: LV, 53.9% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders entering potentially season-defining stretch vs. AFC West foes … Will Chargers wide receiver Williams put it all together after up-and-down start? … When will the Raiders’ massive, and expensive, O-line get back together? … Lynn on Chargers blowing another double-digit lead: Got to figure this out
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 54.9 | Spread: ARI -4.5 (49)
What to watch for: Despite the Cardinals playing well as of late, they’ll be down Byron Murphy Jr., and maybe Dre Kirkpatrick, at cornerback. If Kirkpatrick is out too, watch for Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa to have a big outing, because whomever Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson isn’t guarding will be picked on all day. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will hold Cardinals wideout DeAndre Hopkins to under 50 receiving yards. In games during which both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are healthy, the Dolphins are allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt and 13.8 points per game. They have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, and a big reason is their big-money cornerbacks. This is a marquee prove-it game for the Dolphins’ defense, though, and neutralizing Hopkins — who is currently averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game — would be a big accomplishment. — Cameron Wolfe
Stat to know: Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray finished 1-2 in the 2018 Heisman Trophy voting. This will be only the fifth time that quarterbacks who finished 1-2 in the Heisman in the same year have started against each other in the NFL. (Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are the most recent pair to meet, earlier this season.)
Injuries: Dolphins | Cardinals
What to know for fantasy: Hopkins has been a top-10 wide receiver in five of seven games this season, and he faces a Dolphins defense that ranks 21st this season against fantasy wide receivers. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Miami has covered games by 11.5 points per contest this season, which is on pace to be the best mark in the Super Bowl era. (The current record is 11.1, by the Oakland Raiders in 1967.) Read more.
Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 23, Cardinals 20 Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 31, Dolphins 24 FPI prediction: ARI, 69.7% (by an average of 7.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: The Tagovailoa tour: Four days, three states, two wins and one unforgettable weekend … Cardinals’ Baker is ‘chill’ until ‘he flips that savage switch’ … Flores says Dolphins are not auditioning Tua … Kingsbury confirms 2 Cardinals tested positive for coronavirus
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 40.5 | Spread: PIT -14 (42)
What to watch for: The Cowboys have had more than 25,000 fans in each of their past three games at AT&T Stadium, and a similar crowd is expected Sunday. How many of them will be Steelers fans? The Cowboys will be starting their fourth different quarterback against a ferocious pass rush. And Pittsburgh has a balanced offense that has scored at least 26 points in each game. When the Steelers visited in 2012, AT&T Stadium was overrun by Terrible Towels among the crowd of 95,595. The crowd will be smaller on Sunday, but the percentage of Steelers fans could be higher. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott will have his first 100-yard game. The Steelers struggled to stop the Ravens on the ground last week, giving up 265 yards — including 113 to rookie J.K. Dobbins. And they will likely be without defensive lineman Tyson Alualu, linebacker Devin Bush and defensive back Mike Hilton in their run defense. Still, Pittsburgh has had its fair share of tough tests on the ground, and it’s not getting any easier this week, as the Cowboys will likely lean on their rush attack with the quarterback situation in flux. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers are forcing 1.9 turnovers per game, tied for the second most in the NFL behind the Seahawks (2.0). The Cowboys, meanwhile, are committing a league-high 2.3 turnovers per game.
Injuries: Steelers | Cowboys
What to know for fantasy: Elliott is averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game in the three weeks following the Dak Prescott injury (RB25). He was RB4 in the five weeks prior, averaging 22.3 points in the process. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Dallas has failed to cover games by an average of 10.1 points per contest this season. That’s on pace to be the second-worst mark in the Super Bowl era. (The Baltimore Colts were at minus-10.7 in 1981.) Read more.
Pryor’s pick: Steelers 35, Cowboys 20 Archer’s pick: Steelers 37, Cowboys 17 FPI prediction: PIT, 78.0% (by an average of 10.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Return of ‘Backyard’ Roethlisberger signals more good things ahead for Steelers … Cowboys to start Gilbert or Rush at QB against Steelers … Steelers changing their ways with another in-season trade … Once Cowboys’ strength, this position group has been hit hard … Dalton news is proof it can get worse for Cowboys
What to watch for: Wide receiver Antonio Brown will make his debut with the Buccaneers, who look to avenge a Week 1 loss at New Orleans and maintain hold of the NFC South. Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said they’re “light-years” from where they were in Week 1 as an offense, and Todd Bowles’ defense has become one of the league’s best. But that D has shown some vulnerability over the past two weeks against the Raiders and Giants, having to overcome slow starts and rely on second-half interceptions to be the difference-makers. It’ll need a much faster start against Drew Brees. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will burn the Saints with a 50-yard TD pass. OK, this one actually isn’t so bold, since the Saints have allowed an astounding seven passes of 48-plus yards over their past five games. New Orleans’ secondary has made gradual improvements, but who better to find and expose a breakdown in coverage than Brady — especially now that he has so many diverse playmakers to work with in Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Brown and possibly Chris Godwin (if he is healthy)? — Mike Triplett
Stat to know: Saints running back Alvin Kamara has six straight games with 100 scrimmage yards, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak by a Saints player since Deuce McAllister’s team-record nine-game streak in 2003. Kamara’s 27 career games of 100 scrimmage yards are tied with Joe Horn for third in franchise history.
Injuries: Saints | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: In his past three matchups with the Saints, Evans has just five catches on his 119 routes run. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: All seven New Orleans games have gone over the total this season. Read more.
Triplett’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 23 Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 29, Saints 26 FPI prediction: TB, 64.9% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Scars of the NFL’s QB guard: How Brees, Brady and others have worked through injuries … Brown says he’s grateful to be back in football … Saints are 5-2 because Kamara is making NFL history … What can the Buccaneers expect from receiver Brown?
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Mike Clay isn’t benching Michael Thomas, but expresses concern about his matchup against Bucs CB Carlton Davis.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN Matchup rating: 22.5 | Spread: NE -7.5 (42.5)
What to watch for: The Patriots have lost four straight. The Jets have lost eight straight. Each team has gone three straight without a touchdown pass. Both quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, are struggling. Once upon a time — say, 10 years ago — this was a fun rivalry. Then it became one-sided. Now it looks no-sided. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Rookie Patriots linebacker Josh Uche, who played 13 snaps in his debut, will take on a larger role and get involved in creating a turnover that helps the Patriots to a victory. Uche, a second-round pick from Michigan, is the type of fast, physical linebacker the Patriots desperately need to become a centerpiece of their defense. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Over his past three games, Newton has zero touchdowns, five interceptions, a 21% off-target percentage and a 25.3 Total QBR. Part of the problem might be his wideouts. That group has one receiving TD this season (fewest in the NFL), and the Pats have thrown eight picks when targeting a wide receiver (one fewer than the most in the NFL).
Injuries: Patriots | Jets
What to know for fantasy: Is New England running back Damien Harris getting enough attention? His per-game average would have him trending toward an 1,100-yard season, and he finally got into the end zone last week in Buffalo. His role is game-script dependent, but even the struggling Patriots are 7.5-point road favorites over the Jets. See Week 9 rankings.
Betting nugget: Bill Belichick is 6-1 ATS in his career in New England when facing a team 0-3 or worse outright. Read more.
Reiss’ pick: Patriots 26, Jets 17 Cimini’s pick: Patriots 20, Jets 10 FPI prediction: NE, 72.6% (by an average of 8.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins trade WR Ford to Patriots … Jets optimistic Darnold will play Monday night despite shoulder injury … After decades of dominance, Patriots are a long shot to win AFC East … Jets GM Douglas shoulders blame while backing Darnold, Gase … Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?
Pep Guardiola has entered uncharted territory, already spending longer in east Manchester than he did in the technical areas of Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Last season, his side surrendered its two-year grip on the Premier League trophy to a dominant Liverpool. The spine that predated Guardiola’s reign is distorting and disintegrating: David Silva left one year after Vincent Kompany’s departure, and Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho could follow in June.
The squad that he fine-tuned needed an upgrade after August’s Champions League elimination to Lyon. The conservative setup in that hugely disappointing defeat – to France’s seventh-best club, at the time – was strangely familiar.
Raheem Sterling missing an open goal from five yards was 2020’s version of Lionel Messi reading Jerome Boateng a bedtime story before tucking him in for the night. Guardiola was his own worst enemy against Lyon, just as he was in Bayern Munich’s infamous 3-0 semifinal first-leg defeat to Barcelona in 2015; Sterling’s gaffe and Boateng’s tumble were tragicomic byproducts of a manager sapping his teams’ trademark vim and verve at a crucial moment.
“The gaps were little, but you have to close these gaps. We have to solve it,” Guardiola said in October after claiming responsibility for the Lyon defeat.
“It’s the past. Now is a new opportunity, and we are going to start at zero again.”
Alex Livesey – Danehouse / Getty Images Sport / Getty
The Lyon loss ended a Guardiola cycle at City. But, unlike his spells in Spain and Germany, the 49-year-old appears to be sticking around for another.
The innovator
His early days at City presented, until this season, the toughest assignment of his managerial career.
At Barcelona, the departures of Ronaldinho and Deco offered the biggest hint of what would follow, as Guardiola increased the club’s reliance on the gifted academy products rising from La Masia. Bayern didn’t require a revolution either, so upon his arrival, he merely insisted the board sign Thiago Alcantara to complement the riches he inherited: the waspish wing play of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, the versatility and defensive protection of Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger, and the tactical genius of Thomas Muller.
The City project was more daunting. Despite the previous summer’s acquisitions of Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne, sterility had set in during Manuel Pellegrini’s time in charge. The full-backs were rusty and the hapless Eliaquim Mangala was a regular at center-back. Yaya Toure idled his way through matches. Kelechi Iheanacho and Wilfried Bony, the two strikers vying for minutes behind Sergio Aguero, scored 12 league goals between them in the 2015-16 term.
Pellegrini’s side finished a considerable 15 points adrift of title-winning Leicester City and only squeezed into the top four on goal difference. City had collected two Premier League titles in six seasons; hoisting silverware was yet to become a habit. Guardiola had work to do if he was to preserve his reputation as a cup hoarder.
Yes, he spent money, and he wasted plenty of it on defenders. But it was the nature of the success – the tactical innovations and downright dominance – that set City apart. The players recalibrated the English game when they fully grasped Guardiola’s methods in Years 2 and 3.
AFP Contributor / AFP / Getty
“He’s been an innovator. When I watch kids’ football now, when they can get on pitches that aren’t flooded or frozen, I see them playing out from the back,” said England manager Gareth Southgate in 2018.
Southgate would know. Burnley’s Nick Pope is probably the best shot-stopper available to England’s national team, but error-prone Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford keeps hold of the No. 1 jersey due to his footwork and distribution. The sight of a full-back wandering into a central position isn’t that kooky anymore. Teams in the fourth tier and below are splitting their center-backs and dropping in a central midfielder to instigate passing moves from the base of the lineup. Each development is influenced by what Guardiola brought to City following his 2016 unveiling.
‘Different year, same stuff’
A Guardiola regime comes at a cost. The mental wear on the Barcelona and Bayern squads was obvious when Guardiola neared the end of those respective spells, and four years of him vibrating on the Etihad Stadium touchline appeared to reach its inevitable, messy conclusion in August. The exhaustive tactical tutoring and team talks had seemingly taken their toll.
“Different year, same stuff,” De Bruyne shrugged after the Lyon match. The Belgian was recalling his previous Champions League disappointments with the club, against Real Madrid (under Pellegrini), AS Monaco, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur.
Sometimes, accusing Guardiola of overthinking tactics is a ready-meal offering by journalists without the time or inclination to cook up anything better. However, while Guardiola’s unrestrained approach against Monaco was naive, over-scrutinizing rivals to the extent that it blunts his own side’s strengths was a fair hypothesis for both the Liverpool and Spurs exits. He was also questioned for the tactics that accompanied Barcelona’s elimination in 2012 and Bayern Munich’s inability to reach a final in each of his three seasons in Bavaria, which included the Boateng game.
Guardiola has furnished an unwanted reputation at City.
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“In knockout games, Pep pays a lot of attention to the opponents and their strengths,” Muller, who collected seven winners’ medals during Guardiola’s Bayern spell, explained to The Athletic in February. “He’s always a little torn between paying extreme attention and respect to the strengths of the opposition – more so than against smaller teams – and sticking to his convictions and to a system he believes in, to go, ‘We will play with that risk because that’s who we are.’
“Sometimes, it’s not 100 percent clear what we’re doing.”
City were drained when they trudged off the pitch in Lisbon. On home soil, a League Cup final win over Aston Villa would never compensate for the 18-point gap below Liverpool in the Premier League table.
Renewal
Nowadays, most elite clubs hire managers with hopes of sparking success through a three-year period before the squad, training-ground routines, and on-pitch setup need refreshing with new leadership. Guardiola is in his fifth season at City and repeatedly states he wants to remain. “It is a place I love to be, but I have to deserve it,” he declared in September.
Something is keeping Guardiola at City. It might be a desire to prove people wrong. It certainly helps Guardiola to have ex-Barcelona teammate Txiki Begiristain and Ferran Soriano, a former executive at the Catalonian club, in the boardroom to continually back his plans, but there is evidence of renewal to counter any suggestion that Guardiola is losing his hunger for the job or getting too comfortable.
The recent disjointed performances bear resemblances of Guardiola’s first season, with players working out each other and the tactics all over again. The repeated injury absences in the squad have forced the Spaniard’s hand, of course, but he does seem to be steering his side into a new phase.
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Bernardo Silva is deployed in wide areas less frequently since David Silva ended his decade in sky blue, with the former’s all-action performance against Arsenal in mid-October perhaps a sign of what’s to come. Phil Foden’s influence on the team is increasing, and he’s developing a promising understanding with summer arrival Ferran Torres. After plenty of trial and even more error, the heir to Kompany’s defensive mantle may be Ruben Dias.
And, most pleasingly for the club’s supporters, academy kids are earning first-team minutes with greater regularity – nearly six years after City moved into the £200-million Etihad Campus. Six of City’s 12 substitutes for the Champions League group-stage wins over FC Porto and Marseille were players who’ve passed through the club’s youth ranks.
Guardiola could’ve taken the easy way out. He wouldn’t need to look far for new employers, and Juventus had a vacancy in the summer, but he’s trying to revise one of his own creations for the first time in his career.
It could rewrite his managerial legacy. Re-enlivening a team that appeared to fade under his watch would hush criticism that players grow fatigued of his demanding nature, and guiding City to Champions League success would turn the volume down on the overthinking jibes.
Failure, on the other hand, would mean the critics have won.
