How will Saints' Michael Thomas, Bucs' Antonio Brown shape the NFC South race?
The NFC South is just getting warmed up.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) and New Orleans Saints (5-2) were already embroiled in one of the NFL’s most compelling division battles heading into Sunday night’s crucial showdown in Tampa (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Now they’re about to add two of the greatest receivers of the past decade for the second half of the season: Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas.
Brown will make his debut with the Bucs, appearing in his first game in 14 months. Thomas, meanwhile, appears likely to play for the first time since he suffered a high ankle sprain at the end of New Orleans’ Week 1 victory over the Buccaneers.
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Thomas is officially listed as questionable. But he practiced all week on a limited basis, and a source told ESPN’s Dianna Russini that he is expected to play.
Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians said Brown could play somewhere between 10 and 35 snaps on Sunday. Saints coach Sean Payton — who respected Brown’s talent enough to bring him in for a tryout in New Orleans late last season — said that could be enough for the four-time first-team All-Pro to make an impact.
“You know, one big play at the wrong time could [be a game-changer]. And it doesn’t require 11 catches,” Payton said. “He’s explosive and smart. He understands football.
“The challenge this week is not having any idea about, ‘Does he come out and play the Z or the X? How much?’ So you have to be prepared for where they might put him in their scheme.”
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Matthew Berry and Field Yates discuss Antonio Brown’s fantasy relevance and why Tom Brady is the key to his success in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers should have a better idea of what to expect if New Orleans gets its full complement of offensive playmakers back. (Receiver Emmanuel Sanders was also activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list this week after missing the past two games.) But that won’t make the Saints any easier to defend.
The Saints have started to find a rhythm on offense during their recent four-game win streak, led by Alvin Kamara’s historic start as a runner and receiver.
“Without even giving him the ball, you have to account for Mike Thomas,” Kamara said. “Defense is an anticipating game. They’ve gotta anticipate what’s gonna happen when Mike Thomas is on the field. … And obviously, when you put the ball in his hands and you get him moving around and running how he’s used to running and doing the things he’s used to doing, it’s not many players, not many defenses that can stop him.”
Here’s a look at how much of an impact Brown and Thomas could have down the stretch — and what else the Buccaneers and Saints have to do to win the South.
Brown demands defenses’ attention
Unlike Thomas, Brown won’t be the focal point of the Bucs’ passing game. But his presence takes some of the attention off of players who have been doing the heavy lifting, such as Mike Evans, who said he is just now starting to feel close to 100 percent after suffering an ankle injury in Week 4. The injury impacted Evans’ ability to cut, but he has also seen a lot more double coverage when Chris Godwin hasn’t been out on the field, which has significantly impacted his production. Godwin’s status for Sunday isn’t certain, and much of that will depend on soreness, but Arians said Friday after Godwin caught passes for the first time since his surgery Oct. 27, “I would anticipate him probably playing.”
What Brown brings to the Bucs’ offense that can help the team make not only a playoff push but also a Super Bowl push is that he can do it all as a route runner. He’s just as dangerous on the go routes and deep routes used with Targets on Post Routes Since 2017
Player | Targets | NFL Rank |
---|---|---|
Mike Evans | 52 | 1st |
Chris Godwin | 37 | T-2nd |
Antonio Brown | 21 | T-13th |
Rob Gronkowski | 21 | T-13th |
The Bucs will create some packages for Brown against the Saints, but Arians is keeping it close to the vest. In Brown and Brady’s one and only game together last season — a 43-0 win over the Dolphins in Week 2 — Brown lined up in the slot on 12 snaps and outside on 12 others.
Although he didn’t run any for the Patriots, you can’t overlook Brown’s ability on post routes, which has become a defining characteristic of Brady’s move to Arians’ offense. Brown has caught 67% of his post routes since 2017. Brady has already thrown as many post route attempts this season (14) as he did all of last season, with only Top 3 in YAC on Post Routes Since 2017
Player | YAC |
---|---|
Chris Godwin | 175 |
Antonio Brown | 147 |
Mike Evans | 119 |
Brown doesn’t need to play a ton of snaps to do some damage. In his one game with the Patriots, Brown was targeted eight times on 14 routes run (57.1%), and he caught four passes for 56 receiving yards and a touchdown. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, there have been more than 2,300 instances of a WR running 10-plus routes in a game since the start of last season; only one was targeted more frequently than Brown was in that game.