Draft-Day Manifesto: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Drafters

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As I sat down to think about the 2020 version of the Draft-Day Manifesto, the 22nd edition of the column, I started to think about what should be in it and, of course, what shouldn’t. If you’ve read me for any amount of time, you know I am a creature of habit and the Manifesto is always a perennial favorite of my readers.

But it’s also long. Like really long. I mean, it ain’t the Draft-Day Pamphlet, you know? And we live in a TikTok world where attention spans are shorter than ever. Plus, while the core of it changes with each new season, a different player pool and league trends, much of it is similar year after year, like me wishing Frank Gore well in what I am sure will be his final season playing.

So as I contemplated what to write, my mind turned to Stephen Covey, who passed away in 2012 at age 79. His Wikipedia describes him as an educator, author, businessperson and keynote speaker. It mentions he was married, had nine(!) kids and 52 grandchildren.

But calling him an author is a little like calling Taylor Swift a singer. Because Covey didn’t just write books. He wrote a monster.

His 1989 book, “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People,” has sold more than 30 million copies, become the first nonfiction audiobook in U.S. publishing history to sell more than 1 million copies and spawned tons of offshoots, including “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Teens,” “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Families,” and “The 7 Habits of a Highly Effective Frank Gore.” I’m pretty sure that last one doesn’t exist, but it should. Frank Gore forever.

I’ve long been obsessed with the premise of the book, and I’ve written about it before. Being able to distill achieving success into seven easy-to-grasp habits. And then I wondered … could I do that for fantasy football? At least for draft strategy? Could I distill the Draft-Day Manifesto into seven easy-to-grasp concepts that would give readers a fundamental, step-by-step blueprint on how to approach their draft prep?

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I decided I’m sure as hell gonna try.

So, welcome, friends, old and new, to the 22nd edition of the heart-stopping, knowledge-dropping, ADP-rocking, booty-shaking, strategy-making, earth-quaking, sleeper-taking, Springsteen-stealing, justifying, death-defying, legendary DRAFT-DAY MANIFESTO.

My very first fantasy league was in 1984, and I have drafted hundreds of times in many leagues ever since. And as a result I can confirm what my very first commissioner, beloved former commissioner for life, Don Smith, would always say to me on draft day: “It’s only the best day of the year.”

It really is. It’s also the most important day of the year. And it’s important you do well on it.

So, with that in mind, please pay attention.

These are The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Drafters.

Habit 1: They spend a ton of time preparing

It seems obvious, but much like everything else in life, what you put into it is what you get out of it. So you need to prep. But before you prep, you need to understand — to a T — what you are prepping for.

Here’s how you do that:

A. Study the rules and, more importantly, figure out the best ways to exploit those rules. I know it seems obvious, but you’d be amazed at how many drafts I’ve been in where halfway through someone says, “Wait, do we start two wide receivers or three?”

B. Start your research by watching, reading and listening. Everyone has different preferences and amount of time, so whether it’s TV, digital video shows, podcasts, columns or social media, start digging in. Immediately. You need to have an opinion on every player and more importantly, on that player (and that player’s position) relative to every other player. More on this later.

Not surprisingly, QB is once again very deep. Again, the approach is different for superflex leagues, where I ideally get at least one top-tier QB, but for ESPN standard leagues, where you start just one QB, you can wait at the position. Make no mistake, having Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on your team is not going to be the reason you lose. They are awesome, and you will enjoy watching them every week. But there’s some simple math to it: There are 32 starting QBs in the NFL, and in a 10-team standard ESPN league, only 10 must be selected. L-Jax, of course, was an outlier last season, so let’s put him aside for one second.

Last season, through Week 16 on a points-per-game (PPG) basis, the difference between QB2 (Deshaun Watson) and QB11 (Kyler Murray) was 3.2 points per game. Now, that’s not nothing. But compare it to the RBs, where once again Christian McCaffrey was an extreme outlier and we’ll put him aside as well.

By the way, if you’re playing PPR, whenever you’re drafting RBs, try to get one who catches passes. I know that sounds obvious, but you might not realize how significant it is. Last season, eight of the top 10 RBs in terms of points per game averaged at least three receptions per game. Nine of the top 10 RBs saw at least 30% of their fantasy points come from receiving, while 18 of the top 20 RBs averaged at least two receptions per game.

Wide receiver

We’ve already talked about the depth at wide receiver somewhat, but just to give some context to that, in 2019 there were 19 wide receivers who averaged at least 15.0 PPG, 34 WRs who averaged at least 12.5 PPG and an impressive 55 WRs who averaged at least 10.0 PPG. And that’s before one of the deepest wide receiver rookie classes ever came into the league.

Just anecdotally, as of this writing, below are the WRs being drafted from 30th to 34th at the position — meaning these would be people’s fourth wide receivers in a 10-team league:

So, once more for the kids in the back. When building your team, when making start/sit or trade decisions, when doing anything in fantasy football, just think to yourself: At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.

Always ask yourself … what’s most likely to happen?

Habit 4: They recognize this fantasy football season will be vastly different from any other by a significant margin

There’s very little I know about COVID-19, and whatever I do know is likely to be out-of-date by the time this gets published. But here’s one thing I feel good about: Playing a season in a world where this virus exists is going to be very different from any season we have ever experienced.

With so much unknown and unknowable, let’s start by eliminating the unknown things we can get rid of. For me, that means when evaluating players, I am going to focus on players who are in as similar a situation as possible to the one they were in last season. There are going to be no preseason games this year and, at most, 14 practices with pads. You can Zoom ’til your phone dies, but that is still not a lot of time for players to get familiar with their new coaches, teammates and playbook.

Then, on draft day in the actual league, Ekeler goes before it gets to me. As do basically all the other RBs I would consider here. But somehow Davante Adams is still there. Now, I had always planned to wait on WR, but come on. It’s Davante Adams, a guy who could legit get 180 targets this season and, to me, is the clear-cut WR2 this season. So I took Adams.

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” No, Mike Tyson wasn’t talking about fantasy football, but the sentiment here is accurate. The successful fantasy managers are the ones who are prepared to react. No two drafts fall the same way, and with the draft timer ticking toward zero, you need to keep your composure and not panic when the three guys you wanted go the three picks before your turn.

Just realize that player value changes all the time, with every practice, tweet, coach comment and more. And players’ values change within a draft as well, as everyone approaches the draft differently and suddenly certain positions are more scarce or more abundant than they were two rounds ago. Once you draft Dalvin Cook, for example, Alexander Mattison has a much greater value to you than he does to other players in your league.

And here’s the other thing: Once the season starts, it’s mostly out the window anyway. I mean, look at the top 10 WRs in ADP last season. Wide receiver is traditionally one of the most consistent positions.

1. DeAndre Hopkins
2. Michael Thomas
3. Davante Adams
4. Julio Jones
5. Tyreek Hill
6. Odell Beckham Jr.
7. JuJu Smith-Schuster
8. Antonio Brown
9. Mike Evans
10. Keenan Allen

Here were the top 10 WRs in total points for the 2019 season (PPR scoring):

1. Michael Thomas
2. Chris Godwin
3. Julio Jones
4. “My little” Cooper Kupp
5. DeAndre Hopkins
6. Keenan Allen
7. Julian Edelman
8. Allen Robinson II
9. Kenny Golladay
10. Amari Cooper

By the way, 11th and 12th were DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry, two other guys who weren’t drafted anywhere near the top 10 (and Parker was a free-agent pickup in most leagues).

So Thomas, Julio, Hopkins and Allen returned top-10 value among the first 10 WRs off the board. Sure, when healthy, Adams, Hill and Evans did as well, but that’s sort of the point. Injuries are part of the game. And this is just about the top 10, where the high draft picks represent players most fantasy managers feel are “safest.” It gets worse the further you go down the list, at every position.

So I’m a big believer, especially as you get further into the draft, that you should just get your guys. Don’t sweat rankings or what some people think are good values (or bad). None of that matters, and it will all change. I want you to win, I really do. But not as bad as you do. No one will know your league, your rules, your tendencies better than you.

Above all else, trust yourself.

Habit 7: They understand that the draft is just the first step to success

You don’t have to win the league during your draft. In fact, it’s very unlikely that you will. If your fantasy football season is a house — and at this point in the article why wouldn’t it be? — the draft is merely the foundation. You’re just trying to acquire the building blocks of your team. If there’s a run on quarterbacks, instead of forcing it and taking a lower-tier guy, grab another running back. Give yourself some surplus so you have something to trade. Trust me, another lower-tier QB will still be there next round.

And this goes to what I was talking about in terms of not sweating rankings or ADP too much and going for upside. Because you’re likely dropping some of these guys on the way to glory anyway.

Look at the 2019 playoffs in ESPN leagues. Four of the six “players” most rostered by ESPN playoff teams last season were not drafted, on average, in the first nine rounds:

• Lamar Jackson: 124.4 ADP, on a playoff team in 68.8% of leagues
• Patriots D/ST: 141.7 ADP, on a playoff team in 64.7% of leagues
• Austin Ekeler: 91.6 ADP, on a playoff team in 63.9% of leagues
• Darren Waller: Undrafted, on a playoff team in 63.4% of leagues

This is not some one-year anomaly, either. In 2018, the seven most popular “players” on playoff rosters were picked in the 12th round or later, with three of them not getting drafted at all. In 2017, it was six of the top nine that weren’t drafted.

Now we move on to the championship round. Of the 35 most popular “players” on teams that advanced to championship week last season, 24 were either considered when picking in the first two rounds or not taken until the 13th round at the earliest (with 10 being completely undrafted, on average).

In fact, six of the seven players most rostered by ESPN champions last season were not drafted in most leagues (the only exception was Christian McCaffrey):

• Breshad Perriman: 0.3% drafted, on 27.2% of champion rosters
• A.J. Brown: 5.7% drafted, on 26.8% of champion rosters
• Tyler Higbee: 0.2% drafted, on 21.3% of champion rosters
• DeVante Parker: 9.8% drafted, on 21.2% of champion rosters
• Ryan Tannehill: 0.3% drafted, on 21.2% of champion rosters
• Raheem Mostert: 0.1% drafted, on 19.4% of champion rosters

This is a pattern we see every year. Champions are made of stars who perform, some late-round guys who pop and a few key free-agent pickups along the way. So, in the world of “what’s most likely to happen,” nail the first two rounds, but also be aggressive, especially as your draft gets later.

By the way, it’s worth noting that of the six flex players who made the undrafted portion of this list, three were receivers. I mentioned it earlier and I’ll say it again: Wait on WRs. There is no shortage of quality receivers this season, and just because you have your “starters” doesn’t mean the job is done, right? The draft is not the be-all and end-all, in either direction, for your season. So don’t get too excited or too down on yourself after the draft.

And finally, know that it’s not just about acquiring players (in the draft, via free agency, via trade) but also how you use them. In-season roster decision-making will be crucial for you to get to the promised land. But that’s for “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective In-Season Managers” article.

Final thoughts

I ask this every year, and we are making great progress, but our work is not done yet. Look, if you’ve read this far, you’re a gamer. You get it. You know how much fun, how awesome, how addictive fantasy football is. You know how it brings people together. So why keep it all to yourself? I am asking once again of everyone reading this:

Make it your goal to persuade one person in your life who has never played before to try a league this year. We need more women playing, more kids, more senior citizens. Fantasy football is something everyone can enjoy, so ask your parents, your kids, your neighbor, co-worker, someone.

Come on.

Just one new person.

Help me spread the word. Especially these days, when people are more isolated than ever, we need as many things that can bring us together as possible. What’s better than fantasy football?

If you won’t do it for yourself will you at least do it for me? I can’t rest until every man, woman and child plays fantasy football.

And finally, please remember, above all else, this is a hobby.

WE PLAY THIS FOR FUN.

You remember fun, right? Does anyone remember laughter? Fantasy football is a game. A pastime. Something we do to escape our grind, not worry about anything else going on in the world, and have fun while spending time with friends, family and co-workers.

We all get nervous, we all sweat wins, but ultimately … it’s a game. Remember that, especially when you feel like embarrassing yourself on social media to harass a player, a coach, a fantasy analyst or a league mate. And go easy on your commissioner. That’s a tough job already.

Just calm down, OK? Believe me, I get it. I’ve been in more than my share of email wars and angry text exchanges in years past. So I’m not being holier than thou. I’ve been there, my friend.

But please, I beg of you. There’s plenty of negativity in the world already; there is absolutely no reason for you to add to it over a hobby, or to lose a friendship over it.

So focus on the fun. Every league should have a punishment for last place (voted on by the entire league before the season and only to the level of embarrassment that everyone can handle). Try different league formats — from best ball to superflex to dynasty to a vampire league or one of the many forms of DFS … try them all, play them all.

And as you do, I’ll be here for you all year long, every day with the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast, four times a week with The Fantasy Show on ESPN+, every Sunday morning on ESPN2 with Fantasy Football Now, and of course every Thursday during the regular season right here with another year of Love/Hate. And as always I’ll be joined and helped by “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe and the Stat-a-Pillar himself, Damian Dabrowski. Thanks to them and, most of all, thanks very much to you. For reading this far and being a part of this amazing world of fantasy football. More than ever, we all need each other.

Matthew Berry — the Talented Mr. Roto — wonders which will end first: Him writing this column or Frank Gore’s career? Right now his money is on him ending the column before Frank hangs it up.