Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the 2016 NFL season. The games are listed in chronological order.
Note: Closing lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and pick percentages are via Wunderdog sports.
Week 4
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
Closing line: Redskins -7.5
Back in Week 4, the Redskins were still seeking their first cover as a favorite under quarterback Kirk Cousins. Washington was previously 0-6 ATS in those games, having lost outright four times. This game looked to be following that same script, as the Browns led 20-17 entering the final quarter.
Cleveland couldn’t get out of its own way down the stretch and turned it over on three consecutive possessions after taking the lead. Washington took advantage and scored 14 points off those turnovers. The Browns, who led with less than 11 minutes left and outgained the Redskins for the game, still ended up losing by double-digits. Cleveland went on to finish the season 5-11 ATS, tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Final score: Redskins 31, Browns 20 (Redskins cover)
Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Closing line: Cowboys -5
This would be the third straight Sunday Night Football game that went to overtime, with every game resulting in a bad beat for bettors. But none were worse than this one.
The Eagles took a 23-13 lead early in the fourth quarter, and those who took the underdog were feeling great. After all, if you factor in the spread, the Eagles were up 15. After forcing a three-and-out, Philadelphia had the ball but Wendell Smallwood fumbled on the first play of the drive to give it back to Dallas. It all went downhill for the Eagles after that. The Cowboys scored the next 10 points to send the game to overtime. Dallas won the toss and marched right down the field, capping off the drive with a Jason Witten 5-yard touchdown catch to win by six.
Final score: Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 in OT (Cowboys cover)
Week 11
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Closing line: Over/under 41.5
After opening at 47.5, the over/under for this game moved all the way down to 41.5 by kickoff. Heavy winds were expected at Metlife Stadium, and that turned out to be a huge factor in this one.
Playing without key offensive starters in Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, the Bears started strong, scoring on their first three possessions. Chicago led 16-9 at halftime with the total on pace to go over. In the second half, the Giants scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and took a 22-16 lead with 6:49 left in third quarter. But the game ended on a 21:49 scoring drought, with bettors who took the over falling 3.5 points short of cashing their tickets. A big reason was the kicking struggles — Robbie Gould and Connor Barth combined to miss three extra points and a field goal.
Final score: Giants 22, Bears 16 (Total goes under)
Week 12
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Closing line: Over/under 53
This wasn’t the greatest Thanksgiving for those who took the under.
After a scoreless third quarter, the Cowboys led 17-6 — 30 points shy of the closing total of 53. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Kirk Cousins hooked up with Jordan Reed for a 5-yard touchdown, marking the start of a wild final 15 minutes. The teams continued to exchange touchdowns throughout the quarter, and those who bet the spread were also on the edge of their seats — the Cowboys closed as a 5.5-point favorite. Trailing 31-19 at the two-minute warning, Cousins found Reed for another score to send the total over. The teams combined for five touchdowns in the final 15 minutes, as the 34 points ended up tied for fourth-highest scoring fourth quarter in 2016.
Final score: Cowboys 31, Redskins 26 (Total goes over)
Week 17
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Closing line: Falcons -7.5
The Falcons came into this game with plenty of motivation — a win and they would lock up the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
The eventual conference champions came out on fire and led 35-13 at halftime. That lead grew to 38-13 after three quarters, with those on Atlanta -7.5 looking like they had themselves a winning bet. But the Saints finished strong, scoring the game’s final 19 points, capped off by a Drew Brees to Travaris Cadet 3-yard touchdown. With the backdoor cover, New Orleans finished with the second-best ATS mark in the NFL at 11-5. As for the Falcons, it wouldn’t be the last time they were outscored 19-0 in a fourth quarter …
Final score: Falcons 38, Saints 32 (Saints cover)
Super Bowl LI
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Closing line: Patriots -3, Over/under 57
No game gets more action on it than the Super Bowl, and for most of the night, the winning sides appeared to be Atlanta and the under.
But that’s why they play 60 minutes, or in this case, even more than that.
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons have announced former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian as their offensive coordinator, replacing new San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.
New Rams coach Sean McVay is expected to hire Falcons QBs coach Matt LaFleur as his new offensive coordinator, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
1 Related
Sarkisian, who turns 43 next month, was an offensive analyst for the Crimson Tide before he took over as offensive coordinator for Alabama in the College Football Playoff title game after Lane Kiffin departed to become Florida Atlantic’s head coach.
Sarkisian was previously the head coach at USC and Washington. Sarkisian’s only NFL coaching experience came in 2004, when he was the Raiders’ quarterbacks coach on head coach Norv Turner’s staff.
“We appreciate all Coach Sarkisian did for our program during his time here,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said in a statement. “He is an outstanding coach, and we wish him the best in his new role as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator.”
Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant, who played at Washington, was excited to hear his former college coach is joining Atlanta.
“Sark? That’s crazy,” Trufant said Wednesday. “First of all, he’s competitive as hell. He’s got like a burning fire in his eyes. When he’s locked in, you just feel the intensity and energy from him. It’s like he’s playing. And he’s great leader, great motivator. That’s dope, man. I’m excited for him and happy for him.”
Sarkisian will have a fully loaded offense to work with, including MVP quarterback Matt Ryan, All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones, Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman and fellow running back Tevin Coleman. But he also has big shoes to fill, as Shanahan guided the Falcons to the top-ranked scoring offense in the NFL at 33.8 points per game, a crucial factor in the Falcons’ run to the Super Bowl.
2008
Dec. 8: Named head coach at Washington
2013
Dec. 2: Named head coach at USC
2015
Aug.: Reprimanded after appearing intoxicated at a booster event Oct.: Fired from USC, says he is checking into rehab Dec. 7:Files wrongful termination suit against USC (later agrees to binding arbitration)
2016
Sept. 5: Hired as an analyst at Alabama Dec. 16: Replaces departing Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator
2017
Jan. 9: Serves as Alabama O-coordinator in national championship loss to Clemson Feb. 7: Named Falcons’ O-coordinator
“Oh wow, he’s a great coach,” Hooper said. “I don’t know a whole lot about him. I know he’s been a successful coach. I’d like to sit down with him and try to figure out what he wants to run, try to master what he wants to do.”
This will be Ryan’s fourth offensive coordinator since the 2011 season, with Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Kyle Shanahan, and now Sarkisian.
Sarkisian has a familiarity with Falcons coach Dan Quinn. He visited Quinn during Atlanta’s training camp last summer and he also spent time with Quinn during his hiatus from coaching.
USC fired Sarkisian in October 2015 after then-athletic director Pat Haden said the coach showed up to school in no condition to lead practice following an embarrassing public display earlier at a pep rally where he appeared to be intoxicated while giving a speech.
He later sought treatment for alcoholism and sued USC alleging the school breached his contract and discriminated against him on the basis of a disability.
Sarkisian was Washington’s head coach from 2009 to 2013. He went 12-6 at USC and 34-29 at Washington, which had won just 12 games during the previous five seasons before his arrival. He was also offensive coordinator at USC in 2007-08.
With Steve Sarkisian becoming the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator on Tuesday, the team’s quarterbacks coach, Matt LaFleur, is expected to become the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator, according to sources.
In Los Angeles, LaFleur would reunite with new head coach Sean McVay. The two worked together in the past for the Washington Redskins.
McVay views LaFleur as a man capable of helping him implement his offense and teaching former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff how to shine in the NFL game.
Goff had a rocky rookie season, completing just 54.6 percent of his passes. He finished with 1,089 yards, five touchdown passes and seven interceptions in eight games (seven starts).
LaFleur, 37, just completed his second season as the Falcons’ quarterbacks coach.
Covered Vikings for Minneapolis Star Tribune, 1999-2008
Bill Belichick couldn’t help himself. A day after his New England Patriots won Super Bowl LI, the head coach bemoaned the work ahead.
“We are five weeks behind the rest of the NFL for the 2017 season,” Belichick said.
Indeed, the offseason is well underway throughout the league. Teams are preparing for free agency and the draft, and the NFL office is setting its own agenda.
What follows is an attempt to identify some of the key leaguewide issues the NFL will address before we see competitive football back on our televisions. It accepts as a given some of the existential and ongoing agenda items the league will always face, including concussions and domestic violence, and focuses instead on some of the more incremental challenges.
A few of the items covered in the 2016 edition of this post remain on the virtual docket, including improving replay review and repairing the Pro Bowl.
The decline was much more pronounced prior to the U.S. presidential election (14 percent) than it was afterward (1 percent). But the NFL can’t simply attribute it to the election and move on; the second-half improvement was due in part to the Dallas Cowboys’ outsized viewership numbers during the run-up to the playoffs. A much deeper examination is necessary, from advertising structure to kickoff times to game pace to scheduling.
It would be unrealistic to expect indefinite ratings growth, but at its core, the NFL is a television content producer. That is its product. The league must determine whether this drop was a function of larger issues within the broadcast industry or if it reflects a true decrease in interest.
2. Improve pace of game
Independent of its conclusions on ratings, the NFL could use a shake-up in its game administration and presentation. An anecdotal Vox.com study revealed that game action occurred on roughly 8 percent of an average game broadcast. The Wall Street Journal once estimated it at 11 minutes of a three-plus-hour game. The rest is consumed by commercials, between-play huddles, replays and the like.
(In 2016, the average time of game was 3:08, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. It was 3:09 in 2015, 3:06 in 2014 and 3:08 in 2013.)
The NFL is well aware of this challenge. At his annual Super Bowl news conference, commissioner Roger Goodell mentioned a number of possibilities for cutting time, including reducing commercial breaks from five to four per quarter, setting a “play clock” to cap the time between an extra point and the ensuing kickoff and using Microsoft Surface Pro tablets for replay reviews. Presumably, the NFL would exchange fewer commercials for higher prices.
Those changes might shave a few minutes from the overall time of game, if that. But most fans and viewers would agree — I hope — that less dead time is better.
3. Circle back on the kickoff rule
Owners must decide whether to discard, alter or make permanent the rule change that moved touchbacks from the 20- to the 25-yard line. The impact of the adjustment, designed to reduce injuries by incentivizing fewer returns, was mild at best.
Kickoff returns fell by 1.8 percentage points, from 41.1 percent of all kickoffs in 2015 to 39.3 in 2016. The touchback rate rose only slightly, from 56 percent to 57.6 percent, as many coaches sought to eliminate the incentive by kicking short of the end zone. Concussions on returns dropped by 15 percent, from 20 to 17, according to the NFL. Overall, however, there were more total injuries on kickoff returns in 2016 (39) than 2015 (35). The total accounts for ACL tears, MCL tears, concussions and hamstring strains.
Given that modest impact, and in light of the pace-of-game issue, the NFL might hesitate to continue with a play that brings action less than half the time. Look for the competition committee to consider a proposal from special-teams coordinators that would make the kickoff more like a punt, with most of the return team up on the line to minimize full-speed collisions.
4. Expand ‘My Cause, My Cleats’ initiative
In Week 13, the NFL gave players permission to wear custom cleats to raise money for the charity of their choice. More than 500 participated in what was a roundly applauded project that, for one week, allowed players to circumvent the league’s strict equipment and uniform code.
We know the NFL isn’t going to go bananas and allow players to choose their cleat color/style every week. But must “My Cause, My Cleats” be limited to one week? Money was raised by auctioning off the game-worn cleats at an NFL Auction. More weeks, and more cleats, would seem to be better than the alternative.
Expect the NFL to look into the possibilities. Business and licensing agreements are no doubt a consideration, but the goodwill — both in public and with players — would seem to be worth at least some revenue, if it comes to that.
The dream, of course, is to use technology — rather than a 10-yard chain and an official’s subjective eye — to spot balls more accurately.
As we noted earlier this season, chips alone can’t tell officials where to mark the ball. A critical piece of data would still be missing. The chip can tell you where the ball is, but the official would still need to determine when the player was down — a task that would depend on eyeballs unless RFID chips were placed on the knees and elbows of every player.
But the chips, if reliable and durable, could still be useful, perhaps in replays to determine whether the ball crossed the goal line.
6. Adjust the Thursday night game schedule
Regardless of whether we want them or whether players like them, Thursday night games are here to stay. They will generate nearly $1 billion in revenue over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, and the NFL’s data — it’s what the league uses, whether you accept it or not — indicates that injury rates are no higher on Thursdays than they are on Sundays or Mondays.
“Thursday Night Football is something that we are very committed to,” Goodell said at Super Bowl LI.
That doesn’t make it impossible to change, and the NFL appears to realize that. Goodell indicated that the league might back away from its current mandate that all teams make at least one appearance per season. That would reduce the number of small-market matchups in prime time. As much as we love the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, their annual Thursday night matchups don’t appeal to everyone.
7. Address celebration penalties
In at least some corners of the NFL, there was agreement that rules designed to prevent fights and promote sportsmanship have gone too far. The results were 30 demonstration penalties, including some for seemingly harmless acts such as pantomiming a basketball jump shot and pretending to shoot a bow and arrow. They were a small part of the more than 40,000 plays during the season, but they presented an outsized impression of a league focused on frivolous discipline.
Goodell said he will “look at” the resulting criticism in the offseason to see if there is a way to find a better balance between sportsmanship and “trying to allow players the ability to express themselves in an exuberant way.” Establishing a higher standard for taunting would be a reasonable and effective start.
8. Assess the California situation
The NFL appears to have reached the saturation point of its stadium-leverage game, at two franchises short of completion. Currently, no one wants the Chargers or the Raiders — at least not in the way the league is accustomed to.
San Diego ultimately refused the demands of Chargers owner Dean Spanos. Las Vegas isn’t offering the Raiders as sweet of a deal to relocate as it once appeared. As a result, the mighty NFL has the Chargers playing in a 30,000-seat soccer stadium for two years before they become tenants in the Rams’ privately built stadium. The Raiders are stuck in Oakland’s decrepit, multisport Oakland-Alameda County Stadium.
Is this situation unique to California, a state long opposed to public subsidies for new football stadiums? Or will it impact the next round of stadium requests — in, say, Buffalo, Kansas City or Washington, D.C. — in a way that will permanently discourage public funds? That will be a focal point in this offseason and beyond.
But the rhetoric has increased in recent months, and Goodell said the league is “actively considering it” at the moment.
Some coaches would prefer bigger practice squads for developmental purposes, rather than turning over young players to another set of coaches. That’s understandable and helps explain the paralysis on this issue. The league might well decide that expanded rosters are a more efficient way to start, but they’ll also need to figure out how to get those players meaningful work on the field. Those discussions should occur this offseason.
The NFL will be studying the impact of the CFL’s video official to see if there is anything to glean from it. Mike Pereira, the NFL’s former vice president of officiating, believes the league has already taken on an unwritten version of this approach. Pereira said in December that some referees rely on illicit advice over their wireless headsets from their replay officials, who are perched in the press box, to fix mistakes.
The next step should be to codify this practice so there is no question or rumor-mongering about what might be happening out of plain sight.