INDIANAPOLIS — Adrian Peterson is, unless he takes a pay cut from the Minnesota Vikings, headed into free agency.
The Vikings informed the former league MVP and rushing champion they would not exercise his option, which included a $6 million roster bonus. And while he and the Vikings have left the door cracked for a return, Peterson will likely join the growing list of marquee players in the free-agency era who have switched jerseys late in their careers.
It’s the way of the NFL world. Even Peyton Manning finished his career in Denver after being released by the Indianapolis Colts. As Peterson moves on to see what his value is as a 30-something running back, it is a time to look at his football resume. Is he Canton-worthy right now?
Only two running backs ahead of Adrian Peterson on the NFL’s career rushing list have not been elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King
Peterson has been framed as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. His numbers are decidedly impressive, but there is a bit of an inconvenient truth with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Unless you are a longtime franchise quarterback with multiple Super Bowl wins, you are not a lock to get in.
But again, most of the players who weren’t face-of-the-franchise passers usually have waited for Canton far longer than they expected. It’s a numbers game, and it’s difficult to move to the front of the line.
Two running backs — LaDainian Tomlinson and Terrell Davis — are in the Hall’s class of 2017. Davis was a finalist four times, including a five-year gap between his first and second times as a finalist.
Tomlinson was a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so he provides a model for Peterson’s candidacy. Tomlinson finished with 13,684 yards rushing and, like Peterson to this point, did not have a Super Bowl ring.
But the Hall of Fame process is about breaking ties. Decisions are made as the first list of eligible players is trimmed to 25 in the selection process, to the 15 finalists, and finally to as many as five who can be selected for enshrinement.
Will Peterson make it on the first try? Tomlinson had 624 career receptions, 383 more than Peterson, to go with 162 career touchdowns, 60 more than Peterson. Tomlinson’s numbers were certainly first-ballot worthy.
Jerome Bettis, a Hall of Famer who finished with 13,662 career rushing yards, had the same kind of statistical profile as Peterson — he had 200 career receptions and averaged one fewer yard per carry in his career than Peterson’s current 4.9. But Bettis was a finalist for the Hall of Fame five times before he was selected for enshrinement.
In the end, many will characterize Peterson’s Hall of Fame candidacy as a no-brainer. History says so, with 15 of the 21 running backs with more than 11,000 yards rushing having been fitted for a gold jacket.
And Peterson probably will likely get one of his own at some point. It just might take more than one swing.
Covered Vikings for Minneapolis Star Tribune, 1999-2008
It’s fashionable and fun to declare immediate victors after the first few days of NFL free agency. The formula usually goes like this: Teams “win” when they sign well-known players, especially if they set new benchmarks in contract terms, and they “lose” when they fail to address their needs with a well-known player who costs a ton of money.
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A year later, of course, we have a much better idea of who made smart decisions. (Retrospect is the ultimate cheat code for sports analysis!) It shows us whose moves failed for reasons beyond their control and who might have stumbled into good moves. We can even see when a team was saved from flawed intentions.
So as we look ahead at the 2017 market, let’s consider an updated review of five winners and losers from last season’s frenzy.
Winners
New York Giants
The Giants blazed a relatively rare path: a team making tangible improvement on the strength of a free-agent spending spree. It’s impossible to dispute the impact on their five-game turnaround from signing pass-rusher Olivier Vernon, defensive tackle Damon Harrison and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. The Giants’ defense rose in Football Outsiders’ annual DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) rankings from No. 30 in 2015 to No. 2 in 2016. Along with improvement from safety Landon Collins, that was enough to lift the Giants into the playoffs. They fully guaranteed $90 million to those three free agents, and for at least one year, it paid actual dividends.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins quarterback
By remaining firm on a lowball offer, and then throwing for nearly 5,000 yards as the Redskins’ franchise player, Cousins put himself in position to be the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback whenever he signs a long-term contract. He can now sit back and know that all of the Redskins’ options are favorable to him. They can pay him $23.94 million on the franchise tag in 2017 (and $34.5 million in 2018 if they choose). They can allow him to become a free agent, a rarity for an established quarterback because it would lead to a massive bidding war among quarterback-desperate teams. Or they could offer a monster deal to Cousins that matches the franchise structure. At the very least, Cousins seems to be in position to earn nearly $78 million in the three seasons from 2016 to 2018.
In his first season with the Falcons, Alex Mack made a big impact at center. Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
A couple of major hits helped the Falcons get over the hump and to Super Bowl LI. Quarterback Matt Ryan, receiver Julio Jones and coordinator Kyle Shanahan got most of the credit for raising the team’s offensive DVOA to No. 1 in the NFL from No. 23 in 2015. But center Alex Mack (second-team All-Pro) played an equally significant role and was worth every penny of a five-year deal that fully guaranteed him $20 million. Meanwhile, Mohamed Sanu (59 receptions) was the Falcons’ second-leading receiver and Taylor Gabriel (35 receptions, six touchdowns) was their fourth.
Howie Roseman, Philadelphia Eagles general manager
Roseman raised a few eyebrows when he traded up to draft quarterback Carson Wentz, even after he had re-signed Sam Bradford to a two-year deal (with $22 million in full guarantees) and also acquired backup Chase Daniel to a deal that fully guaranteed him $12 million. But Roseman was able to flip Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings, albeit as the result of Teddy Bridgewater’s freak injury. As a consequence, the Eagles got out from under Bradford’s contract and also recouped a 2017 first-round draft pick. All’s well that ends well.
Oakland Raiders
No matter who else was involved, the Raiders’ 2016 free-agency foray would have been a winner for the simple inclusion of guard Kelechi Osemele. The Raiders paid dearly for him — a five-year deal with $31.1 million in full guarantees — but he helped transform the Raiders into a playoff team. Osemele’s arrival turned a good offensive line into one of the NFL’s best, an under-acknowledged part of quarterback Derek Carr’s MVP-caliber season. Osemele earned first-team All-Pro honors as the Raiders recorded the NFL’s second-lowest pressure rate (18.5 percent) while ranking No. 10 in yards per rush (4.43).
The free-agent spending spree by the Giants, especially on defense, helped the franchise get to the playoffs in 2016. AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Put simply, the Brock Osweiler signing provided one of the worst outcomes in recent free-agent history. Osweiler’s accuracy was brutal, resulting in the NFL’s seventh-worst off-target percentage, and his average of 5.26 yards per dropback was the NFL’s worst. No quarterback was less explosive on a per-pass basis, and the Texans benched him in Week 15. But he is guaranteed $16 million in 2017 whether he plays or not, making it difficult to extricate quickly from the mistake. Osweiler had shown some promise with the Denver Broncos in 2015. But in retrospect, it was in a small sample size (seven starts). Quarterback desperation might be the NFL’s worst toxin.
Cleveland Browns
Although the Browns accurately assessed their situation for 2016 — they were not close to competing for the Super Bowl — they might have underestimated the impact of flushing their roster as aggressively as they did. That was especially true at offensive line, where the decision to move on from Mack and tackle Mitchell Schwartz left them with a weak group that stunted any attempt to develop or evaluate quarterback prospects. Browns quarterbacks were sacked on an NFL-high 10.1 percent of their dropbacks. As a result, the Browns made no discernible progress as a franchise other than accumulating draft picks last season. Allowing receiver Gabriel to depart also seemed short-sighted after he turned into a productive playmaker for the Falcons.
Impatience, many players
The recent salary-cap surge has flooded the market with cash. Nearly $1 billion was available last spring, and that total will increase in 2017. The clear takeaway is that prominent free agents can get better deals on the open market, if they have the patience (and desire) to turn down their incumbent team’s best offers. The best 2016 example was a pair of Broncos linemen. Before the market opened, Derek Wolfe signed a nice four-year deal with $12 million in full guarantees. Later, teammate Malik Jackson received a whopping six-year contract with $31.5 million in full guarantees from the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are not identical players, to be sure. And some players prefer familiar surroundings over top dollar. But there is little doubt where the best money can be found.
Chargers corner Casey Hayward finished with an NFL-high seven interceptions last season. Andy Lyons/Getty Images
To be clear, the Jaguars signed some players with individual talents. Jackson produced 6.5 sacks. Cornerback Prince Amukamara and safety Tashaun Gipson are good players. But when you commit $58 million in full guarantees to a class, you expect immediate improvement. (The group also includes running back Chris Ivory.) Instead, the Jaguars fell back by two games and finished 3-13. Perhaps some of these players will contribute to a big leap in 2017 under new coach Doug Marrone. Until then, however, the Jaguars’ 2016 class must be considered a flop.
Two years after bringing home Darrelle Revis with the richest contract in franchise history, the New York Jets have informed their former Pro Bowl cornerback they will release him on March 9, the start of the league calendar.
The announcement, made Tuesday night by the team, came as no surprise. It culminated months of speculation. Revis, 31, suffered a sharp decline in his skill and was scheduled to count $15.3 million against the 2017 salary cap.
Revis’ ouster came 11 days after he was charged with four felonies, including aggravated assault, stemming from his alleged role in a street fight in his hometown of Pittsburgh. He’s due in court March 15 for a pre-trial hearing.
Revis’ legal issues didn’t factor into the team’s decision to release him, a source said, adding that it was “100 percent football related.” The Jets are in rebuilding mode, and sources said the organization had decided weeks ago to release Revis.
The Jets had to make a decision on Darrelle Revis’ fate with the team by March 10. Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports
Revis won’t go away empty-handed. Per the five-year, $70 million contract he signed in 2015, he’s due a $6 million guarantee for 2017. That amount can be defrayed by the amount he makes in 2017 from his next team.
The Jets won’t try to recoup the $6 million, a source said. Revis’ recent arrest fueled speculation the Jets could try to contest the guarantee. The team performed its obligatory due diligence on the matter, studying the contract language, but it decided not to pursue the matter.
Revis had indicated a willingness to accept a pay cut, but one was never offered. He also offered to switch to safety, but the Jets never gave serious consideration to the idea of him playing safety, a source said.
“Darrelle Revis is one of the greatest players to ever wear a Jets uniform,” owner Woody Johnson said in a statement. “His combination of talent, preparation and instincts is rare and helped him become one of the most dominant players of his generation. I appreciate Darrelle’s contributions to this organization and, wherever his career takes him, his home will always be here with the Jets.”
Revis returned to the Jets in 2015 after winning a Super Bowl with the New England Patriots. It was hailed as one of the biggest acquisitions in team history — he received $39 million fully guaranteed — but the second marriage failed to live up to expectations.
Revis made his seventh Pro Bowl in 2015, but he wasn’t the same player last season. He admittedly reported to training camp out of shape and he was embarrassed on several occasions in coverage.
“Darrelle is the consummate professional and one of the greatest to ever play the cornerback position,” coach Todd Bowles said.
Revis, a first-round pick in 2007, ascended to stardom early in his career and became known as the premier cornerback in the NFL. His ability to dominate the top receivers launched the “Revis Island” moniker.
“When you’re dealing with a player of Darrelle’s caliber, these decisions are extremely hard to make,” general manager Mike Maccagnan said. “We all have a great deal of respect for Darrelle and the significance of his time with the Jets cannot be overstated. He provided an example of how a pro should approach his craft and established his place in NFL history as one of the best at his position.”
Breaking the record for the fastest 40-yard dash at the NFL combine isn’t only about bragging rights. It might be about winning an entire island.
Adidas is offering an island to any prospect who breaks the 4.24-second time clocked at the combine by Chris Johnson in 2008, as long as he does it in the company’s 2017 Adizero 5-Star 40 cleats and agrees to endorse the company’s shoes for the entire 2017-18 season.
Adidas is offering an island to any prospect who breaks the 4.24-second time clocked at the combine by Chris Johnson in 2008. AP Photo/Michael Conroy
The fine print says that Adidas agrees to provide a winner with an island “as soon as reasonably possible” but that the company can also just pay the athlete $1 million instead. The company is not responsible for the payment of any taxes on the prize.
A search of private-island sale sites reveals many islands in Canada and Central America that can be bought for less than $1 million.
Eric Dickerson, who owns the NFL record for single-season rushing yards, joked that the potential award is much better than what he got when he went for 2,105 yards in 1984.
— Eric Dickerson (@EricDickerson) February 28, 2017
Over the years, Adidas has given endorsement deals or cash prizes of $100,000 to the prospects who have run the fastest time. It offered $1 million cash last year if someone could set a new mark.
Times are expected to be challenged at the NFL combine in Indianapolis on Friday and Saturday when the running backs and wide receivers go through the drills.
Free agency begins on March 9, the start of the NFL’s new league year. The deadline to franchise or transition tag a player is March 1. Here’s more from ESPN.com:
