The Washington Redskins and Kirk Cousins remain at an impasse, with one week left before the deadline for the franchise tag. It’s not exactly a surprising spot, considering the leverage of one side and the clear doubts on the other. And it makes sense for Cousins to stay unsigned.
So says a veteran of NFL front offices, Joe Banner.
He spent 17 seasons as president of the Philadelphia Eagles; two years as the CEO of the Cleveland Browns and two more years as a front office consultant to the Atlanta Falcons. He offers a unique perspective and understands the dilemma facing the Redskins — and Cousins’ unique position.
Kirk Cousins may not want to sign a long-term deal with the Redskins this offseason, knowing that he could hit the open market a year from now. Daniel Kucin Jr./Icon Sportswire
“If I was the agent, I’d want to see if they tag me before I did anything,” Banner said. “If they don’t tag me, I’d love to hit the open market and if they do tag me, use that as the base to open the negotiations. It’s pointless to negotiate now until the player and agent know whether or not they’re getting tagged.”
Here’s why: If the Redskins somehow let Cousins hit the open market, Banner said it would result in a big payday.
“He’d get a huge deal and would become the highest-paid QB by a moderate amount,” he said.
Cousins’ potential, and just how good he already is, has led to many debates. Banner places Cousins in the good-but-not-great camp. That doesn’t mean his pay would be commensurate.
“We’ve all wondered if a quality quarterback actually hit the market in his 20s where he had six or seven years left to play and total unrestricted free agency, what is his real market value?” Banner said. “We don’t know that. No one has had that opportunity or had the patience to get tagged twice. He’s now very close and in complete control and whether or not that happens, that’s a powerful place to be.”
Banner said the options here are clear. The Redskins can let Cousins walk (which he said he doesn’t believe they’re considering), tag him or do a long-term deal.
And that would lead to a deal that will cost quite a bit.
“The only way you get it done is if you pay him,” Banner said. “You probably have to make him the highest paid, at least to this point. Losing him is a terrible option. Keeping him on a one-year deal is the best under the circumstances, but it’s not a great option and having to overpay with a long-term deal with a huge signing bonus. If you think he’s the answer, it’s a no-brainer. But if you think he’s good but not good enough to carry the team, that’s problematic.”
“How high the picks would be,” said Banner of a possible deal involving Cousins. “Could you get meaningful compensation in a trade? Here’s the problem with quarterbacks: It’s as big a difference-making position in all of sports and there’s a big short of talent versus the number you need. … The problem is if they trade him, where are they at the position that most defines your ability to win or lose?”
Some of that depends on how they view other solutions — and if they believe Cousins is truly worth $20 million more than backup Colt McCoy.
Still, Cousins is in a unique position. He’s had success — how much is due to him is part of the debate — who plays the most important position and who is willing to play on one-year deals knowing the potential market that exists.
And that leads to this thought: Even if the Redskins come close to the offer Cousins is seeking, he might not sign. After all, a year from now he would have freedom to choose the best situation, which may or may not be Washington.
“Why would you take a deal [now] unless you really, really love where you are and think you have a chance to win big? You love your coaches, you love everything,” Banner said. “Let’s say they tag him and he hits the market [in 2018], that doesn’t preclude him from signing with the Redskins. So I’m sure that’s part of their private conversations. And you’re betting that you play reasonably well.
“If they tag him this year and he got hurt and it’s not career-ending but consequential but he’ll be fine for 2018? He still gets a massive deal. The risk of playing under the tag for a year is pretty small and the potential upside is very large. I wouldn’t want to be the one trying to negotiate on behalf of the Redskins.”
The return after almost two full seasons on the sideline wasn’t what Victor Cruz anticipated. He finished with 39 catches for 586 yards and one touchdown, which came in the season opener against the Dallas Cowboys.
There were games when the ball wasn’t even thrown in Cruz’s direction. There were games when he was merely an afterthought. There were afternoons when he ran 40-plus routes and his only opportunity resulted in a big play downfield. It was up, down and filled with inconsistent production.
There still were positives to take from the season. The comeback after missing almost two years with a torn patellar tendon and then a calf problem was inspiring. A torn patellar tendon has ruined many a career. Cruz at least looked the part of an NFL player when the ball was thrown in his direction.
That is an accomplishment. There are two injuries that players are scared of these days, according to Odell Beckham Jr. They are a torn patellar tendon and a ruptured Achilles. Cruz had the former, followed by a serious calf injury that robbed him of 2015. Just making it back from the injuries was encouraging for Cruz, and so was playing in 16 games (including playoffs) with only a minor ankle sprain keeping him from appearing in every Giants contest this past season.
“Staying healthy is obviously encouraging,” Giants coach Ben McAdoo said after the season.
But this is a business, and Cruz was cut last week. His production and lack of explosion made him expendable with Roger Lewis and Tavarres King, or a potential draft pick or free agent, as his replacement.
Cruz wasn’t an ideal fit on the outside opposite Beckham. After spending most of his career working out of the slot, Cruz was bumped outside to make room for rookie Sterling Shepard. It didn’t maximize his chance to succeed, and contributed to his departure.
Now Cruz is a free agent, a better fit for a team looking for a veteran to play in the slot. Suitors must determine how much he has left in the tank. Cruz says plenty. The other 31 teams will decide.
Victor Cruz likely would benefit from being moved back into a slot role he occupied most of his career. Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports
Free agent file
Victor Cruz
Position: Wide receiver
Age: 30
Experience: 6 years
Projected contract: 1 year, $2.5 million, $1 million guaranteed
(Note: The projected contract was derived from the average of five league sources surveyed. The panel consists of a front-office executive, salary-cap experts and agents.)
Boldin signed with the Detroit Lions last offseason for one year and $2.75 million at age 35. He had the potential to earn another $1 million or so with incentives that would have been hard to reach.
Cruz is younger, but his injury history is more extensive. He also has a different skill set with Boldin being a bigger possession receiver.
Stevie Johnson might be more applicable to Cruz because he was going to be 29 when he signed with the San Diego Chargers in 2015 after struggling with some injuries the previous two years. Johnson received a three-year, $10.5 million deal with $3.9 million guaranteed. That deal basically guaranteed him one season and allowed San Diego the option each of the next two years to decide if they wanted to keep Johnson on the roster. It’s the equivalent of a one-year deal with team options.
Market: Cruz’s market will be interesting. Some teams will undoubtedly think there is little to nothing left in the tank. There are likely to be a few (Cruz met with the Carolina Panthers on Monday) that are willing to invest minimally in hopes that he gets stronger in his second year back from injury and thrives in a return to the slot. Some teams that could fit are the Steelers, Titans, Panthers, Ravens and Bills. The Giants have Shepard. They will not be in the hunt.
What he brings: Cruz isn’t the explosive player he once was, or at least it didn’t appear that way this past season. But he was still able to make tough, contested catches downfield and did it in clutch situations. He’s a veteran receiver who is best suited for the slot and could improve physically in his second season back after missing most of the previous two years.
Synopsis: It’s back to square one. Cruz has to prove he still can play at a high level, and he will not be paid at a Pro Bowl level. At 30, he should still have something left to give a team looking for a veteran wide receiver. His best fit is probably as a fourth receiver. The problem with that is that he doesn’t contribute on special teams. That will limit his market.
Chances of a Giants return: 1 percent
The Giants elected to dump Cruz and his hefty salary rather than try to renegotiate his contract after the season. They did so because they weren’t sold on him being able to thrive on the outside opposite Beckham with Shepard in the slot. It would take a near impossible string of events in order for Cruz to return for another season.
Silence can be golden, but the silence regarding the talks to keep Terrelle Pryor off the free-agent market seem mildly concerning.
Especially for those who want to see Pryor remain with the Cleveland Browns.
The team and Pryor’s camp both have maintained a public silence about the situation, with the only comments from Pryor at the end of the season that he told his agent he wanted to stay in Cleveland, but a deal has to be fair to both sides. That’s a point that has yet to arrive.
As the March 9 date for the start of free agency approaches, the deadline for placing the franchise tag on Pryor gets closer. That’s a move neither the team nor the player wants.
The nuances of the tag are explained here by ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. The bottom line is the tag essentially keeps a player with his team, and pays him very well. The teams don’t like to anger the player, who loses freedom, nor do they like the high salary that goes with the tag. Players don’t like their chance at not being able to decide where they want to play.
The Browns could put one of two tags on Pryor. The first keeps him from seeking offers. The second allows him to sign an offer sheet, and if the Browns don’t match, they receive two first-round draft picks.
The Browns would probably make that trade yesterday. No team is going to sign Pryor to that kind of contract and give up two first-round picks to get him. He simply has not played enough receiver to warrant that consideration.
Franchising Pryor would keep him in Cleveland at a price expected to be near $15.8 million. If he’s franchised, the Browns could continue to negotiate a long-term deal. Pryor also could sign the offer at any time.
Once he signs the franchise offer, he becomes the NFL’s highest-paid receiver, in terms of cash paid in 2017.
The Rams’ Tavon Austin right now is the due to receive $14.977 million in cash and bonuses, according to both ESPN’s Roster Management System and spotrac.com. Next are Dallas’ Dez Bryant ($13 million), Denver’s Demaryius Thomas ($12.5 million), Atlanta’s Julio Jones ($11.5 million) and Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald ($11 million).
Pryor would pass them all, and the Browns would have to swallow the entire salary-cap cost. ?Cleveland, though, is one team for which that cost would not matter. The Browns are projected to have around $108 million in salary-cap room when free agency begins.
As Seifert points out, in the past five years, 47 players were franchised. Twenty-two signed the offer, 24 signed long-term extensions and one signed a modified deal — that was Jason Pierre-Paul, after his fireworks accident.
With only one full season of experience at receiver, it’s proving difficult to judge a fair contract for Terrelle Pryor. Jason Miller/Getty Images
The advantage for the Browns is clear. They retain their top receiver for at least one year, which is important, given the lack of depth at the position in general. If Pryor leaves, the Browns are suddenly barren at receiver.
The team also gets another year to see Pryor at the position and assess his long-term value. The fact that no deal has been agreed to indicates the team and player disagree about that value.
Dawson was and is the ultimate professional, and even he didn’t appreciate being tagged. Players simply don’t like it. A player like Pryor worked his entire life for the chance he has now — to be rewarded by the team that gave him a chance or to test his value on the market, where teams typically are overly generous.
Having that freedom revoked usually does not go over well. It’s tough to project how well Pryor would do on the market, but at 27, he might be at his peak in terms of marketability.
ESPN’s Roster Management System analyzes age and production, and it shows 27 is when a receiver hits his peak. He then maintains a high level through the age of 31. At 32 is when productions starts to drop.
The other risk for a player is injury. If a player has a serious injury while on a one-year contract, his bargaining power decreases.
However, the tags were negotiated by the players and management in collective bargaining, so players must live with them.
In Pryor’s case, he’d live with it for a year. At least he’d live well.
Many NFL teams script their first 15 (or more) plays before a game starts to focus on getting a few fundamental concepts right. Whether they want to attack a particular defensive player or scheme, exploit a perceived weakness or simply drill down on the offensive elements they think are most critical to winning, they pay particularly close attention to the plays they’ll start with on Sunday as they wrap up the week.
Likewise, organizations need to pay attention to the first few critical things they do during the 2017 offseason, as those might end up defining the season to come. Some teams have a lot to do before the new league year begins March 9, while others won’t have to make critical calls until the first day of the NFL draft on April 27.
In this series for ESPN over the next two weeks, I’ll be running through the first five things that should be on the minds of each team’s brass as they prepare for the 2017 offseason. Let’s head to the AFC South, starting with the division champion Texans.
1. Pick up Jadeveon Clowney’s fifth-year option. This isn’t quite as obvious as some of the other names from the 2014 draft, owing to Clowney’s struggles to stay healthy. Clowney’s fifth-year option for 2018 would be guaranteed for injury, so if he suffered a serious injury, the Texans could be on the hook for a player who can’t really contribute. Clowney wasn’t quite as productive in 2016 as his highlight reel might indicate — he finished the year with 6.0 sacks and 17 quarterback hits, roughly in line with what Akiem Hicks (seven sacks and 17 hits) accomplished — but he’s too devastating of a force on his best day for the Texans to decline a fifth cost-controlled season.
2. Trade the 25th pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo. As I wrote about in the AFC East preview, the Texans make the most sense for Garoppolo. They have a coach in Bill O’Brien who is familiar with the scheme Garoppolo was running in New England. They’re a win-now team with a huge need at quarterback. They have an asset that makes sense to deal for Garoppolo: It would be virtually unprecedented for a team to deal a top-five pick for a backup one year away from free agency, such as Garoppolo, so the 25th pick might be a better offer for the Patriots than one of the early second-rounders likely to come from the Browns or 49ers.
Garoppolo is also the most obvious upgrade the Texans can make, given their cap situation. With $26.7 million available this year and several starters needed on defense, Houston can afford to sign Garoppolo to an extension, which would essentially start next season. (They could give the Pats backup a signing bonus and spread it over the length of a four- or five-year deal.) Garoppolo’s base salary can spike next year, once the Texans release Brock Osweiler, who will presumably be chained to the bench after this deal occurs. Here’s a possible Garoppolo deal, which ironically resembles Osweiler’s contract, as a five-year, $100 million deal with $38 million guaranteed (and bolded):
If the bidding goes much further than the 25th pick, though, the Texans need to bow out. They can’t trade a bunch of picks for Garoppolo. Maybe they could send a conditional late-round pick to the Patriots if Garoppolo makes the Pro Bowl, or they could trade a fifth-rounder for a player buried on another team’s depth chart who might need a change of scenery. Beyond that, the Texans would be risking too much.
3. Re-sign A.J. Bouye and trade Johnathan Joseph for a draft pick. The Texans probably can’t afford to re-sign Bouye, who is in line to make $12 million or so per year on the free market, while also retaining both Joseph and Kareem Jackson. Houston can franchise Bouye for $14.3 million en route to a long-term deal for their budding superstar at corner, who will turn 26 just before the season.
The logical move, then, would be to trade Joseph, who is entering the final year of his deal at a very reasonable cap hit ($6.9 million) as he turns 33. Joseph is still playing at a high level, but the Texans probably don’t want to be in the business of betting on cornerbacks as they enter their mid-30s, as the sudden fall of Darrelle Revis should remind onlookers. If Bouye leaves, chances are that the Texans will be looking for a cornerback across from Jackson by 2018.
4. Lock up DeAndre Hopkins. Busy offseason, huh? The Texans obviously want to bring back their star wide receiver, who had a frustrating 2016 while dealing with Osweiler. The good news is the disappointing season might bring his demands down on a long-term contract; the Texans will probably be able to buy relatively low on their former first-round pick as he enters the fifth and final year of his rookie deal.
DeAndre Hopkins’ season was often a struggle, but don’t blame the wide receiver. Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
1. Get Arthur Jones to take a pay cut. New general manager Chris Ballard has $60 million in cap space to work with, so he doesn’t necessarily need to be spendthrift, but Jones has been a disaster since coming over from the Ravens, due to injuries and suspensions. He’s unlikely to stick on his current $7.4 million cap hit, so the Colts will probably either ask him to take a pay cut or release the former Ravens standout outright.
2. Fix the right side of the offensive line. Keeping Andrew Luck safe is job No. 1 for Ballard, after the deposed Ryan Grigson repeatedly struck out in doing so. The Colts are locked into the trio of Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort and Ryan Kelly, and while Castonzo hasn’t been an upper-echelon left tackle, moving him to a position he hasn’t played as a pro in right tackle is probably just going to make things more difficult.
Ballard can’t go into Week 1 with Denzelle Good and Joe Haeg on the right side of the line. He could very well use his first-round pick on a tackle, while heading into free agency for somebody such as Larry Warford or Kevin Zeitler to play right guard. Luck’s ability and desire to extend plays means he’ll always take more hits than most quarterbacks, but teams can’t be allowed to tee off on Indy’s franchise quarterback any longer.
3. Find a top pass-rusher. Easier said than done, but the Colts are totally bereft on the edge. Erik Walden had a career year with an 11-sack campaign, but he’s a free agent and turns 32 before the season. Robert Mathis, the only other player on the team who topped three sacks, retired. Trent Cole is on his way out. Akeem Ayers is a free agent. Outside linebacker is a gaping hole.
A player like Nick Perry would look good in blue, but will he even be available? Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
4. Find a long-term solution at running back. Frank Gore has been underwhelming during his time in Indianapolis, although the offensive line hasn’t helped much. The Colts could consider cutting the veteran back before the final year of his deal to save $3.5 million, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Indy hold onto Gore as part of a rotation with a younger back, one who will take over as the starter in 2018 and beyond.
That back will most likely come in the draft, given that this is a relatively robust draft class of halfbacks. Indy could feasibly consider Leonard Fournette, if he drops to the 14th pick, although the Colts have too many holes along the line of scrimmage to spend such a high selection on a running back. It’s more plausible for Ballard to consider somebody such as Christian McCaffrey, if he slipped to Round 2.
5. Add a second tight end. The Colts might be priced out of the market for Jack Doyle in a relatively thin tight end class, and they can’t really afford to pay their second tight end $6 million per year to line up behind Dwayne Allen. They could take a shot on somebody such as Luke Willson or Mychal Rivera, but more plausibly, this would be a position for the Colts to address in the draft.
If his market falls to the $4 million range, though, the Colts might very well be able to justify bringing back Doyle after a breakout 59-catch campaign. Is he worth it? Hard to say. Over the past four seasons, no wide receiver or tight end with 100 targets or more has caught a higher percentage of the passes thrown his way than Doyle (79.7 percent). Not coincidentally, though, the average pass thrown to Doyle has traveled just 4.7 yards in the air, the lowest total in the league by nearly seven-tenths of a yard.
1. Cut Davon House and Dan Skuta. The Jaguars already began their annual culling of disappointing free agents by trading Julius Thomas and cutting Jared Odrick, but that’s only the beginning. Like Odrick, House and Skuta each played fewer than 25 percent of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps while giving way to younger talents in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. The Jagus don’t need the cap space, but they’re better off applying the $18.6 million in actual cash that would have gone to Odrick, House and Skuta toward new talent.
2. Re-sign Prince Amukamara. The former Giants corner benefited from playing across from Ramsey, who was a star from Week 1, but Amukamara rebuilt his value with a useful 2016 campaign and is in line for a raise on the $5.5 million he made last year. The Jags don’t have much at cornerback after Ramsey and Amukamara if they release House, and while they can address the position by adding a different free agent or hitting it during the draft, they certainly have the cap space to retain Amukamara. In fact, given that the Jags would have $81 million in space after making those releases, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Jacksonville to franchise Amukamara at the $14.3 million figure as leverage to negotiate a longer-term deal. The Jags have no other notable free agents they should try to retain, as both Luke Joeckel and Jonathan Cyprien were highly disappointing during their time in Jacksonville.
3. Upgrade the offensive line. Doug Marrone saw Jacksonville’s offensive line struggle firsthand as their positional coach, and now that he has been given the head job, it seems extremely likely he’ll target the line for improvements. If you’re wondering whether it’s a bad thing that Marrone didn’t really seem to develop the team’s young offensive linemen (or their veterans) and still got promoted to the head-coaching gig anyway, well, you’re not alone.
Jacksonville already made a move by essentially swapping Thomas for Branden Albert, which will give them a solid short-term left tackle for the first time since Eugene Monroe was on the roster. It’s not the only addition they’ll want to make. The Jags could benefit from a deep free-agent class at guard by targeting a guy like Warford or Zeitler to fill in at left guard for Joeckel. 2015 third-rounder A.J. Cann hasn’t been much better as a starter, so the Jags could plausibly replace both of their guards this offseason.
4. Re-sign Allen Robinson and Telvin Smith. Outside of Ramsey, Dave Caldwell’s two top draft picks both came in the middle rounds of 2014. Like Hopkins in Houston, Robinson had a frustrating 2016 season driven by poor quarterback play, but it’s impossible to doubt the former Penn State star’s talent. Indeed, most of what was perceived to be a Blake Bortles breakout in 2015 was magic from Robinson. The frustrating 2016 may drive Robinson’s price down a bit, but they didn’t do themselves any favors by signing Allen Hurns to an extension two years before he would have been an unrestricted free agent without getting much of a discount. Hurns might now be their third-best wideout with Marqise Lee showing signs of life last season.
Prince Amukamara rebuilt his value with a productive 2016, and the Jags should keep him around. AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File
The Jags will have little trouble finding the money for Robinson, and they need to shell out for Smith, who is one of the most underrated linebackers in football. Few weakside ‘backers have his range, as Smith tied for the league with 11 tackles for loss against the run last year. The closest comp for Smith is Tampa’s Lavonte David, who got $29.8 million over the first three years of his extension with the Bucs. Smith will be in the same range for Jacksonville.
5. Find a starting tight end. With Thomas gone, the leading tight end on the roster is Marcedes Lewis, who has seemingly been in a Jaguars uniform since the last time Tom Coughlin was involved with the organization. The Jags were right to move on from Thomas after a pair of frustrating seasons, but they’re left with a gaping hole at tight end in a season where there aren’t many useful tight ends on the market.
Caldwell could try to outbid the market for Martellus Bennett, who seemed to enjoy his lone season with Coughlin in New York (and vice versa), but the Jaguars may be hesitant to give another tight end a deal approaching $9 million per year after Thomas flamed out. They could head to the middle of the market and target somebody like Doyle or Levine Toilolo, but I wonder if there are better options. Maybe they try to pry somebody like Maxx Williams away from the Ravens halfway through his rookie deal for a late-round pick. The most plausible answer would be the Jags addressing the position in the draft, perhaps as early as Round 2.
1. Pick up Taylor Lewan’s fifth-year option. The Michigan product has matured into one of the best tackles in football. He’ll be in line for an enormous raise soon, but for now, the Titans can lock him in for 2018.
2. Go after a cornerback. The biggest weakness the Titans exhibited during their surprising 2016 campaign came at corner, where Perrish Cox was one of the worst regulars in football before being released at midseason. Jason McCourty also had a disappointing season after returning from an injury-hit 2015, although teams had a field day throwing away from Tennessee’s nominal No. 1 corner.
With $67.6 million in cap room, the Titans don’t have to cut McCourty, and they can afford to go after one of the better cornerbacks on the market, if they’re so inclined. Trumaine Johnson? Stephon Gilmore? If anything, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tennessee target Logan Ryan, given that Titans general manager Jon Robinson was the director of college scouting for the Patriots when they drafted Ryan in 2013.
3. Sign Martellus Bennett. Robinson wasn’t around when the Patriots acquired Bennett last year, but the best tight end on the market makes sense for the Titans. Tennessee already has a very capable No. 1 at the position in Delanie Walker, but the former 49ers backup will turn 33 before the upcoming campaign. The Titans also lined up with two or more tight ends on a league-high 409 snaps last season, so coach Mike Mularkey wouldn’t have many concerns about putting Bennett and Walker on the field together.
After a strong year in New England, Martellus Bennett will be looking to get paid. Tennessee should make an offer. Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
5. Add a guard to compete with Quinton Spain and Josh Kline. Tennessee lost the guy who was supposed to be its best guard when Chance Warmack went down after two games with a torn tendon in his hand, but it didn’t seem to matter much. The oft-frustrating Warmack was hardly missed, as the unheralded duo of Spain (a 2015 undrafted free agent) and Kline (who was signed off waivers from the Patriots in September) held their own as part of an excellent Tennessee rushing attack.
Spain and Kline deserve a chance to hold onto their jobs, but there’s nothing wrong with going after a guard to rotate with them. It would make sense for Robinson to look at an interior lineman during the middle rounds of the draft. Warmack, who failed to live up to expectations after being drafted in the first round, is likely to leave town.
