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NFL

Berry: 100 facts for the 2020 fantasy football season

Which player do you want?

“Running Back A” is an absolute fantasy football scoring machine, the second-best RB in the NFL in rushes per touchdown. His 12 rushing touchdowns in his final nine games last season led the NFL during that span and he was second in rushing yards, scoring more fantasy points than even Christian McCaffrey. A big play waiting to happen, he led all RBs (minimum 100 carries) in percentage of rushes that went for five-plus yards and 10-plus yards last season. He ran behind a great offensive line (he was second among RBs in yards per rush before first contact) and he was tough to bring down when you finally got to him (he was top 10 among RBs in yards per rush after first contact). He’s the starting running back on one of the best running teams in the NFL, a squad that is top five in the league in both rush percentage and red zone rush percentage, so it’s exciting to think about how much he’ll get fed since he was fourth best among RBs (minimum 100 carries) in fantasy points per touch. Running Back A is sure to be a centerpiece on many fantasy championship teams this season.

2 Related

“Running Back B” was third on his own team last season in red zone carries and is more of a career special-teams player than fantasy asset at running back. At best a situational player, he had only three games last season with more than 12 touches, and in 16 games last season he had just six goal-to-go carries (compared to 21 for the other running backs on his team), showing that his team had a lack of faith in him near the goal line. Speaking of those other running backs, our guy is on the wrong side of a committee situation, as there were two other RBs on his team last season who averaged more carries per game and three other running backs on his team who had more receptions. And that’s despite the fact that Running Back B was the only RB on his team to play all 16 games last season. He was nonexistent in the passing game (just 1.4 targets per game, and he had zero or one catch in 12 of 16 games) and is now 28 years old. His own team wouldn’t even commit to him on the field last season, so why should you?

So, which player do you want?

Understand that every single stat I mentioned above about each player is 100% true.

Which player do you want?

They are going in the same round in ESPN leagues.

Which player do you want?

You just read almost 400 words about two players, so I would expect you to have at least a leaning toward one of these guys over the other.

So the draft clock is winding down … gotta make a call … five seconds left. Which player do you want?

Before you answer, you should know one more fact about each guy.

Running Back A’s name is

Raheem Mostert’s breakout season was especially surprising, because he had just 47 total touches in his first four NFL seasons. Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire

And once armed with my stats, I can shape the narrative to fit whatever I want to convince you of. If I’m pro-Raheem Mostert this year, I focus on the run-heavy tendencies of the Niners, I use his legitimately impressive yards-per-carry and yards-after-contact numbers, and I sneakily use his stats from the final nine games, not mentioning that those numbers include his three postseason games, when most of his “competition” (like CMC) wasn’t playing. I ignore Kyle Shanahan’s multi-RB approach and Mostert’s complete lack of usage in the passing game.

Of course, if I’m down on Mostert, I take his full-season numbers, not the numbers starting with the Week 13 Ravens game, which was his first “breakout” game and which is a more accurate time frame for his expected usage this year. I lean heavily into his lack of passing-game work while not mentioning his scoring prowess, I highlight his age without disclosing he has fewer than 250 regular-season carries for his CAREER. Or that the Niners shipped

Daniel Jones accounted for four or more TDs in one-third of his 12 starts as a rookie last season. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

28. Jay Gruden was the offensive coordinator of the

Austin Ekeler scored the fourth-most PPR fantasy points among RBs last season, despite receiving double-digit carries just once in the final 12 games. Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire

45. Last season, in Weeks 1-9,

Embracing the fun spirit of fantasy sports, ESPN senior fantasy analyst Matthew Berry and his unconventional cast of characters aim to make fantasy football players smarter and help them win their leagues. Watch the latest episode

57. Last season, Le’Veon Bell was eighth in touches per game.

58. He had just four total touchdowns on 311 touches.

59. The other eight RBs with at least 300 touches last season averaged 11.5 touchdowns.

60. This offseason, the Jets signed center Connor McGovern from Denver and tackle George Fant from Seattle, and drafted 6-foot-7, 364-pound 2019 Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner Mekhi Becton.

60a. As of this writing, Le’Veon Bell’s ADP on ESPN is fifth round.

61. In the 64 regular-season games Doug Pederson has been the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, there have been only six instances in which a RB got at least 20 carries.

62. Those six instances came from four different running backs.

63. In the first seven games last season — when Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Nelson Agholor and (sometimes) DeSean Jackson were healthy — Miles Sanders averaged 11 touches per game.

64. In that seven-game stretch, only one time did an Eagles RB get more than 15 touches in a game.

65. From Week 14 on last season, Boston Scott averaged 15 touches per game.

66. He was the seventh-best running back in fantasy during that stretch.

67. Last season, there were only five RBs (minimum 100 carries) who had a higher percentage of carries that went 10-plus yards than … Jordan Howard.

68. Through the first 10 weeks of last season, Howard was the 20th-best RB in fantasy.

69. Since Howard entered the NFL in 2016, he is third in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns.

69a. In this year’s NFL draft, the Miami Dolphins drafted three offensive linemen in the first four rounds.

69b. As of this writing, Howard’s ADP on ESPN is RB38.

70. Over the past three years, when Stefon Diggs was off the field, Adam Thielen was targeted on 25.1% of his routes.

71. During that same stretch, Thielen has scored on 11% of his receptions with Diggs off the field (compared with 7% with Diggs on the field).

72. For his career, Thielen is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game when seeing at least nine targets.

72a. The only receiver last season to average more than 22.8 points was Michael Thomas, with 23.4.

72b. Diggs is now on the Buffalo Bills.

73. Last season, Brandin Cooks had 72 targets in 14 games for the Los Angeles Rams.

73a. Cooks is now on the Texans.

74. The only player over the past two seasons with 150-plus catches AND a drop rate of less than 1% is … current Los Angeles Ram Robert Woods.

75. Last season, Woods was ninth among all WRs in targets per game and yards per game.

76. He was second in routes run per game.

76a. He was the 12th-best WR in fantasy on a points-per-game basis.

76b. As of this writing, Woods’ ADP on ESPN is WR17.

77. Over the past two seasons, Woods is the eighth-best WR in fantasy.

78. Among the players Woods has more total fantasy points than during that span are: Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson II, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore and Adam Thielen.

78a. As of this writing, all of the players listed above are being drafted ahead of Robert Woods.

78b. WTH, people.

78c. No, seriously. WTH.

Robert Woods has averaged 88 catches and 1,312 yards from scrimmage the past two seasons. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

79. Here are the 2019 per-game averages for two WRs:

WR A: 4.9 rec., 7.4 targets, 74.3 yds., 15.1 yds/rec., 15.1 YAC, 31 routes, 0.50 rec. TDs, 15.4 fantasy pts.

WR B: 4.7 rec., 8.1 targets, 79.1 yds., 16.8 yds/rec., 23.5 YAC, 35 routes, 0.43 rec. TDs, 15.2 fantasy pts.

80. Player A’s name is Amari Cooper.

80a. Player B’s name is

NFL

Patriots can't lose with incentive-laden deal for Cam Newton

Cam Newton’s one-year, incentive-laden contract with the New England Patriots is mostly a no-lose situation in a post-Tom Brady world. So why wouldn’t the Patriots take the plunge?

If Newton is healthy and performs at the high level he did when he was named NFL MVP and led the Carolina Panthers to Super Bowl 50, he could be the Patriots’ starting quarterback and put them back into the conversation as one of the AFC’s elite teams.

If his previously injured foot doesn’t respond well or his performance and fit in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ system don’t measure up, there’s limited financial pain for the team in quickly moving on.

So with Newton willing to accept what the Patriots have to offer — a low-cost chance to battle with 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham and 11-year veteran Brian Hoyer to be Brady’s replacement — it adds a stick of dynamite to what was already a compelling situation.

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The Patriots have been high on Stidham, while some on the club also have acknowledged there’s always a blind spot with a young signal-caller until he actually plays. So now they protect themselves more at the game’s most important position, increasing competition and seeing if Stidham rises up.

Meanwhile, Newton could have considered waiting for an injury somewhere in the NFL with more of a clear path to start. But his decision to come to New England on a prove-it type of deal reflects a desire to compete, which has to be appealing to coach Bill Belichick, who often says nothing is given and players ultimately earn their roles through their performance.

Belichick has always had respect for Newton as a competitor.

“When you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks, guys that are tough to handle, tackle, can throw, run, make good decisions — I mean, I would put Newton at the top the list,” Belichick said in 2017 prior to a game against the Panthers.

“Not saying that there aren’t a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say, of all the guys we play or have played recently in the last couple of years, he’s the hardest guy to deal with. He makes good decisions, he can run, he’s strong, he’s hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things, beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game down there in ’13, so I would put him at the top of the list. Not saying the other guys aren’t a problem, because they are, but he’s public enemy No. 1.”

Can Newton be that player in 2020 and also fit into the Patriots’ hard-driving culture?

His new teammates are intrigued to find out, with reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore tweeting two eyes as the news broke Sunday night.

Meanwhile, fellow Patriots cornerback Jason McCourty said on his “Double Coverage” podcast: “I’m excited. Bill always says it: ‘The goal for any good team is to have as many good players as possible.’ Cam Newton is a former MVP of this league, played in the Super Bowl, that caliber of a player. The better players we have in our locker room, the better we’re going to be able to go out there, perform as a team.”

Safety and longtime New England captain Devin McCourty responded with his take.

“I agree fully with you,” McCourty said. “When you add a guy like Cam Newton, it makes our quarterback room even better. We’ve already spoken about it before — the poise, and the jump and the leap you expect for Stiddy to make. I think it will be interesting in training camp and competing and all of that — that’s how we all get better. I would think adding him to the quarterback room with B. Hoyer, you have veterans in there, you have young guys in there, I think it will give us a really good chance to be good at that position.”

McCourty added one more thought: “It will be a fun year, if the year goes as expected and we have a season.”

NFL

Bugel, architect of the famed Hogs, dies at 80

Former Washington Redskins offensive line coach Joe Bugel, architect of the famed Hogs in the 1980s, has died, the team announced in a statement. He was 80.

No cause of death was given.

Bugel spent 32 years in the NFL but was largely known for his work in Washington, where he coached the Redskins’ offensive line from 1981 to 1989. He served as offensive coordinator and was an assistant head coach from 1983 to ’89.

Bugel left to serve as head coach of the Phoenix Cardinals from 1990 to 1993. But he returned to Washington in 2004 — when Joe Gibbs returned — and stayed until his retirement after the 2009 season.

The Redskins reached three Super Bowls and won two in the 1980s behind their offensive line. One of their offensive linemen during that stretch, guard Russ Grimm, is in the Hall of Fame, and another, tackle Joe Jacoby, was a finalist three times. Four of Bugel’s offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl a combined 10 times during the ’80s, led by Grimm and Jacoby’s four trips apiece, and the line helped pave the way for four 1,000-yard rushers.

Bugel started calling this group the Hogs in 1982. During a training camp practice, he referred them as “Hogs” when telling them to head to the blocking sled. The name stuck. Gibbs told them, “Once you establish a nickname, you’d better back it up.”

They did. The Hogs did commercials and posters, and their moniker inspired some Redskins fans to dress up as “Hogettes” during games and charity appearances. They became one of the most famous lines in NFL history.

Bugel once said, while coaching the Cardinals, that he would get recognized in airports by people shouting, “Hey, there’s the Hogs coach!”

“Joe had an incredible passion for the game of football,” Gibbs said in a statement. “He came to work every day with such great excitement and his players had tremendous respect for him. The strength of our coaching staff on both sides of the ball was a key reason we had so much success. Bugel was such a big part of that and his impact was felt not only by those Redskins’ teams, but truly across the entire League. I will miss his friendship and I will always cherish our late-night arguments putting together the game plan each week.”

Bugel coached the Cardinals for four years. He then served as the Oakland Raiders’ assistant head coach/offense for two years before becoming head coach for one season in 1997. He coached the San Diego Chargers’ line for four seasons, leaving after the 2001 campaign, and was out of coaching until Gibbs returned in Washington.

“I am absolutely devastated by the news of Joe’s passing,” Redskins owner Dan Snyder said in a statement. “Joe was a larger than life figure and a true legend of his profession. He exemplified what it meant to be a Redskin with his character and ability to connect with his players along with a work ethic that was unmatched.”

NFL

Better, worse or the same: Stacking up NFL teams' progress in 2020

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