METAIRIE, La. — Andrus Peat might be the New Orleans Saints’ most high-profile free agent outside of their three quarterbacks this offseason.
But figuring out how the Saints and the rest of the NFL will value the two-time Pro Bowl left guard is one of their biggest mysteries heading into the start of free agency on March 18.
Peat, 26, seems like an obvious place for the Saints to save money this offseason, because they’re slammed against the salary cap (they have about $11 million in space) and because they have so much money and draft capital invested everywhere else on their offensive line. But the Saints could also wind up keeping Peat if he doesn’t generate enough interest on the open market.
Andrus Peat may be difficult for the Saints to re-sign considering their challenging salary-cap situation. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
The top 10 guards in the NFL make at least $10 million per year, but it remains to be seen if the league will value Peat in that category. The Saints, meanwhile, have less than $10 million in salary-cap space for now (though they have a handful of ways to create more space by releasing players or restructuring current deals).
The 6-foot-7, 316-pounder has waffled between overrated and underappreciated throughout his five-year career. He struggled a bit as a rookie, when the Saints drafted him with the 13th overall pick out of Stanford in 2015 and moved him from left tackle to right tackle to guard.
And he seemed to regress a bit in 2019, showing more inconsistency than usual — which made his second straight Pro Bowl selection as an alternate a bit of a surprise.
But in between, the versatile big man was better than many Saints fans gave him credit for from 2016-18. Peat’s greatest asset has been his ability to slide over and play left tackle when needed — which has been huge for the Saints, since their standout left tackle
Peat is at the very least a competent, experienced starter with the flexibility to play two positions. And at 26, he still has the potential to be even more than that. So there’s a good chance that a team with more money and more desperation to upgrade the offensive line will snatch him away.
If that happens, the Saints could turn to veteran backup Nick Easton, who proved more than capable while starting six games as an injury replacement for both Peat and right guard Larry Warford in 2019. Easton, 27, is due to make $5 million this season.
Or New Orleans could go even cheaper with some combination of third-year backup Will Clapp, free agency and the draft. And it’s not out of the question that they could consider upgrading the position instead — especially because Warford is heading into the final year of his contract.
The offensive line, in general, should be a priority for the Saints in the draft because they will eventually have to do some rebuilding alongside fourth-year right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and second-year center Erik McCoy. Armstead and Warford both turn 29 this summer.
Peat is one of 10 Saints starters/key contributors scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this month. We have broken down QBs Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater’s prospects at length. I also took a long look at New Orleans’ five key defensive free agents recently (safety Vonn Bell, cornerbacks Eli Apple and P.J. Williams, linebacker A.J. Klein and defensive tackle David Onyemata). The Saints’ other top unrestricted free agents are fullback Zach Line, who already announced his retirement, and receiver Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn could potentially come back because he shouldn’t cost very much and remains a good veteran presence in a young position group. But he turns 35 next month and his production has dropped off considerably over the past two years. So that’s a position the Saints must upgrade whether he stays or not.
It’s hard to find something to complain about when it comes to examining quarterback Joe Burrow’s prolific final year at LSU.
He slipped away from pocket pressure, set passing records and commandeered the Tigers to their first national championship since 2007. All of that culminated with Burrow ascending draft boards, where he is projected to go No. 1 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals.
However, nobody is perfect. And if one question about Burrow has lingered, it’s his arm strength. He didn’t need to throw at last week’s NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis to answer that question to the Bengals’ satisfaction.
“There’s multiple times where he throws a ball to the field — to the far sideline — where you go, ‘Yeah, that’s more than enough; that’s going to get you everything you need,'” Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said.
Callahan said he had “no reservations” about Burrow’s arm strength after watching every one of his passes in 2019, when Burrow set the Football Bowl Subdivision record with 60 touchdown passes in a season.
Early in the year, Callahan said Burrow threw a couple of shaky deep balls on which his arm strength was brought into question. But as the season progressed, Burrow put “most of those things to bed” as he excelled during LSU’s title run.
According to research from ESPN Stats & Information, Burrow had more passing yards than any FBS quarterback on attempts of 20 air yards or more. More importantly, he was second in completion percentage on such passes, trailing Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan (minimum of 300 attempts).
“What makes playing quarterback in the NFL so much different is that the anticipation and the accuracy are so much more important over the long haul than just pure strength,” Callahan said.
Recent history shows the Bengals haven’t let a lack of arm strength dissuade them from drafting a quarterback.
Cincinnati moved up in the fourth round to select North Carolina State’s Ryan Finley last year. Veteran starter Andy Dalton has a stronger arm than Finley, but that didn’t deter the Bengals from investing in the rookie. Finley started three games while the Bengals evaluated his long-term outlook, but he struggled, completing just 47.1% of his passes.
Bengals coach Zac Taylor said an NFL team rarely needs its quarterback to sling a 70-yard pass.
“You just want to make sure you can see on tape or in person guys who can make all the throws they are going to need to make,” Taylor said last week at the combine. “A lot of them are intermediate stuff. I feel confident, pretty much every quarterback we have watched in the draft has the necessary arm strength to play in the NFL.”
And this concern about Burrow isn’t new. When he threw at the Elite 11 Regionals in Columbus, Ohio, before his senior year at Athens High, his arm strength was one of the things he wanted to prove.
“A lot of people don’t think I have great arm strength, but I think I showed that pretty well today,” Burrow told reporters in June 2014, shortly after he committed to Ohio State.
Six years later, Burrow talked about the topic with a sense of self-realization. Because he can’t muscle throws into tight windows, Burrow has refined his timing and anticipation, two traits that helped him succeed in 2019 against SEC defenses.
“My physical traits are limited compared to some of the guys here [at the combine], right, and everyone can see it,” Burrow said last week. “So I’ve got to be smarter, I’ve got to prepare better and I’ve got to know what’s happening before it happens so I can play fast.”
More than arm strength, it’s everything Burrow mentioned that Taylor and Callahan are looking for. The totality of Burrow’s skill set could be what the Bengals need to become a relevant franchise again.
Since being taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been one of the most recognizable Detroit Lions.
Yet this offseason, there have been rumors the Lions might try to move on from their all-time leader in almost every significant passing category.
Most of those notions were unsubstantiated, and general manager Bob Quinn made clear a report they were shopping Stafford was “100 percent false.” But for the past two seasons, there have been questions about Stafford’s long-term future in Detroit.
Which is fair, considering he has had back injuries over those two campaigns. But it’s also not pragmatic, considering some of the mandates in place from the franchise’s ownership and a contract that would mean the Lions would spend more money to have him not be in Detroit this season than if he were on the team.
But to explain further why the Lions aren’t moving on from Stafford this year — and under what circumstances they might in the future — we’re here to help.
The Lions have won little with Stafford, so why keep him?
Yes, it’s true the Lions have yet to win a playoff game or a division title with Stafford, but that isn’t entirely the quarterback’s fault. While some of his seasons have been subpar, his offense has had a truly strong running game only once — in 2013, when Reggie Bush rushed for 1,006 yards.
Stafford also hasn’t been helped by questionable defenses in some of his better campaigns, including last season when he was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his back injury but was still 3-4-1 in his starts. Most of the issue came with a struggling defense, which has been another concern throughout large parts of Stafford’s career — except for 2014, when Stafford and the Lions had their best shot to be a real playoff contender but lost in the wild-card round to the Dallas Cowboys.
So many times throughout his career it has been proved that Stafford isn’t the problem. Combine that with how teams struggle to find quarterbacks in the league and getting rid of a proven signal-caller without a clear backup or succession plan makes little to no sense.
What about Stafford’s contract? That makes it harder to move him, right? What about after 2020?
Stafford’s contract would cost more for the Lions to trade him — $24.8 million — than for him to remain with the club in 2020. And it’s hard to see Detroit swallowing that massive cap charge for any player, let alone getting rid of one of their most productive players along with that amount. It’s one of the largest reasons a 2020 trade is a nonstarter on so many levels.
After 2020, though, moves are more plausible. He carries a $33 million cap hit in 2021, including $20 million in cash. His dead money of $16 million is more manageable for the club, and the cap savings of $17 million would make some sense as well. Of course, it’s not clear if a new collective bargaining agreement would scuttle things here.
Matthew Stafford’s history of back injuries creates some questions about his future. Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
Even so, it’s hard to see the Lions moving on from Stafford in 2021 unless one of a few things happen:
–He once again goes through an injury-plagued season.
–He doesn’t play well.
–If the Lions play so poorly that Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia are fired, leaving a new general manager/head coach combo to make a decision on Stafford. And in that scenario, they might opt for the complete rebuild, which could result in Stafford finding a new home by trade or release.
Why did the Stafford rumors start?
It’s a combination of the injuries, Detroit’s top-five draft pick and Alabama quarterback
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Quick-hit thoughts and notes around the New England Patriots and NFL:
1. Middle Tennessee visit creates a buzz: Four pictures of Patriots coach Bill Belichick working out Middle Tennessee defensive end/outside linebacker Tyshun Render on Monday spread quickly on social media. A rain-soaked Belichick putting a projected late-round draft pick through drills served up a reminder of his passion and attention to detail for the nitty-gritty parts of the job at age 67.
Rick Stockstill, who just completed his 15th season as MTSU coach, said Belichick’s visit benefited all involved.
“We didn’t make a big deal out of it, didn’t promote it, didn’t tell other players he was coming. I didn’t want it to turn into a circus, everyone coming out to see Coach Belichick. So it was kind of under the radar a little bit,” Stockstill said in a phone interview. “He was very gracious, talking to us, and with how he treated Tyshun, how he asked him questions, how he communicated with him.
67 years old. Entering his 46th NFL season. Chasing Don Shula for the all-time wins mark.
Bill Belichick, in the rain at Middle Tennessee State, grinding it out on the scouting trail.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) February 26, 2020
“When you think about, here’s arguably the best football coach ever in the NFL, and he’s on our campus, working out one of our players in the cold, pouring-down rain. It was a great experience just being able to shake his hand, talk to him a little bit, and watch how he evaluates players, and what he puts them through from a drill standpoint, and how he asked him questions watching film. It was a good learning experience for all of us.”
The workout came together quickly.
Belichick has a connection with MTSU quarterbacks coach Tony Franklin, and Stockstill said Belichick reached out to Franklin over the weekend about the possibility. Render was in Georgia at the time and hustled to make it back to campus in Murfreesboro, which is about 30 miles from where Belichick and his partner, Linda Holliday, have a residence in Franklin, Tennessee.
“To me, that day was a great symbolization of why Coach Belichick has been so successful,” said Stockstill, who in 23 seasons as an assistant worked on staffs under Lou Holtz, Steve Spurrier, Danny Ford, Tommy Bowden, Ken Hatfield, Larry Little and Tommy West. “He spent a little more than three hours here, between working him out and watching film. Here he is on a rainy, dreary, cold day [but] this is what you have to do — you have to work. He’s very meticulous, very detail-oriented.”
Stockstill also highlighted part of the projection that NFL teams will be making with Render, a non-combine invitee who graduated prior to his senior season.
“I think he has great growth potential. We don’t have a training table like the SEC schools or the Big Ten or the ACC, so our guys, it’s harder for us to gain weight compared to schools from bigger conferences,” he explained. “So, once he gets on a team, in a camp, and he’s eating four to five meals a day like they feed NFL players, I think he has a great frame to put on weight and improve his strength. He’s a guy that I think the NFL will evaluate in a couple different positions, whether he’s a defensive end with his hand on the ground, or a drop-outside linebacker playing on two feet. He’s a smart, intelligent football player.”
2. Film work with Belichick stands out to Render: When I reached out to Render about his experience with Belichick, he expressed initial reluctance to answer because he didn’t want to create a perception he was using the workout to generate publicity. He also is locked in on his upcoming pro day.
But he allowed that his time with Belichick was special to him.
“I would describe Monday as a day of reassurance. Being granted the opportunity to perform in front of arguably the best coach to ever stand on an NFL sideline was just a reminder to run my own race,” he said.
Asked what stood out to him, he said, “Our time in the film room. It was the questions [Belichick] asked while we were in there about my opponents.”
3. Two key unanswered questions remain with Brady, Patriots: There is a lot of smoke around free-agent-to-be Tom Brady, but from a pure bottom-line perspective, my viewpoint is that nothing has definitively changed on the two key questions regarding the quarterback’s future: How far financially is Belichick willing to go to retain him? And how motivated is Brady to return? While uncertainty with the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement might explain why there has been a delay in having pure contract talks, that shouldn’t stop the two from having a dialogue on factors that would help provide clarity on the second question. Belichick referred to Brady as an “iconic figure in the organization” on Jan. 5, and because of all Brady has given to the franchise, my opinion is that the football is in Belichick’s hands to approach Brady to spark that conversation in advance of the March 16 legal negotiating period with other teams. Brady, 42, deserves that respect. And I believe that will happen.
4. Nuggets from the combine: I did not attend this year’s NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, but from colleagues on the ground and observation, here were a few Patriots-specific things that stood out to me:
Networking and connecting with others from around the NFL, and those tied to the history of the game, is part of the proceedings. That can be in Belichick’s wheelhouse. Along those lines, picture this scene: Belichick, at the bar at the downtown Indianapolis J.W. Marriott on Thursday night, talking to the legendary Archie Manning and appearing to exchange phone numbers.
Patriots Hall of Famer Troy Brown seemingly taking his role on the coaching staff to a higher level, as part of meetings with prospects, specifically receivers.
Retiring offensive-line coach Dante Scarnecchia making the trip to help evaluate linemen, a reflection that he will still be involved from a consulting-type standpoint.
5. Did You Know: Middle Tennessee had three players on Super Bowl rosters this past season — 49ers receiver Richie James (2018 seventh round), Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward (undrafted, 2018) and Chiefs linebacker Darius Harris (undrafted, 2019). Belichick had also been on campus in 2018 for a workout with James.
play
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Stephen A. Smith sparks a heated debate on whether Tom Brady can surround himself with enough talent to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
6. Comments that resonated tied to Brady: The combine can put coaches and executives in a challenging spot mediawise because tampering rules don’t allow them to comment on players under contract with other teams, even those who are set to be free agents. So they have to choose their words carefully, and here are three sound bites from those with teams who could be interested in Brady:
Titans coach Mike Vrabel (when asked by Suzy Kolber on NFL Live about rumors linking the Titans to Brady): “I would say it’s just a unique situation, having played with Tom and having a relationship with Tom and his family. [My son] Carter texted me [about social media rumors] and said, ‘Is Gisele at MBA [Montgomery Bell Academy in Nashville]’ and I’m like, ‘No, Gisele is not at MBA.’ She wasn’t. I just think it’s unique that a head coach played with a quarterback that has an expiring contract that’s been in New England for 20 years.”
Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians: “Quarterback is the premier position, so you never thought you’d see a Brady and a [Drew] Brees, and all those guys names to be out there [as possible free agents]. And Drew’s not really out there. So what is door No. 2? You never know.” Arians reportedly later said Brady is the type of free agent, along with Philip Rivers, that he’d pick up the phone to speak with.
Raiders general manager Mike Mayock: “I’m surprised it took two questions to get to Derek [Carr], but thank you. I think everybody needs to understand at what level Derek Carr played last year — completed 70% of his passes, had almost a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, I think we were No. 11 in total yards, seventh in third-down conversions. We did a lot of really good things on offense. The disconnect was that we didn’t score a lot of points; you’re 11th in yards but 24th in points, there’s an issue. It’s defense. Special teams. It’s not scoring in the red zone. And it’s not scoring in goal-to-go. Derek Carr played at a high level. I’m very happy with Derek Carr. What I’ve told everybody I’ve been in touch with, from the day I took this job, we’re going to evaluate every position every year. And if we can get better, we will. Guys get tired of me saying that, but that’s really what I told [owner] Mark Davis before I took the job. That’s my mantra.”
7. Super Bowl hero Butler’s future in Tennessee: Could Malcolm Butler be a cut candidate after two seasons with the Titans? The possibility was broached by Albert Breer of SI.com, and ESPN.com Titans reporter Turron Davenport has noted why the organization might consider it: Butler is on the books with a $13.3 million cap charge in 2020, which could be too rich for his projected role, especially if the club attempts to re-sign Logan Ryan. If the Titans do move on, they would absorb a $6 million cap hit.
8. Top special-teamer Bethel recovering from shoulder surgery: In a reminder of the physical toll that football can take on players, Patriots core special-teamer Justin Bethel has had the course of his offseason altered by shoulder surgery, according to a source. Bethel recently made the point that he finds rehab workouts more challenging than regular workouts. With Bethel and perennial Pro Bowler Matthew Slater playing together for the second half of last season, the Patriots had arguably the most potent 1-2 gunner combination in the NFL.
9. Stidham checks in at Gillette: Last year at this time, quarterback Jarrett Stidham was working out in Indianapolis, impressing the Patriots to the point where they later selected him in the fourth round (No. 133). This year, Stidham took a break from his training regimen in California to return to town for the week, working out at Gillette Stadium. A related thought: One of the trickle-down effects of the Patriots hiring assistant coach Jedd Fisch to their offensive staff is the link with Stidham; one of the assets Fisch brings to New England is an extensive background working with young quarterbacks.
10. Bruschi’s entertaining tales from the past: I could listen to Patriots Hall of Fame linebacker Tedy Bruschi, who in his 11th season as an ESPN football analyst, talk football all day. So it was a treat to hear him reminisce on the “Pats from the Past” podcast on Patriots.com, such as telling the story of how then-Patriots coach Bill Parcells told him to hop into his Cadillac Eldorado after he had a good practice. Bruschi, who was a rookie that year in 1996, told the story of how Parcells informed him about the importance of managing his money (“I’ve seen more guys go down to the IRS; make sure things are in order”), which had him calling his agent that night to make sure he had an accountant. Bruschi also talked about how he thought Belichick would be the team’s head coach in 1997 based on the plane ride home from Super Bowl XXI and conversations he was having with players about the future. Fun stuff, as usual, from the Patriots great.
