Soccer

Bundesliga Matchday 32 betting preview: Redemption for Leverkusen, Hoffenheim

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The Bundesliga hasn’t been kind to us over the past two weeks, but for what it’s worth, I absolutely love the card on Matchday 32.

Midweek fixtures often have a bit of wildness to them, but I’m struggling to see a losing bet on the card for Tuesday or Wednesday. Here’s hoping I’m not just delusional.

Paderborn (+400) at Union Berlin (-155), Draw (+320)

In beating Koln on Saturday, Union all but secured their place in the Bundesliga next season, essentially negating the threat of relegation. We can thus expect a bit of a letdown from the Berlin outfit, which now has very little at stake over the final few matches.

The same can’t be said of Paderborn. Relegation is assured for the bottom-ranked club, but many of its players are playing for summer transfers in the hopes of staying in the Bundesliga. And manager Steffen Baumgart, who has been in charge of the club since 2017, will not let his side go down with a whimper.

Paderborn haven’t lost an away match since the resumption of play, drawing all three of their road fixtures while actually performing quite well. They were trounced by a motivated Bremen side on Saturday, but we can expect a bounce-back performance here; Union have yet to win at home since the restart, and they’ll likely enter this match lacking focus given the significance of Saturday’s victory. This has 0-0 or 1-1 written all over it.

Pick: Paderborn +0.75 (+105), Draw (+320)

Koln (+540) at Bayer Leverkusen (-220), Draw (+260)

Koln’s motivations are similar to those of Union. Alexander Wehrle’s side has been in a free fall since the season restart, and the club is likely desperate to simply put this campaign behind it. Koln have claimed just three points from six matches following the Bundesliga’s return – all through draws against bottom-six teams. They lost 4-2 and 3-1 in their two matches against clubs in the table’s top half.

That’s been a theme of the campaign for the Billy Goats, who have lost all four of their away matches against top-five sides by a combined score of 15-3. The timing couldn’t be much worse for a trip to BayArena, where Leverkusen have dominated clubs in the bottom half of the table this season.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for Peter Bosz’s side, either. Leverkusen are in the thick of the fight for a top-four finish and desperately need a strong end to the campaign to fend off Gladbach.

Pick: Leverkusen -1 (-135)

Hoffenheim (+150) at Augsburg (+170), Draw (+260)

Motivation has been a common theme in this article, but that’s to be expected late in the season. Augsburg essentially secured their top-flight status by beating Mainz on Sunday, alleviating the relegation concerns that had been their driving force down the stretch.

Hoffenheim, meanwhile, played far better against RB Leipzig than Friday’s scoreline suggested, peppering Peter Gulacsi’s goal with shots only to come away empty-handed. A Freiburg comeback against Wolfsburg kept Die Kraichgauer in sight of sixth place though, and they still have plenty to play for over these final few matches.

The visitors have been far better on the road than they have at home this season, and they’ll be boosted by the return of top scorer Andrej Kramaric to the starting lineup. Hoffenheim should be the decidedly more motivated side here, and the fresher club too after an extra two days off between matches. They’ve won four successive tilts at WWK Arena and are excellent value to make it five Wednesday. I’m doubling down here.

Pick: Hoffenheim PK (-115), Hoffenheim (+150)

Full card:

  • Wolfsburg +0.5 (-135)
  • Paderborn +0.75 (+105)
  • Union/Paderborn draw (+320)
  • Dortmund/Mainz over 3.5 (+105)
  • Leverkusen -1 (-135)
  • Hoffenheim PK (-115)
  • Hoffenheim (+150)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.