Bundesliga Matchday 27 betting preview: Unders everywhere
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We enjoyed a profitable return to Bundesliga action last weekend, and I don’t know about you, but I had a spectacular time sitting on the couch for 12 hours watching the first major European league to make a triumphant return.
I plan on doing that all over again this weekend, so we might as well win some more money while we’re at it.
Borussia Dortmund (-143) at Wolfsburg (+350), Draw (+300)
Betting under any number in a Dortmund match since Erling Haaland came aboard has been a surefire way to gutter your bankroll – the club has scored 31 goals in his nine Bundesliga appearances. However, 22 of those came in Haaland’s first five matches, and only nine have been scored in the four games since, which includes last weekend’s four-goal outburst against Schalke.
Wolfsburg represent a tougher test, as Dortmund will be on the road against one of the best defenses in the top flight, which has conceded just 13 times in 13 home matches this term. The hosts will make life difficult for the high-flying Dortmund attack, which should be in for a bit of a letdown following that massive derby win.
Don’t expect more than a goal – maybe two – from Dortmund, while Wolfsburg are unlikely to contribute much to the total. They’ve scored just 16 times in 13 home games, and they’ve failed to find the back of the net in each of their last six matches against BVB, last scoring against them in a 5-1 loss in September 2016. Dortmund have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches and are a good bet to record another here.
Pick: Under 3 (-113)
Hoffenheim (+110) at Paderborn (+210), Draw (+280)
Both of these sides were held goalless in the first weekend back and they’ll be looking to get off the mark on Saturday, but another low-scoring affair feels likely. Paderborn have scored just 17 goals in their 13 home matches this season, while Hoffenheim are one of the lowest-scoring clubs away from home, recording just 16 goals and conceding only 12 in their 12 road fixtures.
Paderborn have conceded nine goals in seven home matches against clubs outside the top eight while scoring eight. They will be hard-pressed to add to that total against a Hoffenheim defense that’s allowed just three goals in its last five away matches, keeping clean sheets against both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen.
Paderborn have also never scored against Hoffenheim in five all-time league meetings, with those fixtures producing seven total goals. Both clubs were misfiring in their first game back from the break, and I’d expect much of the same here. This total is far too high.
Pick: Under 3 (-110)
Augsburg (+275) at Schalke (-105), Draw (+250)
There was little to like about Schalke’s performance against Dortmund last weekend. They’ll be looking to bounce back defensively here and should find more success. Excluding matches against Bayern and RB Leipzig, Schalke have conceded 10 goals in 11 home matches.
Conversely, Augsburg have scored just 12 goals in 13 away fixtures, failing to find the back of the net in each of their last four. Of those 12 goals, six have come against Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen – the clubs with the two worst home defensive records in the Bundesliga this season.
Don’t expect a whole lot from Schalke’s attack, while defensively, they should rebound from the four-goal beating suffered at the hands of Dortmund. This fixture ended 0-0 last season and a similar result can be expected here.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-105)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
