Betting buzz: Chiefs' cover problem might not matter in playoffs
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Jan. 18: Kansas City Chiefs’ cover problem might not matter in playoffs
Doug Greenberg: For over half of the 2024 regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs did not look like the back-to-back Super Bowl champion juggernauts everyone expected them to be: The Chiefs were winning almost every game but weren’t doing so in convincing fashion.
From Weeks 1 through 14, Kansas City went 4-9 against the spread, which included an ATS losing streak of seven games from Weeks 8 through 14. The team’s eight outright victories without covering the spread tied for the most in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a straight-up winning record (35-24) in games where his team does not cover (minimum five games); just behind him is the great Roger Staubach (32-33).
The Chiefs are nine-point favorites against the visiting Houston Texans to kick off the NFL divisional round, a fascinating number given that KC has not covered a spread this large all season: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU but 0-7 ATS when laying at least six points this season, the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.
And yet, despite all the ATS inadequacy from the regular season, Kansas City has been gaining steam in the betting markets, as the game opened at a consensus Chiefs -7.5, but by Saturday morning, all major sportsbooks had come up to at least -8.5, with ESPN BET getting up to -9.5.
The sportsbook reported 68.2% of money backing KC’s spread compared to 57.3% of the tickets, with other major books similarly reporting positive handle splits supporting the Chiefs. FanDuel’s trading team says that the early action had been “surprisingly” more split than expected, but the book will still “be cheering for the Texans.”
There’s some logic behind the money. Besides Kansas City (7-10), there was only one other playoff team that had a losing ATS record in the regular season — the Texans, who also went 7-10 against the number.
The Chiefs’ championship pedigree is also likely playing a role in attracting big money. Dating back to 2022, KC has covered the spread in six straight playoff games, tied for the fifth-longest such streak in the Super Bowl era. The 2022 team that won it all was similarly poor ATS in the regular season.
Mahomes always seems to step up his game in the postseason, as his 13-5 ATS record is the third-best among quarterbacks with at least 10 playoff starts since 1966; only Jim Plunkett (8-2) and Eli Manning (9-3) have been better.
Travis Kelce also elevates come January, posting higher receiving yards per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season every year since 2020. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in 13 straight playoff games, and his number for Saturday is set at 49.5 (juiced to -135) on ESPN BET, his lowest in any playoff game in that span.
Essentially, even though the Chiefs garnered an underperforming reputation throughout the regular season, the betting public is ready to back them in full force now that their playoff run has arrived.
“It’s the same old song and dance for the NFL,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said via email. “The sportsbook needs the underdogs to cover and is hoping for one of the dogs to win outright to break up parlays.”
The other juggernaut
At ESPN BET, the Chiefs’ moneyline represents the second-most selected bet in parlays, behind the Detroit Lions’ moneyline.
On Saturday night, Detroit begins its quest to bring home the franchise’s elusive first Super Bowl with a showdown against the red-hot Washington Commanders. As of Saturday morning, the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at ESPN BET and have been getting plenty of support from the betting public market-wide.
Between the explosive offenses and Detroit’s banged-up defense, sportsbooks and bettors alike are expecting fireworks, as the game’s 55.5-point over/under — up from 54.5 at open — is the highest total in any playoff game since Super Bowl LV (2020) between the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It’s nothing new for this iteration of the Lions, who have played in the five highest-total games in the NFL this season, including Saturday’s contest; the previous four games have seen an even split in overs vs. unders at 2-2.
Jan. 14: Bettors fade Ohio State as CFP title game spread moves toward Notre Dame
David Purdum: The line on the College Football Playoff National Championship game dropped early this week, with sportsbooks reporting sharp money on underdog David Purdum: Only three NFL playoff games in the Super Bowl era closed with a line of pick ’em in ESPN’s database. Next week’s divisional round game in Buffalo has a chance to be the fourth.
