Berry: 100 facts for the 2020 fantasy football season
Which player do you want?
“Running Back A” is an absolute fantasy football scoring machine, the second-best RB in the NFL in rushes per touchdown. His 12 rushing touchdowns in his final nine games last season led the NFL during that span and he was second in rushing yards, scoring more fantasy points than even Christian McCaffrey. A big play waiting to happen, he led all RBs (minimum 100 carries) in percentage of rushes that went for five-plus yards and 10-plus yards last season. He ran behind a great offensive line (he was second among RBs in yards per rush before first contact) and he was tough to bring down when you finally got to him (he was top 10 among RBs in yards per rush after first contact). He’s the starting running back on one of the best running teams in the NFL, a squad that is top five in the league in both rush percentage and red zone rush percentage, so it’s exciting to think about how much he’ll get fed since he was fourth best among RBs (minimum 100 carries) in fantasy points per touch. Running Back A is sure to be a centerpiece on many fantasy championship teams this season.
2 Related
“Running Back B” was third on his own team last season in red zone carries and is more of a career special-teams player than fantasy asset at running back. At best a situational player, he had only three games last season with more than 12 touches, and in 16 games last season he had just six goal-to-go carries (compared to 21 for the other running backs on his team), showing that his team had a lack of faith in him near the goal line. Speaking of those other running backs, our guy is on the wrong side of a committee situation, as there were two other RBs on his team last season who averaged more carries per game and three other running backs on his team who had more receptions. And that’s despite the fact that Running Back B was the only RB on his team to play all 16 games last season. He was nonexistent in the passing game (just 1.4 targets per game, and he had zero or one catch in 12 of 16 games) and is now 28 years old. His own team wouldn’t even commit to him on the field last season, so why should you?
So, which player do you want?
Understand that every single stat I mentioned above about each player is 100% true.
Which player do you want?
They are going in the same round in ESPN leagues.
Which player do you want?
You just read almost 400 words about two players, so I would expect you to have at least a leaning toward one of these guys over the other.
So the draft clock is winding down … gotta make a call … five seconds left. Which player do you want?
Before you answer, you should know one more fact about each guy.
Running Back A’s name is And once armed with my stats, I can shape the narrative to fit whatever I want to convince you of. If I’m pro-Raheem Mostert this year, I focus on the run-heavy tendencies of the Niners, I use his legitimately impressive yards-per-carry and yards-after-contact numbers, and I sneakily use his stats from the final nine games, not mentioning that those numbers include his three postseason games, when most of his “competition” (like CMC) wasn’t playing. I ignore Kyle Shanahan’s multi-RB approach and Mostert’s complete lack of usage in the passing game. Of course, if I’m down on Mostert, I take his full-season numbers, not the numbers starting with the Week 13 Ravens game, which was his first “breakout” game and which is a more accurate time frame for his expected usage this year. I lean heavily into his lack of passing-game work while not mentioning his scoring prowess, I highlight his age without disclosing he has fewer than 250 regular-season carries for his CAREER. Or that the Niners shipped 28. Jay Gruden was the offensive coordinator of the 45. Last season, in Weeks 1-9, Embracing the fun spirit of fantasy sports, ESPN senior fantasy analyst Matthew Berry and his unconventional cast of characters aim to make fantasy football players smarter and help them win their leagues. Watch the latest episode 57. Last season, Le’Veon Bell was eighth in touches per game. 58. He had just four total touchdowns on 311 touches. 59. The other eight RBs with at least 300 touches last season averaged 11.5 touchdowns. 60. This offseason, the Jets signed center Connor McGovern from Denver and tackle George Fant from Seattle, and drafted 6-foot-7, 364-pound 2019 Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner Mekhi Becton. 60a. As of this writing, Le’Veon Bell’s ADP on ESPN is fifth round. 61. In the 64 regular-season games Doug Pederson has been the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, there have been only six instances in which a RB got at least 20 carries. 62. Those six instances came from four different running backs. 63. In the first seven games last season — when Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Nelson Agholor and (sometimes) DeSean Jackson were healthy — Miles Sanders averaged 11 touches per game. 64. In that seven-game stretch, only one time did an Eagles RB get more than 15 touches in a game. 65. From Week 14 on last season, Boston Scott averaged 15 touches per game. 66. He was the seventh-best running back in fantasy during that stretch. 67. Last season, there were only five RBs (minimum 100 carries) who had a higher percentage of carries that went 10-plus yards than … Jordan Howard. 68. Through the first 10 weeks of last season, Howard was the 20th-best RB in fantasy. 69. Since Howard entered the NFL in 2016, he is third in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns. 69a. In this year’s NFL draft, the Miami Dolphins drafted three offensive linemen in the first four rounds. 69b. As of this writing, Howard’s ADP on ESPN is RB38. 70. Over the past three years, when Stefon Diggs was off the field, Adam Thielen was targeted on 25.1% of his routes. 71. During that same stretch, Thielen has scored on 11% of his receptions with Diggs off the field (compared with 7% with Diggs on the field). 72. For his career, Thielen is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game when seeing at least nine targets. 72a. The only receiver last season to average more than 22.8 points was Michael Thomas, with 23.4. 72b. Diggs is now on the Buffalo Bills. 73. Last season, Brandin Cooks had 72 targets in 14 games for the Los Angeles Rams. 73a. Cooks is now on the Texans. 74. The only player over the past two seasons with 150-plus catches AND a drop rate of less than 1% is … current Los Angeles Ram Robert Woods. 75. Last season, Woods was ninth among all WRs in targets per game and yards per game. 76. He was second in routes run per game. 76a. He was the 12th-best WR in fantasy on a points-per-game basis. 76b. As of this writing, Woods’ ADP on ESPN is WR17. 77. Over the past two seasons, Woods is the eighth-best WR in fantasy. 78. Among the players Woods has more total fantasy points than during that span are: Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson II, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore and Adam Thielen. 78a. As of this writing, all of the players listed above are being drafted ahead of Robert Woods. 78b. WTH, people. 78c. No, seriously. WTH. 79. Here are the 2019 per-game averages for two WRs: WR A: 4.9 rec., 7.4 targets, 74.3 yds., 15.1 yds/rec., 15.1 YAC, 31 routes, 0.50 rec. TDs, 15.4 fantasy pts. WR B: 4.7 rec., 8.1 targets, 79.1 yds., 16.8 yds/rec., 23.5 YAC, 35 routes, 0.43 rec. TDs, 15.2 fantasy pts. 80. Player A’s name is Amari Cooper.
