Draft or pass? Prescott, Henry, Kelce and six more veterans aged 30 or older
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Daniel Dopp, ESPN
Few can elude Father Time, especially in fantasy football. Every year, without fail, there are stars who see a big drop in production after years of sustained dominance. Julio Jones averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game during his first decade in the league. Julio has played three more seasons since then (ages 31-34) averaging 8.0, 7.0 and 3.3 points per game. It’s not a knock on Julio — or any other player who sees a substantial drop in productivity due to age; that’s just part of the game. Our goal is to pinpoint which superstars on the wrong side of 30 are likely to continue to provide quality fantasy stats over the 2024 season, while hopefully avoiding those on the precipice of a fantasy drop-off.
All ages as of Week 1
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (Age: 31)
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Quarterbacks age differently than the athletes at other positions, so Dak being 31 doesn’t bother me here. Dak has averaged over 20 fantasy points in four of his past five campaigns, and the connection with CeeDee Lamb is as strong as it has ever been. The running game in Dallas isn’t what it used to be, with Tony Pollard out of town and Ezekiel Elliott (turns 29 in July) returning to lead the backfield. This should be a pass-heavy offense once again with plenty of opportunities for Prescott to thrive.
Draft advice: He’s a solid QB1 to add in the later rounds.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (30)
Henry’s Tennessee résumé speaks for itself. He has been the focal point of their offense since taking the starter’s reins from DeMarco Murray in 2018. From 2019 through 2022, Henry finished top four in fantasy points per game (in 2021 he missed eight games with a broken foot) every season. Last year, Henry came down to earth as the Titans’ offense struggled, finishing 28th in total yards per game and 26th in points per game. Now in Baltimore, Henry joins an offense that ranked first in rushing yards per game, second in points per game and sixth in total yards per game. If he could score 12 touchdowns in that abysmal 2023 Titans offense, sign me up for what he can do as the lead back with the Ravens, regardless of his age.
Draft advice: Draft Henry as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 in Rounds 2-3.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (103, but he’s really 32)
I was shocked at what Mostert did in 2023. It’s the only time in his career that he’s ever clocked 200 carries, over 1,000 yards rushing or double-digit touchdowns. With De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright as the future of the backfield, don’t expect anything close to what Mostert did last season.
Draft advice: Why draft Mostert when you can draft Zack Moss instead?
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (30)
It should be illegal to be 30 years old and run as fast as Hill does, but since it’s not, he’s going to keep exploiting defenses. Hill is the only 30-year-old who is a surefire bet to come off the board in the first round of your fantasy draft after he averaged better than 23 fantasy points per game last season, which is an absurd number for a wide receiver. He finished with 119 catches for 1,799 yards and 12 touchdowns, so even if he doesn’t quite repeat the performance, Tyreek should defy his age-30 season and continue to be a top-five talent at the position.
Draft advice: Take him in the first round as your WR1. Congrats.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31)
Evans is the model of consistency. Since entering the league in 2014, he has finished every single season with at least 67 receptions and 1,001 yards receiving. That’s an absurdly high floor to maintain for 10 straight seasons. Speaking of floor, Evans has finished top 10 at his position four times in his career but has never finished outside the top 25 wide receivers. In 2023, he found the end zone on 13 occasions, his third time in four seasons seeing double-digit touchdown production. Given his size (6-foot-5, 231 pounds — you can’t teach that) and the way this offense still runs through Big Mike Evans, you should feel safe grabbing him as a starting receiver.
Draft advice: Evans will be a solid WR2 that you can draft in Rounds 3-4.
Season
PPG
2018
16.2
2019
15.9
2020
15.6
2021
14.1
2022
13.4
2023
12.7
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From Weeks 1 through 9, Diggs was WR3 in fantasy, averaging 21.7 PPG. From Weeks 10-18, Diggs was WR44 averaging 9.8 PPG. How much of that was Diggs and how much of that was the situation? We may never know the full story of his second-half collapse, but we do know he’ll be catching passes from loves his young duo. I don’t dislike Diggs, nor do I think he’s fallen off a cliff from a talent level, but in a new situation, with all the talent around him competing for targets, his ADP is too rich.
Draft advice: Diggs is a mid to low-end WR2 with an increased potential for boom/bust weeks. To be honest, I mostly pass on him in our mock drafts because he never falls far enough to entice me.
2 Related
From Weeks 1 through 9, Diggs was WR3 in fantasy, averaging 21.7 PPG. From Weeks 10-18, Diggs was WR44 averaging 9.8 PPG. How much of that was Diggs and how much of that was the situation? We may never know the full story of his second-half collapse, but we do know he’ll be catching passes from loves his young duo. I don’t dislike Diggs, nor do I think he’s fallen off a cliff from a talent level, but in a new situation, with all the talent around him competing for targets, his ADP is too rich.
Draft advice: Diggs is a mid to low-end WR2 with an increased potential for boom/bust weeks. To be honest, I mostly pass on him in our mock drafts because he never falls far enough to entice me.
