Soccer

Bundesliga Matchday 30 betting preview: Augsburg strengthen survival bid

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That’s more like it.

We took home a nice profit over the weekend, finishing with a 4-1.5-0.5 record. Let’s keep the good times rolling into Matchday 30.

Borussia Monchengladbach (-135) at Freiburg (+325), Draw (+290)

It hasn’t been the smoothest restart for Freiburg, a club that remains winless in four matches since the break. They’ve lost 1-0 in their two matches at Schwarzwald-Stadion and have now lost five of their last seven on home soil after starting the season 4-2-1.

Gladbach got back on track last weekend in a 4-1 drubbing of Union Berlin after claiming just one point from their previous two matches. They’ve got top-four ambitions, making every point crucial with just five games remaining. However, they’ve won just three of their last nine matches away from home – all against clubs in the bottom half of the table.

Their free-flowing attack will run into trouble against a Freiburg side that is very difficult to break down under Christian Streich. Gladbach’s last win in Freiburg came in the 2. Bundesliga in 2007. Since then, they’ve lost eight of their nine visits there – one draw – as well as each of their last three trips to Schwarzwald-Stadion.

Pick: Freiburg +0.5 (+105)

Hoffenheim (+145) at Fortuna Dusseldorf (+170), Draw (+255)

This is a huge match for both clubs with Hoffenheim pushing for a Europa League berth and Fortuna desperately trying to stave off relegation. Three points would be massive for either side, which should lead to a tense, cagey affair with both clubs adopting a bit of extra caution to their approach.

That plays right into both of these sides. In their last eight home matches against clubs outside the top five, Fortuna have allowed just seven goals; as a whole this season, they’ve scored just 15 goals in 14 home matches. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have perfected the art of defense on the road, allowing just 13 goals in their 14 away matches this season.

In what should be a tightly contested match between a pair of disciplined clubs, scoring chances – and thus goals – will be difficult to come by.

Pick: Under 2.5, 3 (+102)

Koln (+145) at Augsburg (+170), Draw (+245)

Expect plenty of fireworks when these sides meet Sunday at WWK Arena. Augsburg’s 14 home matches this season have seen a staggering total of 48 goals, while Koln’s 14 away fixtures have produced an even more remarkable 52. The visitors have the talent up front to bag a goal or two, but are an absolute mess defensively. In four games since the restart, Koln have conceded 11 goals, scoring seven.

Both of these sides are entrenched in the bottom half of the table, but relegation is very unlikely for Koln, leaving them with little to play for over the final five matches. The same isn’t true of Augsburg, who trail Sunday’s opponents by four points and are just six up on the bottom three.

Look for the hosts to play with a real sense of urgency here as they aim to stave off the drop, and there’s a lot to like about their chances in this match. Koln are all over the place at the back and ripe for the picking as Augsburg are in search of a third successive victory over them at WWK Arena, and look to improve to 5-2-0 at home to clubs in the bottom eight this season.

Pick: Augsburg (+170); over 2.5, 3 (+100)

Full card:

  • Freiburg +0.5 (+105)
  • Eintracht/Mainz over 3 (-105)
  • Fortuna/Hoffenheim under 2.5, 3 (+102)
  • Bremen/Wolfsburg over 2.5 (-103)
  • Augsburg (+170)
  • Augsburg/Koln over 2.5, 3 (+100)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.