La Liga title odds: Two horse race in Spain

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Leagues across Europe are being given the green light to return, with Spain’s La Liga set to restart on June 11 with Sevilla hosting Real Betis.

Barcelona’s first match back will be on June 13, with Real Madrid returning a day later, as the two clubs are set to reignite their title race that was put on hold due to the pandemic.

When the season was suspended, Barcelona held a two-point lead over title challengers Real Madrid with 11 matches remaining, and oddmakers have made them small favorites to maintain their lead through the end of the campaign and win a third successive La Liga title.

The fixture lists

Before we dive into each club’s title credentials, let’s map out their remaining schedules over the final 11 Matchdays.

On the surface, Barcelona appear to have a slight edge here, with just four of their remaining matches coming against clubs in the top half of the table, while Real Madrid have six. The Blaugrana also still have the benefit of facing each of the bottom-four clubs in the table – as well as six of the bottom seven. However, Real Madrid hold a slight advantage with six of their remaining 11 matches coming on home soil, while Barcelona have five.

Will Barcelona slip up?

Quique Setien’s side has the luxury of returning to a pair of relatively straightforward matches, as they first visit a Mallorca side they have beaten on six successive occasions, before hosting Leganes, whom they have beaten all four times at Camp Nou.

In fact, Barcelona have been close to untouchable all season at Camp Nou, posting a 13-1-0 record at home this campaign. Their toughest remaining test at the venue is a date with Atletico Madrid, who are enduring a difficult season by their lofty standards. Otherwise, the Blaugrana host Leganes, Athletic Club, Espanyol, and Osasuna, neither of which should pose a threat to their nearly unblemished home record.

It’s away from home where Barcelona have struggled this season, posting a humble 5-3-5 record. They have a negative goal differential on their travels and have won just one of their last five away from home. Should those struggles continue, the door will be blown open in the title race, and the possibility of slipping up certainly exists given the difficulty of some of Barcelona’s remaining away fixtures.

They visit third-place Sevilla and eighth-place Villarreal, where they’ve won just one of their last three visits to El Madrigal. A trip to face struggling Celta Vigo isn’t as easy as it might appear either, given Barcelona are winless in their last five trips to Baladios, losing three of those.

However, there are two determining factors that could prove a saving grace for Barcelona, helping to salvage their poor away form. The first is that all matches will be played behind closed doors, mitigating home-pitch advantage. Second, all six of Barcelona’s away fixtures are against opponents in the bottom 10 of La Liga in terms of home points accrued this season.

Even a slight uptick in form away from home, coupled with their impervious success at Camp Nou, would be enough for Barcelona to stave off Real Madrid’s title challenge.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.