FAQ: Why the Lions aren't moving on from Matthew Stafford in 2020
Since being taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been one of the most recognizable Detroit Lions.
Yet this offseason, there have been rumors the Lions might try to move on from their all-time leader in almost every significant passing category.
Most of those notions were unsubstantiated, and general manager Bob Quinn made clear a report they were shopping Stafford was “100 percent false.” But for the past two seasons, there have been questions about Stafford’s long-term future in Detroit.
• Most recent mock: Kiper » | McShay »
• Kiper’s Big Board » | McShay’s Top 32 »
• First Draft podcast » | Draft order »
• Full class rankings from Scouts Inc. »
More NFL draft coverage »
Which is fair, considering he has had back injuries over those two campaigns. But it’s also not pragmatic, considering some of the mandates in place from the franchise’s ownership and a contract that would mean the Lions would spend more money to have him not be in Detroit this season than if he were on the team.
But to explain further why the Lions aren’t moving on from Stafford this year — and under what circumstances they might in the future — we’re here to help.
The Lions have won little with Stafford, so why keep him?
Yes, it’s true the Lions have yet to win a playoff game or a division title with Stafford, but that isn’t entirely the quarterback’s fault. While some of his seasons have been subpar, his offense has had a truly strong running game only once — in 2013, when Reggie Bush rushed for 1,006 yards.
Stafford also hasn’t been helped by questionable defenses in some of his better campaigns, including last season when he was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his back injury but was still 3-4-1 in his starts. Most of the issue came with a struggling defense, which has been another concern throughout large parts of Stafford’s career — except for 2014, when Stafford and the Lions had their best shot to be a real playoff contender but lost in the wild-card round to the Dallas Cowboys.
So many times throughout his career it has been proved that Stafford isn’t the problem. Combine that with how teams struggle to find quarterbacks in the league and getting rid of a proven signal-caller without a clear backup or succession plan makes little to no sense.
What about Stafford’s contract? That makes it harder to move him, right? What about after 2020?
Stafford’s contract would cost more for the Lions to trade him — $24.8 million — than for him to remain with the club in 2020. And it’s hard to see Detroit swallowing that massive cap charge for any player, let alone getting rid of one of their most productive players along with that amount. It’s one of the largest reasons a 2020 trade is a nonstarter on so many levels.
After 2020, though, moves are more plausible. He carries a $33 million cap hit in 2021, including $20 million in cash. His dead money of $16 million is more manageable for the club, and the cap savings of $17 million would make some sense as well. Of course, it’s not clear if a new collective bargaining agreement would scuttle things here.
Even so, it’s hard to see the Lions moving on from Stafford in 2021 unless one of a few things happen:
–He once again goes through an injury-plagued season.
–He doesn’t play well.
–If the Lions play so poorly that Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia are fired, leaving a new general manager/head coach combo to make a decision on Stafford. And in that scenario, they might opt for the complete rebuild, which could result in Stafford finding a new home by trade or release.
Why did the Stafford rumors start?
It’s a combination of the injuries, Detroit’s top-five draft pick and Alabama quarterback
