I wouldn’t say this is the best Chiefs team we’ve seen, but it might be the wiliest. Rarely dominant but never out of it, the Chiefs put together a series of spectacularly close victories in 2024. Holding on to a victory against the Ravens in Week 1 by the length of Isaiah Likely’s toenail portended what was to come all season. The Chiefs won games with fourth-down stops, field goals bouncing off uprights, kicks getting blocked and snaps being dropped. They found a way to sprinkle just enough magic dust into each victory. Their win over the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, a measure of revenge for Buffalo costing the Chiefs a chance at an undefeated regular season in November, was their 15th consecutive victory in games decided by seven points or fewer.

Can the Eagles deny the Chiefs from making history? A 2024 offseason for the ages has replenished Philadelphia’s roster, and it is the better team — on paper. That starts with the player who might be the story of the season, a running back Kansas City has to stop if it has any hope of winning another title: Saquon Barkley — Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer

Read more: Barnwell previews the Super Bowl (ESPN+)

Meet the teams

Coach: Andy Reid

Reid brings loads of playoff and Super Bowl experience. In 26 seasons — 12 with the Chiefs — Reid is 28-16 in the postseason and 3-2 in the Super Bowl. He was a finalist for the 2024 AP Coach of the Year award, an honor not usually given to the leader of a two-time defending Super Bowl championship team. The 2024 Chiefs were hit hard by injuries, had trouble at times protecting Mahomes and were inconsistent for much of the season on defense. But thanks in part to Reid, they are still one win away from winning a third consecutive championship.

How did they get here?

Getting to 17-2 (including two playoff victories) took a lot of work. Kansas City won 11 regular-season games plus the AFC Championship Game against the Bills by one score and at times was aided by an element of luck. But the Chiefs also showed a knack for making the right play at the right time. A blocked field goal on the final play to preserve a two-point win against the Broncos in Week 10 was anything but luck. — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter

Coach: Nick Sirianni

Sirianni is the first coach in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs in each of his first four seasons while reaching the Super Bowl multiple times. He guided the Eagles to the title game against the Chiefs in the 2023 season, a 38-35 Eagles loss. With a regular-season record of 48-20, Sirianni has the third-highest winning percentage (.706) by a head coach in the modern era (minimum 50 games), trailing only John Madden and George Allen.

How did they get here?

The Eagles got off to a shaky 2-2 start, testing the nerves of the fan base following a 1-6 collapse down the stretch last season. They became more of a Saquon Barkley-focused offense during the Week 5 bye, and that propelled them to a 10-game winning streak and a 14-3 regular-season record. Led by the NFL’s top rushing game and defense, Philadelphia earned the No. 2 seed in the NFC and won three straight postseason home games to punch its ticket to the Super Bowl, including a 55-23 thumping of the Commanders in the NFC title game. — Tim McManus, Eagles reporter

Read more: Reid says he’ll return as Chiefs coach in 2025 … Sirianni is a players’ coach, no matter what you think of him

QB breakdown

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Weakness: Accuracy. It’s funny that the consensus best quarterback of this generation is mediocre when it comes to accuracy, but it has been true for years. Mahomes recorded a minus-2 completion percentage over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His 14% off-target rate was 12th best, but that came while averaging just 6.2 air yards per target (third lowest) — shorter passes are much less likely to be off-target. Mahomes has had a negative completion percentage over expectation in every season since 2019. — Seth Walder, analytics writer

Ben Solak’s QB projections for Super Bowl LIX

Biggest questions

Can the Chiefs defend the Eagles’ tush push?

Judging solely by how they defended the Bills’ version of the play in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs have reason to believe they can hold up well. Josh Allen and Buffalo tried it six times against Kansas City but converted just twice. One stop came on fourth down at the Kansas City 41-yard line in the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs trailed by a point. They used the favorable field position to score the go-ahead touchdown.

“The [defensive] line has to be dominant,” defensive tackle Chris Jones said on how the Chiefs defended the play. “Your two [nose guards] and your two ends have to be physical on the inside.”

Kansas City hasn’t fared as well in defending Hurts on the tush push. He used it to score two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Hurts also used it to score the winning touchdown against Kansas City in the fourth quarter of a Week 11 regular-season contest in 2023. — Teicher

Read more: Chiefs’ biggest matchup questions

What do the Eagles need from receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to complement the run game?

They’ll need the kind of passing efficiency they received in the NFC Championship Game when Hurts went 20-of-28 for 246 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. It marked just the second time since mid-November that Hurts threw for 200-plus yards.

Questions persisted about the aerial attack for much of the season. The production did not match the kind of expectations that come with players like Brown, Smith, Hurts and tight end Dallas Goedert on the offense. But much of it was by design, as the coaching staff — armed with a dominant defense and ground game — leaned conservative with the pass to keep turnovers at a minimum. That approach has worked quite well: The Eagles have 10 takeaways to zero giveaways in the playoffs.

Hurts quipped after the NFC title game that Sirianni “let me out of my straitjacket a little bit,” allowing him to air it out to Brown and Smith more than usual. Sirianni should go into this matchup confident about Hurts, who had one of the best performances of his career in Super Bowl LVII (374 total yards, 4 touchdowns). Smith (7 catches, 100 yards) and Brown (6 catches, 96 yards, TD) were a big part of that. They’ll likely be called on again given that the Chiefs are sure to be focused on slowing down Barkley. — McManus

Read more: Eagles’ biggest matchup questions

Keys to a Chiefs win

Positional advantage: Quarterback

Mahomes’ success in critical moments of a game, plus his ability to create on scrambles, gives the Chiefs a definitive advantage at quarterback. His league-best QBR on third down in the regular season (90) jumped to 98 in the playoffs. Mahomes also converted 22 first downs as a runner on scramble attempts in the regular season, with five more in the playoffs. With his elite instincts to win on money downs, he can extend drives with his legs. The Eagles’ pass rush will certainly heat up the pocket and force him to move. — Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

Keys to an Eagles win

Positional advantage: Secondary

Since Week 6, when rookie slot corner Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup, the Eagles have allowed a league-low 5.2 yards per attempt and 171.9 passing yards per game. On the perimeter, corners Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay Jr. are sticky in coverage, with high-end closing speed. And safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship can play top-down on the ball, which is a seamless fit for coordinator Vic Fangio’s split-field schemes. This defensive unit has the personnel and the playcaller to create matchup advantages against the Chiefs’ wide receivers and tight ends. — Bowen

Breaking News from Adam Schefter

ESPN’s FPI has the Eagles winning 56.1% of the simulations — and they are favored to win by an average of 2.2 points.

This matchup is a showdown between two top-10 teams in FPI: the No. 5 Eagles (6.0) and the No. 6 Chiefs (3.9). The Eagles are fifth on offense and the Chiefs rank seventh. On defense, Philadelphia ranks first and Kansas City is 13th. The Chiefs were No. 2 in FPI in the preseason, while the Eagles were No. 5.

In the preseason, the Chiefs had the second-best chance to make the Super Bowl (18.9%) and the Eagles had the third-best odds (16.4%). Kansas City was given a 9.4% chance to win it, while Philadelphia was at 9.6%.

Who wins the game?

We asked 67 experts to weigh in on who will win. The Chiefs were picked by 41 of them (61.2%), while the Eagles claimed 26 votes (38.8%). The most common score predictions were 27-24 (picked by 10 of our experts), 27-23 (five) and 31-28 (five).

Read more: ESPN staff predictions

Of the 67 experts who weighed in, 37 (55.2%) picked Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. Mahomes (+105), Barkley (+275) and Hurts (+360) are the ESPN BET betting favorites. We asked a few experts to explain their MVP prediction.

Elizabeth Merrill, senior writer: Barkley. On Sunday, he turns 28, the year NFL running backs typically begin their declines, but Barkley has never looked better. He has been unstoppable in the postseason.

Jason Reid, Andscape senior writer: Mahomes. The NFL’s best player wants to become the greatest of all time by winning his fourth award.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter: Barkley. He is a near-unstoppable-force, averaging more than 150 rushing yards per game over his past five games. If the Eagles win, he’ll be the catalyst.

Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter: Mahomes has led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl titles and was named the MVP in each. He’s a proven champion who time and again has lifted his team to many improbable victories. It is unfathomable to predict anyone else but the star quarterback as the Most Valuable Player.

Seth Walder, analytics writer: Hurts. Quarterbacks — yes, I believe even those on the same team as Barkley — have such an edge in this market. If the Eagles do indeed win, it’s virtually certain Hurts will have made some big plays. And as long as the receiving production is spread out across a couple of players, the award will default back to him.

Read More: Experts predict Chiefs-Eagles score, MVP … Betting buzz: An O-lineman for MVP?

Stats to know

Team stats: Chiefs | Eagles

Chiefs

• Mahomes has four straight playoff victories when trailing at the start of the fourth quarter, which is the longest streak by a quarterback all time. It started against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

• Including the playoffs, Chris Jones ranks third in pass rush win rate (15.3%) among interior defenders despite ranking fifth in double-team rate (70%).

• This will be Reid’s 45th playoff game as a head coach (with the Chiefs and Eagles), passing Bill Belichick for the most all time. He is the first head coach to face his former team twice in the Super Bowl.

• The Chiefs have won nine straight postseason games dating to the 2022 postseason, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL postseason history. The Patriots won 10 straight from 2001 to 2005.

• Kansas City is wearing white jerseys for the second time in its three straight Super Bowl appearances. Dating to Super Bowl XXXIX in the 2004 season, the team wearing white jerseys has won 16 of the past 20 Super Bowls. The Chiefs wore red jerseys in their Super Bowl LIV and LVIII wins.

Eagles

• Hurts already has the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the postseason (nine). Another score will make him the ninth player all time to reach 10. Only two others have done that in the 21st century — Marshawn Lynch (12) and LeGarrette Blount (11).

• The Eagles need 27 points for the most in a single postseason in NFL history. The record was set by the 1994 49ers (131), who achieved the mark in one less game.

• There have been 36 players to see at least 75 targets in coverage this season, including the playoffs. DeJean and Mitchell rank second and third, respectively, in yards per target allowed as the nearest defender in coverage, trailing the Texans’ Derek Stingley Jr., per NFL Next Gen Stats.

• Barkley needs 30 yards to surpass Terrell Davis’ 1998 record for the most rushing yards in a single season (2,476), including the playoffs. Since Steve Spagnuolo became the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator in 2019, Kansas City has not allowed any player to rush for 100 yards against them in the playoffs.

• The Eagles finished the regular season with more rush attempts (621) than pass attempts (448). Out of the first 40 Super Bowl champions, 33 had more rushes than pass attempts in their Super Bowl winning seasons (83%). Since 2006, the 2013 Seahawks are the only team to do that.

Read more: Super Bowl LIX by the numbers: Key stats for Chiefs-Eagles … Super Bowl history: Facts, stats, and records to know

Bold predictions

Worthy will finish as the top wide receiver in receiving yards. The rookie’s speed and versatility are exactly what Reid will want to leverage against the Eagles, especially when he’s up against Mitchell. The Eagles could struggle to focus on shutting down one receiving playmaker for the Chiefs. Bracketing Travis Kelce or JuJu Smith-Schuster opens the door for Worthy to capitalize on one-on-one matchups. — Eric Moody, NFL analyst

Hollywood Brown will score the game-winning TD. Brown will have a big day, gathering at least 125 receiving yards. He will clinch Kansas City’s three-peat by finding the end zone with seconds to go. — Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

Super Bowl LIX betting: Chiefs-Eagles