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DJ Bien-Aime, ESPN
HOUSTON — The Texans on Thursday listed running back Joe Mixon as questionable with an ankle injury ahead of their divisional-round playoff matchup Saturday against the Chiefs.
Mixon did not practice Thursday after being limited in Wednesday’s practice.
This isn’t the first time he has had ankle issues. Earlier in the season he missed Week 3 through 5 after suffering an ankle injury in Week 2 against the Bears. He returned for a matchup against the Patriots in Week 6.
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Brooke Pryor, ESPN Staff Writer
PITTSBURGH — To Mike Tomlin, the Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t stuck.
To be stuck, he said Tuesday, would insinuate the organization is helpless, and he doesn’t feel that.
So does that mean he’s optimistic about the direction of the team after a fifth consecutive one-and-done postseason foray?
Not quite.
“I don’t know that I’m ready to be overly optimistic or sell optimism to you, either,” Tomlin said. “I’m just acknowledging what transpired and what has to happen and what is beginning to happen. And acknowledging the complexity and the amount of work that’s ahead of us.
What to know for the NFL playoffs
“Certainly feel capable, but definitely don’t feel in the mood for optimism or the selling of optimism. I don’t know that that’s appropriate.”
Where the Steelers are, in the head coach’s own words, is caught between helplessness and optimism.
The Steelers have won 80 regular-season games in the past eight seasons. They haven’t won a playoff game in that same stretch, going 0-5. Tomlin said Tuesday his players frequently joke with him about one of his favorite cliches: “Two is a pattern.” What about five?
The Steelers’ current system is designed to help them maintain stability. Under Tomlin, they’ve maintained a pristine 18-season stretch of non-losing seasons. Yet, those regular-season wins haven’t brought them closer to the upper echelon of the AFC — teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Because of those non-losing seasons, the Steelers consistently draft in the second half of the first round. This year, they have the No. 21 pick. And though third-year general manager Omar Khan has shown a willingness to be more aggressive on the trade market, an organization married to precedent has rarely shown a willingness to move the kind of capital needed to acquire a top-10, franchise-altering pick.
Tomlin vowed Tuesday there would be change, the kind inevitable after a 10-3 start collapsed into a 10-8 season and another first-round playoff exit.
“Although we’ve had similar results, rest assured that we’re not doing the same things and hoping for a different result,” he said. “We have adapted. We have altered our approach and we will continue because we’re not getting what we seek — and that’s the confetti game, is to be world champs.
“Our goals are really clear. It’s also really clear that we’re falling short of it, and we’re falling short of it in a consistent way. We’re still going to be open to adapting.”
In part because he signed a three-year extension before the 2024 season and told teams who might consider inquiring about his availability in a trade to “save your time,” Tomlin isn’t going anywhere. Still, there are other changes he and the organization can make to get the Steelers dislodged from a cycle of above-average — but not good enough — NFL seasons. Here are three to consider.
Trade an impact player — or two
Tomlin is off the trade market, but the Steelers have a handful of other valuable options that could be turned into premium draft picks. Linebacker
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From the time the Steelers acquired Fields and Russell Wilson last offseason, Wilson was the organization’s understood QB1. Though he jump-started the passing game once he finally returned from his calf injury, Wilson’s play dropped off down the stretch.
“Obviously it didn’t end the way we wanted it to, and I think there’s a lot more to do,” he told reporters Monday.
Wilson wants to be back in 2025, but the Steelers should be wary about committing resources toward a 36-year-old quarterback who was inconsistent and made questionable decisions in the most critical moments.
Though Fields’ time as the starter was brief, he showed promising signs as a mobile, dual-threat quarterback. Giving him a full offseason in “pole position,” to borrow Tomlin’s offseason phrase that described Wilson’s previous standing, could further develop him and give the offense a chance to mold around his skills.
“The way that he managed his professional circumstance was really impressive,” Tomlin said of Fields’ potential to be the Steelers’ 2025 starter. “I thought he brought an urgency to his day-to-day work regardless of his role. I thought he got continually better within our system of ball throughout the process. I thought the way he conducted himself makes that a legitimate thought or idea at this juncture.”
The Steelers should also explore the free agent and trade market — hello Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers — and they should also exercise caution and patience in the 2025 NFL draft. The Steelers reached for Kenny Pickett by taking him No. 20 in the 2022 NFL draft — one pick earlier than their slot this season. Not only did he not pan out, but it created an awkward situation with free agent acquisition — and immediate lame duck starter — Mitchell Trubisky. This quarterback class is arguably worse. The Steelers won’t land Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders unless they make a move to trade up into the top five.
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The wild-card round from the NFL playoffs is complete, and the divisional round matchups are officially set. In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans. The NFC matchups were locked Monday, as the Los Angeles Rams will go on the road to play the Philadelphia Eagles while the Detroit Lions will host the Washington Commanders.
To look ahead at those matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Chiefs and the Lions, who didn’t play this week, we asked Adam Teicher and Eric Woodyard to provide an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we also provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines from ESPN BET.
Let’s start with the No. 1-seeded Chiefs’ meeting with the Texans.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-KC | BAL-BUF
WSH-DET | LAR-PHI
AFC
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI projection: KC, 62.7%
Opening line: KC -8 (42.5)
Matchup background: The Chiefs and Texans faced off in Week 16, with Kansas City winning 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises was in the 2019 wild-card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to storm past Houston 51-31. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN
Stat to know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the divisional round, the most wins without a loss in any playoff round in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all of their starters and key role players on their active roster available for the divisional round. That includes defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15 because of a strained calf muscle. Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also recently missed time because of injuries but should be ready to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking an ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, has also been practicing and could be activated. — Adam Teicher
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What we learned about the Texans in the wild-card round: After an up-and-down regular season, the Texans got stellar contributions from all three phases in their 32-12 win over the Chargers. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards and running back Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross also blocked a punt and returned a blocked extra-point attempt for a score. — DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the biggest reason the Chiefs will win is that they’re playing the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since losing Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 on, the Texans rank 27th in EPA (expected points added) per play on offense — including negative EPA per play on dropbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs bring more than their fair share of strengths, too, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes but not ending with him. Earlier this season, one could make the argument the Chiefs were short on playmaking receivers. But today it’s a different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returned from injury and Xavier Worthy has shown growth late in the season. Plus, it’s at least possible tight end Travis Kelce has simply been saving his strength for the postseason. Add that offense to a defense that still boasts elite talents in Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. — Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their pass rush. As ugly as the Texans’ offense was for most of the season — and frankly, it wasn’t great in their win over the Chargers — their pass rush always gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% pass rush win rate in the regular season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. were both over 25% in that category Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and delivered a sack, too.) Those edge rushers against the Chiefs’ tackles represents one category in which the Texans — who are deserved underdogs — will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The back end of the defense matters, too. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had a great regular season and snagged two picks against Los Angeles. And don’t sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who didn’t allow a single reception as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. — Walder
When: ?Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)
FPI projection: BUF, 50.3%
Opening line: BUF -1 (51.5)
Matchup background: The Ravens and Bills faced off in Week 4, with Baltimore handing Buffalo a 35-10 loss — the third-worst margin of loss in quarterback Josh Allen’s career. Lamar Jackson and Allen have played each other only once in the playoffs, and Allen holds the advantage. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 in the 2020 divisional round. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Bills (30.9) and Ravens (30.5) averaged over 30 points per game during the regular season. This will be the seventh matchup in NFL postseason history between two teams that averaged at least 30 PPG during the regular season. — ESPN Research
What we learned about the Bills in the wild-card round: This team might not have peaked yet. Coming into the game against the Broncos, cornerback Rasul Douglas said the Bills still had not played their best, and Saturday’s win suggested he might be right. Buffalo scored 31 unanswered points, and the defense limited the Broncos to 2-of-9 on third down despite not forcing a takeaway, one of the unit’s strengths. But the Bills will look to avoid another slow start. — Alaina Getzenberg
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Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin praises the positivity of the team’s culture after its win over the Buccaneers.
What we learned about the Ravens in the wild-card round: Jackson has proved he can have early postseason success. In winning his past three playoff openers, he has recorded a QBR over 80, completed 70% of his pass attempts and thrown four touchdown passes to one interception. The challenge for Jackson has been the encore. In each of the past two playoffs, he has followed up a victory with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, 56% completion rate and one touchdown throw to two interceptions. — Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive the obvious answer here, but it’s just the reality. It’s fourth-and-short? Allen can deliver with his legs and barrel through a defense for a conversion. Third-and-long? He can unleash an absurd pass like his outrageous touchdown throw to Ty Johnson in the wild-card round (which actually came on fourth-and-1, but you get the idea). And he does all that while being the best in the NFL at limiting mistakes. He had the lowest sack rate (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover rate (1.2%) through the regular season.
And the fact that he plays behind an offensive line that ranked third in pass block win rate in the regular season — and allowed only two sacks against a great Denver defense — certainly helps. As does the support Allen receives from his running backs. No team generated more EPA on running back targets than Buffalo.
The Ravens could be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) again, and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if so. Though Baltimore has shown it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills’ defense was better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than the pass (20th against dropbacks). They did struggle against scrambles, which will be an issue facing Jackson. So the Bills are likely going to need plenty of points to beat Baltimore — with or without Flowers. — Walder
Why the Ravens will win: Their running attack borders on unstoppable. Baltimore showed it won’t hold back from using Jackson’s legs in the postseason — he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (kneels excluded) — and the combination of him and running back Derrick Henry makes life brutal for defenses. Read plays in the wild-card round were incredibly effective, as Steelers defenders were forced to account for both Jackson and Henry, resulting in fewer players in the path of the actual ball carrier.
To beat the Bills, however, it will require a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, that’s no longer an issue for the Ravens. Since they moved Kyle Hamilton back to primarily deep safety in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, postseason included. — Walder
NFC
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI projection: DET, 73.0%
Opening line: DET -8.5 (54.5)
Matchup background: The Lions and Commanders last faced off in Week 2 of the 2022 season. Quarterback Jared Goff helped Detroit earn a 36-27 win by throwing for 256 yards and four touchdowns. The last time Washington and Detroit met in the postseason was on Jan. 8, 2000 — before Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was born. Washington took that one 27-13. – ESPN
Stat to know: Daniels will face the Lions, who went 15-2 this season, tied with the Chiefs for the best record in the NFL. This will be the sixth time in the Super Bowl era that a rookie QB will face a team that had at least a share of the best record in the league. Only one of the previous five rookies won: Joe Flacco and the Ravens in 2008 against the 13-3 Tennessee Titans. — ESPN Research
Lions injury update: The Lions are expecting running back David Montgomery (knee), who missed the past three games, to return for the divisional round. Guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) and cornerback Terrion Arnold (foot) were both injured in their Week 18 home win over the Vikings, and Detroit coach Dan Campbell said he couldn’t guarantee that either will be playing. However, Campbell acknowledged, “It’s much better than it appeared to be when the injuries happened. So, it’s positive news.” — Eric Woodyard
What we learned about the Commanders in the wild-card round: Washington will be a tough out in the postseason because it has a young quarterback in Daniels who does not cave to pressure. Daniels has delivered all season in leading five game-winning drives. His poise and playmaking ability will scare any defense. Another key for Washington on Sunday was its defense, which limited Tampa Bay to 284 total yards and only 101 on the ground — 36 fewer than its average allowed. That must continue. — John Keim
Why the Lions will win: Overwhelming offensive force. The Lions enter the divisional round as clear favorites — as they should be, given the way this team can score points. Detroit ranked second in both EPA per play (0.17) and per drive (0.96) this season. And there’s no reason to think that success won’t continue. The Lions’ offense is healthy and rested after the team’s bye week. Plus, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has shown his creativity with lateral plays, receiver passes, offensive lineman receptions and everything in between all season long. Can you imagine what he has been saving for the playoffs? The question now is whether the Lions’ injury-marred defense can hold up. But the Lions have linebacker Alex Anzalone back, and the last time we saw their defense, it shut down Sam Darnold and the Vikings en route to an NFC North title in Week 18. — Walder Why the Commanders will win: Daniels can beat the blitz, which gives the Commanders a prayer. The Lions’ defense had its best game of the season in the finale against the Vikings, and it achieved that success via the blitz, bringing extra heat on 56% of Minnesota’s dropbacks to help make up for all the defensive injuries. But a similar game plan could backfire against the Commanders. As good of a rookie season as Daniels had, he was even better against the blitz with a 90.3 QBR (third best). The blitz increased the rate of deep shots Daniels took and allowed him to gain more yards on his scrambles. That could create the high-variance type of game the Commanders would like to play as heavy underdogs. Detroit could take a different tack, but that might expose its injury-induced weaknesses. Daniels’ excellence against extra rushers gives the Commanders an outside chance here. — Walder When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) Matchup background: Thanks to running back Saquon Barkley’s record-setting day (a franchise-best 255 rushing yards), the Eagles won the Week 12 matchup between these teams 37-20. What about the last time the Eagles and Rams met in the playoffs? Go back to Jan. 27, 2002, when the Rams were still in St. Louis. The Rams won 29-24 in the NFC Championship Game and ultimately lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI. — ESPN Stat to know: The Eagles have allowed 13 or fewer points in three straight games for the first time since 2017. They did it for four straight games that season (final two games of the regular season and first two playoff games) before the streak was snapped in their 41-33 Super Bowl LII win over the Patriots. — ESPN Research What we learned about the Eagles in the wild-card round: The defense is capable of carrying this team, even in the postseason. Vic Fangio’s group finished the regular season first in yards allowed per play (4.7) and second in points allowed (17.8 points per game). That dominance continued against the Packers and quarterback Jordan Love, who had gone seven-plus games without an interception but was victimized for three picks on Sunday. In a game in which Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts struggled to establish a rhythm following a two-week absence due to a concussion, the defense once again proved it is the most consistent unit on a team with championship hopes. — Tim McManus What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The Rams’ defense has grown leaps and bounds since their last game in this stadium. In Week 2, Los Angeles lost 41-10 to the Cardinals, a game head coach Sean McVay called “incredibly humbling,” saying, “there is not anything positive that I can take away from today.” But on Monday night, the defense continued its strong end to the regular season, holding the 14-win Vikings to nine points. The Rams sacked Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold nine times, led by defensive end Kobie Turner, who had two. — Sarah Barshop Why the Eagles will win: Their defense. Philadelphia can dominate at all three levels. Defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Milton Williams can create pressure from the interior, linebacker Zack Baun can generate stops against the run and the pass at the second level, and the secondary is capable of suffocating an opponent. That’s why the Eagles ranked second in EPA per play allowed (minus-0.05) in the regular season and why they beat the Packers in the wild-card round despite a somewhat anemic passing attack. And then there’s Barkley. It’s hard to forget about him. He has totaled 565 rush yards over expectation this season, including the playoffs (per NFL Next Gen Stats). And he could have had a heck of a lot more if he hadn’t taken a knee at the beginning of what could have been a house call in the final minutes against Green Bay. Barkley gives Philadelphia efficiency on the ground and is a safety net in case the passing game can’t find its rhythm again. — Walder Why the Rams will win: Their stars can carry them to victory. Puka Nacua’s total receiving yardage (990) in the regular season wasn’t all that gaudy. But on a per-play basis, he was absurd, with 3.7 yards per route run, the third-best mark since 2007. That he missed time in the regular season doesn’t matter now; he’s healthy and can take over a playoff game — as can quarterback Matthew Stafford. On the other side of the ball, defensive end Jared Verse will have his work cut out for him against Eagles offensive tackle Jordan Mailata. But Verse has a chance. He might be a rookie, but he totaled 50 pressures this season, tied for seventh most and more than Danielle Hunter, Jonathan Greenard or Khalil Mack. Verse and defensive tackles Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske are capable of putting Hurts under duress, especially because he holds the ball for 3.14 seconds on average, second most among qualifying quarterbacks. — Walde
FPI projection: PHI, 65.4%
Opening line: PHI -6 (44.5)What to know for the NFL playoffs
The Houston Texans on Tuesday waived wide receiver Diontae Johnson as they prepare for their divisional-round playoff game on Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Following the Texans’ wild-card playoff victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, Johnson was visibly upset in the locker room. He was fully dressed sitting at his locker staring in frustration because of a lack of playing time and targets. Running back Joe Mixon and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair tried to comfort and encourage him.
Johnson played only 15 out of the Texans’ 70 offensive snaps and received only one target. He finished the game with one catch for 12 yards.
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Johnson had three catches for 24 yards in two games with Houston after the Texans claimed Johnson off waivers from the Baltimore Ravens on Dec. 23. Baltimore had moved on from the receiver after he refused to enter a game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec. 1.
Before the Ravens waived Johnson, they suspended him one game for his refusal to play against the Eagles. Baltimore had acquired him in a trade with the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 29, but he played only 39 snaps for the team, catching one pass for 6 yards.
The Panthers acquired Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers before the season. He had 30 catches for 257 yards and three touchdowns for Carolina when he was dealt to the Ravens.
The Steelers drafted Johnson in the third round of the 2019 draft and he had 391 catches for 4,363 yards and 25 touchdowns in Pittsburgh. He earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2021 with his lone 1,000-yard season and a career-high eight touchdown receptions in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s final year.
ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime contributed to this report.
